Manuel Lopez Obrador (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrés_Manuel_López_Obrador), former mayor of Mexico City, will be running next year as the presidential candidate of the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partido_de_la_Revolución_Democrática), and is widely considered the front-runner. If he becomes president, what will that mean for Mexico’s relations with the U.S.? What would Obrador want to change in our countries’ relationship? And how would the U.S. government react? We’re already on very bad terms with one Latin American country – Venezuela – because its freely elected president is a leftist. But our government couldn’t shun Obrador – so long as NAFTA lasts, we’re committed to a close trading relationship with Mexico. So long as NAFTA lasts . . . would Obrador want to pull out of it, or demand changes in its terms? Just how leftist is he, anyway? And how leftist is the PRD?
I suspect that he, just like virtually every other leftist Central and South American leader of the last decade (other than Chavez of Venezuela), would move speedily towards the center, if elected. Obrador’s going to want good relations with the colossus on his northern border. I don’t expect that he would abrogate NAFTA, encourage illegal immigation, become too chummy with Castro, or do anything too radical which would draw the U.S.'s ire.
Unlike Vicente Fox, he might not get many invitations to the Bush ranch in Crawford, though…
Maybe. Subcommander Marcos of the Zapatista rebels – who formerly supported the PRD – apparently is now disillusioned with them and with Obrador. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/08/08/wmexi08.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/08/08/ixworld.html