Handicapping the Mexican election

On Sunday, July 2, the Mexicans will elect a new president and Chamber of Deputies.

Leading presidential candidates:

Felipe Calderon (PAN)

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Alliance for the Welfare of All (PRD,PT, Convergence))

Roberto Madrazo (Alliance for Mexico (PRI, PVEM)

Who’s it gonna be?

And will the composition of the Deputies change?

As long as it’s someone more honest than Fox, then more power to them. Sadly, I don’t really see that happening.

What’s dishonest about Fox? (And does it reflect on his party’s candidate, Calderon?)

Well, not exactly dishonest. He’s a hypocrite. I should’ve used that word instead. He’s especially a hypocrite when it comes to illegal immigration issues.

Unfortunately, if history is any guide, regardless of who wins, Mexico will lose.

How so?

He whines about illegal immigrants to the US from Mexico being deported while at the same time his government deports illegal immigrants from its southern border. That’s just one example.

Hypocrisy, or gored ox? :slight_smile:

Meh. That’s pretty mild equivocation as far as leaders of Latin American countries go. In anycase, I doubt whoever is elected is going to do much directly about illegal immigration. Best we can hope for on that front is someone that will make Mexico a more attractive place to live.

Don’t know too much about the candidates, I know earlier Obrador was favored but that he has lost some steam in the interm and is tied with Calderon.

In anycase, the simple fact that there is a contested election is a good thing, as it makes it less likely Mexico will fall back into the one-party system it used to have.

What else is he a hypocrite about?

How about dealing with corruption?

How about it? What has Fox done or not done that makes him a hypocrite on corruption? Please be specific amd include cites.

But aren’t all rulers hypocrites? I’m no historian, didn’t even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I cannot remember a “golden” head-of-state in my lifetime.

I talked to my buddy in Merida and he’s voting for PAN candidate Calderon.

Now please don’t blast me and tell me he’s stupid for voting this way. He tried to explain, but I don’t get the nuances of Mexican politics.

To him, PAN is just the “less worst”, his words. He compares Obrador to Chavez in Venezuela and says Madrazo is the “old party no one wants to hear about anymore”.

To him, Congress needs cleaning up and the President is just the lesser of the evils so he will vote for status quo. He says under the current PAN president Fox that at least they have economic stability and has little faith that the policies of the other parties will make it better.

He really sounds depressed over the whole deal. He loves Mexico, calls it “his beautiful country”, but has little faith in any of the politicians.

FWIW, he is what I’d guess to be middle income. He has a good job, but not wealthy.

You know, I’ve often seen PAN described in the (American) media as a “conservative” party, but I’ve never been clear on what that means in a Mexican context. Law-and-order conservative? Libertarian conservative? Social-cultural-religious conservative? Big-business-interests conservative?

Which cites are you not going to castigate? Last time anyone went through a similar exercise with you, you lambasted them because the sites weren’t Spanish enough for your taste.

Just post cites that you feel justify your comment in the above post. How can I agree or disagree if you are unwilling or unable to substantiate your claims.


Leave out the libertarian-conservative and put Social-cultural-religious conservative in bold.

It still seems to be a very tight race between Calderon and AMLO but it appears to me AMLO has a slight edge. I also think the comarisons of AMLO to Chavez are ridiculous. AMLO may be very liberal but he’s not an extremist. Plus the political situation in Mexico is far different than Venezuela.

In what respects?

That’s what I mean about me not knowing the nuances of Mexican politics. My buddy and I rarely discuss politics, but I’d say he is fairly liberal compared to a conservative American. Where that places him in the Mexican spectrum, I can’t say. I know he hates GWB, but these days that says little about one’s political affiliation.

The military doesn’t involve itself in the political process. No coups or attempted coups IIRC since the late 1930s.

Comparatively little political violence, especially when it comes to presidential politics.