Thanks for the cites monty.
The election’s today! Last chance to place your bets!
$20 on PRD.
Apparently it’s still too close to call. (Perhaps they’re hung up on those butterfly ballots and hanging chads in Sonora . . .)
Now Calderon’s ahead! (Flashing on November 2000 . . .)
I’m intimately familiar with Mexican politics, not as much as a native perchance, but in a very educated matter. I’m in Mexico now, and I went with my wife and inlaws to cast their votes for Calderon. We’re all PANistas. I was also present for Fox’s election, an election that destroyed 71 years of corrupt, single-party rule (the now dying [we hope] PRI). I also had the pleasure of shaking his hand at his ranch in Guanajuato on Christmas day in 2001 – that doesn’t give me credibility, but I’m proud of it nonetheless.
I can’t offer a lot of cites, because anything I cite will be contestable by any party – this is politics, after all!
In fact, I’m still in Mexico now, and I spent Sunday night and last night (Wednesday, recount night) glued to the television just like I did in 2000 and 2004 for our own (USA) presidential elections.
Hence, I’ll try to explain briefly the differences, and I’ll try to come back to answer followup questions to the best of my ability.
Back in 1910 or so the Mexican revolution began. After 11 (I think) “reelections” of Porfidio Diaz, people got fed up and revolted. He was deposed, and eventually what is now the PRI (the Institutional Revolutionary Party) became the ruling party, the “official” party of the state. Now say what you will, but imagine the USA under the rule of either the Republicans or the Democrats for 71 years without a change or possibility of a change. Either party would end up corrupting the entire country, and that’s what became of Mexico. Oh, Porfidio’s reign is also why there are no re-elections anywhere in the country (there’s street in Hermosillo called the “Avenue of No Re-elections”!).
There’s a lot of press about the PRD loss in 1988. The PRD is Lopez “Pendejo” Obrador’s party (yeah, I’m biased, okay? – this is GD). Some bogus computer crash really did rob the PRD of its win against the PRI. That’s what the PRI was all about. Their president was decided by “dedazo,” that is, “I point at you to follow me.”
The PAN (National Action Party, the part of Fox and Calderon) changed that from the inside. The PAN had slowly gained governerships in central states, and they made a difference! By the time the 2000 elections came about, the country was ready to vote for the PAN nationally – it was helped by the PRI’s grudging acceptance of international observers to ensure that the election was clean. Fox won.
Now lots of people call Fox a hypocrite over the immigration issue. Plainly, though, it’s not a federal issue. The federal government wasn’t publishing comic books on how to cross the border and survive – certain state governments did so. Mexico’s a federal republic – just as Bush can’t give Jennifer Granholm the swift kick in the ass she deserves, Fox can’t control anything beyond the federal government. This brings me to my next point – Fox’s PAN also never had majority control of the Congress (Senate and House of Deputies). You think our aisle separates two immature groups of congresspeople? You should watch the Diputados and Senate in action on Mexican TV. They behave like a bunch of children, and make catcalls to the current speaker! Where’s there’s no respect, how do you expect to make grand changes?
All of that aside, Fox did several great things for the country. First off, he managed to pay for socialized medicine. Socialized medicine is guaranteed in the Mexican constitution, but it really doesn’t exist univerally because it’s just not funded. Fox managed to include (at the very least) the most poor in the country. Also his system of micro-loans has eliminated a fair portion of unemployment and unemployment amongst the poor – this is a system whereby loans are made to women to encourage proprietorship of some type of sustainable micro business. Okay, these are small things – how about paying foreign debt? Remember how our government made loan guarantees to our banks to rescue Mexico during the PRI’s mismanagement that caused the financial crisis back in ‘94? Mexico is one of the few Latin American countries that actually bothers itself to pay back! That coupled with true, financial security is something that other, PRI presidents have never offered. While we’ve been through a recession, Mexico has grown 2% every year since Fox’s election – this isn’t as good as it could have been, but remember to consider the combative congress. Above all when it comes to immigration, remember that the poor guy has an entire friggin’ country to run; he can’t be at the beck and call of George Bush all the time (also remember that their big immigration conference was preempted by 911 which changed the entire scenario for both sides).
