Claudia Sheinbaum is widely predicted to win by a relative landslide. In either case conservative valued Mexico is fairly certain to elect their first woman president and Sheinbaum does win their first nominally Jewish one. She does seem to have some divergence with her mentor Lopez Obrador.
Anyone well informed who wants to guess the final results and if Sheinbaum does prevail how she will change policies if at all?
I mentioned this yesterday in a Nikki Haley thread — that Mexico is almost sure to beat the US to having a female head of state/government.
What about our other neighbor, Canada? Have they ever had a female PM? (head of gov’t)
Yes, but for only literally 5 months. Keeping in mind that the US and Mexico elect that person, Canada does not except indirectly.
Thanks for making these threads. I try to stay abreast of world affairs but I was completely oblivious that an election was going on, I was somehow more aware of South Africa’s and the issues there.
Exit polling has Sheinbaum well in the lead.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-06-02/mexico-presidential-election
And apparently the numbers of citizens wanting to vote in the Mexican diaspora, especially in America, was more than planned for.
Some speculation on how she will be as president:
The Mexican consulate here in Chicago was unprepared for the strong turnout, which led to long lines, with no available restroom facilities for those waiting in the multi-hour line to vote.
While the US has increasing legislation hurting women, increasing antisemitism and rampant climate change denial, Mexico elects a Jewish female climate scientist as President. In a time when crime is one of their major problems, I am honestly surprised at the fact that the top two candidates were women. I wish her luck.
Can you explain your reasoning here? I’m not certain of the connection between their being women and crime as an issue.
Mexico elects its first female President! Although this is not a surprise as she was the chosen successor of the current leader, I would never have guessed this would happen in Mexico before the United States. She has a lot of work to do.
There was a short thread about the campaign here. I felt this symbolic event deserved its own thread. After all, it’s not like there is only one thread on Trump, or on American politics.:
Is she conservative, liberal, or something else?
Good for them. America chose a female president in 2016, but the Electoral College still worked out for a man.
She’s also Jewish and a scientist. Historic for a few reasons.
She won in a landslide but the other major candidate was also a woman.
Her party (and that of the incumbent) is a consolidation of mostly left-of-center and social progressive movements:
Many outside observers would expect that crime as an issue would favor presenting a “tough man” kind of candidate. But it seems like in Mexico it’s social and economic issues that are decisive and in both major parties they wanted someone who represented change from the usual dudes — the other major contender, Senator Xochitl Galvez, is a woman of indigenous roots and a small-business-to-tech-CEO success story.
As to crime per se Sheinbaum’s term as Mexico City mayor saw a sharp deop in violent crimes and that was a major part of her campaign.
By Mexican standards, Sheinbaum would be considered left wing. There were two other major candidates. The second most popular party, which historically ruled Mexico for many years, also had a female candidate - so choosing a female President was largely guaranteed. Mexico is a very Catholic and somewhat conservative country. The election of a Jewish female scientist is not the most obvious choice. However, I am glad to see it. The Mexicans I personally know are pretty progressive, follow global trends closely, and are keen to be seen in a positive light.
The current leader Obrador is very popular among many Mexicans, plenty of whom consider him personally incorruptible. A gifted populist, the papers report he continues to live in a humble residence, eschewing extensive security and the Presidential Palace; indeed turning its grounds into a public park.
Despite economic challenges, significant security issues and Covid (Obrador preached calm, avoided heavy spending, largely left it up to Mexican States to take significant actions) his popularity remains largely intact and this is proven with Sheinbaum’s victory. Supply chain concerns and proximity the US have made recently Mexico a very attractive choice for foreign investment.
Galvez, the major opposition candidate, was a bit more precisely, the candidate of Frente Amplio, made up of the PAN, PRI and PRD opposition parties. PRI had been in power for years but she is in PAN.
True. But PAN candidates (Fox, Calderón) were in national power from 2000-2012, and the party still does well in several Northern Mexican States. So I’m sticking with my succinct statement.
It is well worth viewing the movie La Ley de Herodes about traditional Mexican politics if you enjoy political comedy, such as Yes Minister or Servant of the People.
Apparently there had been some effort to play on antisemitic tropes based on her Jewish heritage; they just didn’t get much traction. She has dealt with heritage in very matter of fact ways:
Galvez also apparently tried to play up her Catholicism, faith, and indigenous roots. Sheinbaum just ignored any baiting.
Mexicans are much more tolerant than is often supposed.
I might add that in Mexico abortion up to 12 weeks is legal nationwide and not criminalized, which is a recent development, altho several states have enacted more restrictive rules.
My reasoning at being surprised that there were two female candidates I think is due to my thinking of Mexico as a largely Catholic and therefore patriarchal society. I would expect the prevailing sentiment to be that men deal with things such as war and crime while women are more concerned with the home, education, health care etc. These divisions occur in the US which is less of a patriarchal society. I think of the Doges of Venice who tended to be male in times of war but were sometimes female in peacetime, I guess I have become disillusioned about women gaining equal rights here and have extrapolated it to other countries.