Unless I’ve missed something, it doesn’t seem like U.S. media has been paying much attention to this election. I’m curious how that will change in the next few days.
What is Obrador likely to do to confront the problems facing Mexico? It appears he has the support of the voters in dealing with corruption and the cartels but does he really have a chance of success once he takes office?
Given Obrador is a leftist I doubt he will cozy up to President Trump.
I admit that I know next to nothing about Mexico politics and Obrador, but if this guy is a true left-wing populist as he’s described, then it’s a terrible sign. Trump could be kicking off a wave of anti-Americanism in Latin America, which would not go well for us at all, despite what the MAGAbots believe.
But creating new enemies, creating new demons actually could play to Trump’s advantage when it comes to domestic politics. This is what authoritarians do. They outrage people, they demonize “the other” both foreign and domestic, and they terrorize and humiliate and dare “the other” or others on their behalf to fight back. And then they claim to be victimized, and that we need emergency rules and “protections” for the loyalists.
If you’re American and you’re not shitting in your pants, you should be.
AMLO was a fairly successful mayor of Mexico City for five years. He has run in the last few elections. His ideas are generally left wing, so wealthy Mexicans did not vote for him in the last few Presidential elections. He is considered personally honest and clean, though this may not be true of some of his backers.
He has backed away from some of his more extreme past ideas — he now claims to support NAFTA, which he has criticized, for example. He has offered a vague amnesty to minor criminals and may be the best hope for reducing violent crime and corruption, which is considerable. This, many wealthier Mexicans supported him this election.
I personally think he was the best of the candidates and wish Mexico well. He has his work cut out for him.
Crime and corruption are the major issues from what I know. Reducing the power of the cartels seems the obvious answer to improve the situation but how to do that is the question. Systemic corruption has deep roots I’m afraid.
Overdramatic much? Would you be this agitated if the NDP won a majority in Canada or France elected a Socialist president? AMLO’s not some new insurgent. He’s run before, and he was probably most credible candidate with the largest, most enthusiastic base.
My comment has nothing to do with Mexico’s populism; it’s our populism that I am concerned about. I have several concerns actually.
One is that the rift between the US and Mexico is no longer a matter of policy disputes between two heads of state or two governments. It’s out in the streets now. Again I don’t claim to know much about Mexican politics, but I think it’s probably fair to read this result as a grassroots middle finger to the American people who either voted for Trump or who have not done enough to stop him. I’ve read a number of comments to the effect that Americans will eventually grow tired of Trump, wake up, and change direction in 2020, and all will be well again. Well guess what, whether it’s all well again isn’t strictly up to Americans, and it’s pretty damn arrogant to assume that it is. Trumpism is damaging not just our formal relations with international partners, but also how ordinary people view ordinary Americans. It is threatening to create a wave of intense anti-Americanism. Yes, this could result in economic harm to Mexico, but from their perspective, they probably already feel like they’re getting screwed, so they probably figure that it’s best to at least put up a good fight. And oh by the way, don’t think China and Russia haven’t noticed.
But back to the comments toward the end of my previous post, in addition to this election result being indicative of souring US-Mexico relations, it is also the first sign of something even more ominous: a transition from world order that is governed by international cooperation to one that is increasingly governed by global competition. That is going to have profound consequences, and this is also something that becomes part of an authoritarian feedback loop. Making Mexico into an enemy is a stupid idea and potentially disastrous for many ordinary Americans, but in case you have been living under a rock for the past month, Donald Trump and his supporters have been gleefully demonizing and terrorizing Latin American migrants. Trump has actually used the words “infest” and “invade” to characterize their presence in the United States and to justify his draconian custody policies. My point is, it is obvious that certain people view this kind of demonization and daily outrages as advantageous to their cause. Any student of political history can understand why. What’s happening in America right now is eerily similar to what happens in other authoritarian societies. If you don’t like Nazi Germany comparisons, fine, there are probably other examples that serve as adequate parallels.
Well, is he a leftist like Castro ( Cuba ), and Nicolás Maduro ( Venezuela )?
Let’s hope not.