Okay, enough defending Fox – you’d see the difference had it been six more years of the PRI. 
The electoral process, then. International observers are calling this the cleanest election in Mexico’s history. It’s easy to be transparent (everything in the government here is about “transparency”) because they’re conducted on a national basis by the IFE – the Federal Electoral Institute – and it’s the same ground rules everywhere and the same set of ballots everywhere. Contrast this with the situation in the USA (although as a Federalist, I generally agree with our own electoral college system better). So, you show up at the cassilla – the poll – and show your federal voter identification card (no, it’s not like our Social Security card; it’s used only for elections), of which there is an identical copy in their ledger. You prove you’re you in front of the IFE volunteer and the party representatives, and they give you three, full sized 8.5x11 sheets which constitute three separate ballots – these first three being governer, mayor, and some other post (different from place to place). They put a mark on your thumb indicating you’ve received your ballots (you can’t make it come off; we’ve tried). You go into the both, make your X, and put the three separate ballots into three separate boxes. The representatives there ensure your folded, secret ballot goes into the correct, color-coded box. Even Miami Floridians couldn’t screw this up. Next, you identify yourself again for the federal election; same routine: thumb mark, three ballots (Senado, Diputados, and Presidente), and the color-coded boxes. You’re done. You don’t have to cast a ballot; some people who don’t want to vote take them with them. Later, with the IFE and all party representatives present, the ballots from a single box are counted and a tally sheet document is made and affirmed; this is what constituted the recount that began on Wednesday. There’s no provision in the law to open the envelopes again, since all party members were present. It’s almost foolproof, the entire system.
There was some cause for concern about missing certifications, improperly reported as missing ballots. This was blown out of proportion, because from the very beginning the IFE said that there’d be no results, too close to call. The recount was scheduled and broadcast as taking effect on the very night of the election. The “missing ballots” were to automatically be counted in the recount. The “missing ballots” consisted of certification documents that were illegible or damages, and these envelopes were opened and counted on an individual basis with everyone present.
So, now IFE’s officially proclaimed Calderon the winner. The leftists, meanwhile, have this wierd idea that there was fraud (no evidence) and now want to march on the capital! Why is it only leftists that want to do stuff like this?
In any case, there’s no runoff; the winner is by plurality. This means that 2/3 of the country didn’t want Lopez Obrador, and admittedly almost 2/3 didn’t want Calderon, either. See what happens when there’s no electoral college? Yeah, yeah, Bush robbed you all in 2000, but it’s the rule of law in either case. There’re going to be problems.
Mexico is divided financially and geographically, and they almost coincide. The central and above is wealthy with about 50% middle class. Not like the States, of course, but affluent enough. From the central and below, though, there’s not a whole lot of economic development. You can see how the 16 northern states went for Calderon and the 16 lower states went for Obrador.
The PRD is a quasi-communist party. Not just leftist, but truly quasi-communist. Obrador makes things worse, though, because he has no real principals. He’s a populist. What does that mean? He doesn’t give a shit about anything but his own power, and so “bribes” the people by promising them anything they want in return for their support. That’s what a populist does. No love of country. No common sense. No sense of the greater good. He only proposes the easy, popular solutions that the poor, uneducated of the country vote for in their own selfish interest.
The PAN is a conservative party – the enemy calls them right wing. With derision the majority of Dopers would equate them to our own Republican party. They’re the party of people that provide jobs, that have jobs, and that pay taxes.
Oh, taxes. Tax evasion is a national pastime. That’s another thing Fox did. He applied value added taxes to all sorts of things. But it wasn’t a tax increase, because with proper receipts it was all completely deductible from your income taxes. The only people that suffered were tax evaders.
Remember that I said the PAN got its start on the state level (and also the municipal level). There’s a reason for their success – they facilitated employment! They facilitated the 50% middle class rate in the north (and 30% middle class in the entire country). If the dirt farmers in the south would vote in the PAN, they’d be better off, too.
