First of all, I have not seen this as a thread (but it needs to be one obviously).
If there is another thread, could the Mods please close this one with a link to the other one?
Second, everything about this stinks of a Kremlin power grab. The US doesn’t assassinate people anymore because technology makes it too easy to track the source making it pointless and stupid.
Third, Hungary is directly to the south & in Putin’s pocket.
Fourth, this directly exposes other NATO countries… especially Poland, which would be at risk on two sides with water on a third side.
Fifth, while I wasn’t alive at the time… something something something … Arch Duke Ferdinand … something something something Serbia.
TL:DR- This is some Very Scary Shit to be contemplating on a Wednesday.
I mean it’s definitely a possibility. But skimming his Wikipedia page he seems to lean pro-Russian, so it’s not super likely:
However, there could be some nuance or change in his policies and recent decisions that isn’t reflected in the Wikipedia page that mean Putin was unhappy with him.
I am curious as to why the Kremlin would assassinate a politician in a NATO country who’s identified as a Russian ally. I’m not sure exactly what that buys them; wouldn’t it make more sense to whack someone who’s in the way of your allies?
Also, Slovakia has a parliamentary system, and the Prime Minister isn’t popularly elected. So yeah, you take out the head of government, but all it takes to get another one is for the party/coalition in charge to appoint one, so it’s not really as crippling as you might think.
If I had to speculate, I’d almost bet this is the opposite of the Kremlin getting him, and rather someone who feels threatened by Russia’s actions in Ukraine deciding to remove someone else who they perceive as a threat.
Plus, the Russian assassinations and attempts of late have been more sophisticated than mere shootings, so that’s also a consideration.
It could also be a false flag attack by russia. Normally suggesting that at this early stage when the facts aren’t known would be a conspiracy nutjob move. But when Putin is involved that’s always an option
A “false flag attack” would presage and serve as justification for an invasion. Slovakia, a NATO member nation, is to the east of Ukraine…you know, the country that the Russian Army is currently bogged down in the far southwest region of. There is zero chance of Russia invading Slovakia any time in the foreseeable future.
Putin is not the deep strategic planner and schemer that people are often crediting him as. He’s a pretty masterful troll who has managed to convince a large part of the Russian populace that he’ll bring the Greater Russia back into prominence on the global stage and he’s managed to goof with the American electorate, but he’s not laying the groundwork for a years long hidden plans within plans. If he were a teenager, he’d be edgelord who spits on your food when you are not looking.
Invading another country is not the only reason you would want a false flag operation.
There definitely seems to be an uptick in support for Ukraine in the West right now. The world thinking Ukraine had their hand in the assassination of the pro-Russian Slovalkian PM would definitely help Russia.
For this to be a false flag (and I’m not suggesting it definitely is) does not mean this is some complex years long conspiracy by Putin. For Putin assassinations and false flag operations is the equivalent of “deny everything, delay, and countersue” for Trump, it’s his go-to plan that’s worked for him in the past, why shouldn’t he keep on doing it? That’s why this it’s definitely a possibility when something like this happens.
I’m not saying your wrong; there’s a huge % chance you’re right. In a horse race, you’d have the favorite.
Still, as a chance to bump the ‘right’ popular support before an election is not… non-zero.
Fifty to One… maybe… maybe longer odds. Putin has ‘spat’ in elections on the past.
I don’t know anything about Slovakia and had never even heard of this Fico dude before this thread appeared. I will ask the question that seems most obvious after the question asked in the op:
If Putin/Russia is not behind this, is it possible Ukraine or forces loyal to Ukraine are?
Eehh? Are you looking at a map by way of a mirror?
Slovakia is squeezed between Poland and Hungary. All three of them are west of Ukraine. Were NATO to expand by adding countries east of Ukraine - that would mean Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan - Putin’s paranoia would probably lead him to not only threaten with nukes, but maybe brandishing them in a very public way, quite possibly close to the border of a NATO country.
The shooting in the central Slovak town of Handlova, which Slovak media said was carried out by a 71-year-old man,…
snip…
Slovak news media reported the shooter was a former security guard at a shopping mall, an author of three collections of poetry and a member of the Slovak Society of Writers. News outlet Aktuality.sk cited his son as saying his father was the legal holder of a gun licence.
If you thumb thru the photos it looks like just an old, angry dude. I would not read much more into it at this point.
Not that I think this is the most likely explanation, but just following down the rabbit hole… If Fico is a member of a pro-Russia party, then it’s likely that whoever’s chosen to replace him would also be pro-Russia. Possibly more so? Is he maybe on the sane edge of his party, with the most probable next in line being more extreme? And of course, being a (nominal) Putin ally has never saved anyone else from a date with a window: Being close to Putin just means you have more opportunities to offend him.
I almost wish it turns out that the U.S. was behind the assassination. Not because I think the CIA should be killing the Prime Minister of Slovakia or whatever, but because it least it would be something. These last few years, it feels like the Russians are the only ones in the game, spying, throwing people out of windows, undermining democracies, while western intelligence agencies have been doing… what, exactly? You can’t win by playing defense.
Well, there is the possibility their efforts have managed to be effective and just gone under the radar. It’s not like they have a squad of cheerleaders.