Mexico needs the USA badly. 85% of their exports go to the USA. So if Obrador wants better relations with the USA he’d better consider Trump’s agenda. Mexico is not doing enough to prevent hardcore drugs or their criminal element from crossing the border into the USA.
Mexico’s own border security / illegal immigration control to the southern boarder is more stringent that ours.
It’s really not. Mexican voters have much closer targets for their middle finger. Internal corruption is a real problem. Transparency International ranks them in a tie for 123rd out of 176 countries for the absence of corruption. They score a 30 out of 100. In comparison, the US is ranked 18th with a score of 76. Canada is 10th with a score of 82. Russia and Kazakhstan come in just behind Mexico with a score of 29.
One party, the PRI, maintained control for 71 years through the use of a relatively overt patronage system. That control ended in 2000 but there’s still real issues. Check out this story about campaign financing and corruption from Reuters Friday.
That’s before we even get to the issue that a decent chunk of the country has rule of law subverted by cartels. Using a combination of bribes, threats of violence, and outright violence they’ve made the rule of law tenuous in their areas of operation. The untrustworthiness of state and below institutions led Mexico to commit the federal military to address the problem in 2006. It’s still fighting. The cartels assassinated 132 politicians during this election cycle along with likely spending significant amounts of money to influence outcomes. (Cite)
Mexico has real and serious long term problems that have absolutely nothing to do with Trump. Those problems predate Trump. Likely they will outlive Trump’s tenure. Sometimes it’s not all, or even mostly, about the US.
He is a leftist but not like in Cuba or Venezuela. For one, he isn’t an authoritarian and secondly he was elected in a free and fair election.
DinoR already said much of what I was thinking in his post above but I will add - the reason Obrador got elected has little to do with Trump and the USA and more to do with the people being sick and tired of corruption and how the rule of law has been subverted by the cartels. This is what I am interested in discussing here - what can/should AMLO do to start to change this situation? What instituional changes can realistically be made? Does he have any chance to bring about real and lasting change in these areas?
And none of that is AMLO’s fault, nor a reason to vote for one of his less popular and less credible rivals. I am less worried with AMLO in the seat than I’d be with a rank amateur, a fascism-conciliatory right-winger, or an unpopular & corrupt PRI hack. The USA having a mobster-fascist in power is no excuse for other countries to do the same,* and a right-wing Mexican President wouldn’t suddenly be Trump’s friend anyway. * Fascism doesn’t build successful internationalism.
I guess that was a bit of oversimplification on my part - I was reacting to the news this morning, processing it, and viewing it through the Trump prism. But there’s clearly a lot more going on internally within Mexico, and it certainly was the main driver behind the results. Major sea-change elections are almost always about domestic politics.
I would submit, however, that there’s definitely a risk of friction between Mexico and the US, but I suppose there was always that risk with Nieto. It’ll be interesting to see if AMLO is a grenade thrower or a pragmatist.
I was catching up on my downloaded news last night. (I mostly download RSS feeds to ebooks to be read later.) WaPo had this article on Saturday about AMLO’s approach to the cartel/security based piece of the puzzle. (my bolding)
I’d describe his campaign as still being in the brainstorming phase with respect to internal security. That really only addresses the last question I quoted. Without at least the solid framework of a plan to implement, lasting change is hard. Hey, he managed a catchy slogan…who needs a plan?
I vaguely STR that the cartels mostly focus their efforts on local and state level governments or federal security forces working in their area. That at least opens a window for working on the systemic political corruption at the national level as a separate issue. Not being from either of the two major parties could make it more difficult. On the other hand, losing to him might give them some impetus to enact at least some changes to win back the Presidency in 6 years. I haven’t seen anything specific on that issue.
Not speaking specifically to Mexico but to tackle that level of corruption, I’m pretty sure you need a well targetted purge of officials and an opening of the books. Followed by a ruthless crackdown on top criminals and leniency for cooperative underlings. It’s likely impossible that in the foreseeable future that criminal gangs won’t have significant influence but you can hope to make it only the criminals willing to “play nice”.