For the good of Mexico, then, we have a populist, isolationist idiot that wants to nationalize industry and resources, or an Ivy League educated economist, sophisticated, person of the world that understands that Mexico depends on world trade for its stability and survival and general well-being. This truly isn’t a simple decision between Rupublicans and Democrats whereby very little is likely to change any way. These are two, complete, polar opposite philosophies!
For our sense of ego in the USA, who’s better? Well, Obrador would stem emigration from Mexico by paying the poor $80 per month. 
Calderon will do his best to encourage economic growth for people to have jobs and not need to invade the United States. Even when cynical, which is the better option? Calderon was educated in the United States; isn’t it a good thing to have someone that knows us in charge of our neighbor to the south?
Calderon knows he didn’t carry a majority. He’s reached out the olive branch of peace in order to form a coalition. Lopez “Pendejo” Obrador has only indicated that he’s going to have the unwashed masses marching in the streets. Who’s got the better sense of logic and decency here?
Oh, a couple of more things – I met the ex Senate Majority leader a few years ago: Carlos Medina (PAN). At the time I thought he’d be the next president. Since campaigning and primaries began two years ago, he lost out, and is now retired. Remember me talking about “dedazo”? Even Fox’s favorite son never survived the primary! Talk about a revolution!
Couple more points in Fox’s favor: there’s now freedom of the press! It didn’t exist under the PRI. There’s investment in infrastructure! There are attempts at commercializing the horribly corrupt, inefficient, state-run petroleum industry. I mention these because Calderon pretends to follow up most of these initiatives.
Because we’re become very populist in the United States, immigration is in the news a lot, so of course we’re all focused on the immigration/emigration problem when it comes to Mexico’s future leadership. It’s vastly more important to our own national interests that we support a Mexican Presidency that’s a lot more about emigration. What’s good for Mexico is good for the United States in soooo many aspects beyond the problem with illegals.
I hope all of the above isn’t very disjointed; it’s very important to me and I’m a little more emotional about it than the average white-guy gringo. That said, I’ll try to answer any questions in a legitimate manner with some potential editorializing. Anything I can’t explain in the law or culture, well, I’m with my Mexican inlaws for the time being, and they’re more than happy to lend me a hand.
Actually, that’s what happens when you have no instant-runoff voting. (The EC system does nothing to ensure a candidate most people apparently dislike won’t get elected. We’ve had several “minority presidents” in our history.)
Balthisar, tell us what you know about the Bribiesca Sahagún clan and whether Calderón will make sure that they will be thoroughly investigated. I have big doubts.
And while you’re at it explain the Diego Hildebrando Zavala Gómez del Campo mess.
Could you explain all that for the sake of us gringos?
Sorry, I should have posted it over here
Calderon now has officially been declared the winner, but Obrador says he’ll challenge the result before the electoral tribunal next week. He also is calling for street protests on Saturday.
As a Mexican you’re more able to explain the intricate details. As I see it, Fox’s step kids have been investigated (or are currently being investigated), and there’s nothing there that ties back to Fox or to Marth Sahagún (Fox’s wife; the Sahagún “clan” [such a harsh word for this little incident!] are her offspring). It’s really just so much muck raked up by Obrador’s party.
As a further note, George Bush isn’t able to stop his underage daughters from getting caught with fake ID’s. The Sahagún’s are at the age of majority; they’re free to make their own mistakes – if the case is proven.
Diego Hildebrando, then, is the brother-in-law of Felipe Calderon. There’s a lot of talk that Diego’s business didn’t start booming until Felipe become the secretary of energy – kind of like the Halliburton issues in Iraq. In both cases, nothing’s been proven. All the same, this is pseudo-news proposed by the PRD to make Calderon look bad.
In both of these cases, notice that no one’s able to find any dirt on neither Vincente Fox nor Felipe Calderon? Instead they have to go looking at family members outside of anybody’s control, none of which has had a real case proven against them yet.
There’s not a whole lot of muck to rake about the PRD yet; they’ve only had substantial/meaningful power in Mexico City, and we all know it’s a safe, charming place to live and work – NOT!
That does not make it “pseudonews” in either case.