Australia Federal Election - I'm jealous

Today, Prime Minister Turnbull called for elections to take place on July 2. Less than two months from beginning to end. Not only that:

It seems to me that the election has been called in fear of his unpopularity getting even worse.

Oh those poor people; what an unimaginable Hell it must be to put with an 8 week election campaign. :rolleyes:
More fun facts; this is Australia’s 1st double dissolution since 1987 and a new voting system is being used for the Senate for the 1st time. Also if the Coalition looses Australia will get it’s 6th Prime Minister in as many years.

You guys in the US are the oddballs, most countries have very short election cycles. You guys now effectively have almost two year campaign cycles on a four year term. That’s insane. Are there any other countries in the world at all that have such a long drawn out election cycle as the US?

Awesome. I’ve been saying for a while that something like this is needed, to get rid of the old system where you either have to rank 110 candidates in order or just hand over to one of the parties to pass around as they will. Being able to just rank the ones you actually want your vote to go to is much better.

You do realize that political primaries are a bit different than the election for the actual office. Additionally, politicians are probably never not campaigning.

I never minded and have always voted below the line. Generally only a couple dozen candidates though.

Lucky beggar. I’m in a yuppie inner city electorate and we’ve been close to or over 100 quite often, for the senate. I shudder to think what it would have been like in a double dissolution .

(I always did the full below the line vote too, 'cos I’m kind of curmudgeonly like that)

There’d be an argument that Australia has effectively been in election mode as the US primaries since 23 June 2010 when Gillard displaced Kevin Rudd as PM.

The dynamics are that PM Turnbull won the prime ministership via a party room spill.
There is a substantial ginger group within his majority government who remain loyalists to the deposed ex PM Abbott. They are, by our standards anyway, fiscally and socially conservative. So Malcolm needed to steer a ideological path to appease right wing reptiles like Cory Bernardi up to the point where he could win an election in his own right and claim a mandate. A difficult task and one he hasn’t been particularly successful at, hence the fall in the polls.

If he does win I’d expect him to tack left to the centre. For example it would be quite feasible that an elected Turnbull government would park it’s current proposal of a plebescite on gay marriage and go for a parliamentary vote which he’d likely win. Throw in a science based response to climate change and he’d be able to take a long term lease on the Lodge. He’d be back owning the centre, the LIBs centre right and most of LABs centre left.

But he’s got to win and while that would seem to be the most likely outcome smart money is hedging it’s bets.

For example there’s the unfathomable implications of the implosion of the Palmer United Party in a single term which puts a whole box of seats into play in Queensland.

I think it’s more accurate to say that most countries have normal election cycles, while in the US the election cycle is more or less perpetual, with the next cycle starting to get under way not long after election day. This makes US federal and especially presidential election campaigns not just the longest but by far the most costly of any elections in any country in the world. The 2012 presidential and congressional election was estimated to have cost nearly $7 billion, and the current election cycle is expected to break all records in political spending. Presumably it’s done this way to keep the corrupting influence of money out of politics. :rolleyes:

You do realize that when politicians are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on campaigning, when media are saturated with political ads telling voters who they should vote for when they trudge out to primaries and caucuses, and when political campaign stories dominate the news, that’s usually a pretty good sign that there’s an election going on, right?

After two years of Malcolm Turnbull capitulating to the conservatives of his party on almost every principle he claimed to hold, these predictions sound more than a little naive. It’s easy to forget that most people at the time (me included) would have agreed with them.

Now, thanks to his spinelesness, there’s a very good chance we’re going to have this man as our Prime Minister. I thought Tony Abbott was Australia’s Trump moment but it looks like we’re going to be subjected to a second serving. He may have just enough time to create a Children of Men-style dystopia before the next election.

For non-followers of Australian politics, our current Prime Minister yesterday called a spill to flush out the the right-wing threat to his leadership. He won the vote 48-35 against the Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton, a man whose immigration policies are literally killing genuine refugees, believes there is an urgent need to bring white South African farmers to Australia as refugees and who claims that Melburnians are too afraid of African gangs to go out at night.

Surely there is some plan in place for Scott Morrison to step in “for the good of the party”, not even Pete Dutton could believe he electable, could he?"

So you’re going to put in the boot over a prediction based on 2 years of hindsight?:confused:

The critical qualifier overlooked is:

Malcolm won a single seat majority, he didn’t win the mandate required.

This poor imitation of the Tea Party are at their high water mark.
There’s a window of less than 6 months for them to replace Malcolm with whichever of their reptilian brethren offers the best sound bites, win seats at next years election in Queensland, lose more in Victoria & New South Wales and continue their malevolence from the back benches.

If they don’t move then either Mal wins his mandate without them or loses The Lodge.
I think it’s a bit harsh for us of the great unwashed to blame the pollies for inaction when we have spent a decade giving them hung parliaments, minority governments and single seat majorities with a hostile/discordant Upper House.
We are collectively reaming the wind we sowed.

I don’t really follow politics in Oz but my nephew in Melbourne got mugged by an african gang a few months ago. I’d never heard of that kind of thing before in Menlbourne. Times change.

No, at the time I would have agreed with you. I remember heaving a sigh of relief when Abbott was toppled. It’s an illustration of how far Turnbull has deviated that what many of us expected from him when he took office now sounds fanciful.

What - muggings, or muggings by African people? Muggings have definitely been a thing for quite a while. OTOH, before about '95 or so there were not enough actual African people in the city of Melbourne to form a gang of any sort - all the muggings had to be carried out by Anglo Saxons, Greeks, Italians, Vietnamese … the ethnic groups that actually had significant populations.

So, yeah, the ethnic diversity of your average criminal is definitely increasing. However, since crime has been generally static or trending down most of this century (and violent crimes are down about 10% in the last year it seems odd that people would be more scared of going out of their houses. Unless of course they’d been listening to too many right wing politicians trying to scare people into voting for them.
Regarding Tony Abbot’s handpupp…I mean, Mr Dutton, I honestly don’t know what the Libs think they’re doing. He’s wildly unpopular, has zero charisma, and has about a quarter of Turnber’s ratings as preferred PM. The conservative element doesn’t seem to have cottoned to the fact that Abbott was unpopular because the electorate generally doesn’t actually like conservative Abbottish policies. So they’ve spent the whole of the past year arm-twisting Malcolm into letting them have conservative Abbottish policies and guess what - the electorate still doesn’t like them! But the right wing knows what to do about that - lets pile on more conservatism and have a Real Conservative as frontman. That’s sure to fix things! :smack:

I don’t think there’s any doubt that there’s some criminal activity in Melbourne’s Sudanese community but people like Dutton are using every incident to fuel their confirmation bias. Sudanese-born offenders were 1.1% of total offenders in Victoria for April 2017 to March 2018.

I think that a lot of people’s confirmation bias is created because of the over-representation of Sudanese youth in these crime figures. They represent less than 0.1% of the population but are number 5 on the list of alleged offenders by country of birth.

What statistics can and can’t tell us about Melbourne’s African crime issue.

Personally I think Dutton has to become PM to continue the long standing trend of each successive PM being worse than the one that they replace. It will also ensure that Shorten will keep his job and further boost the trend after the next election.

It’s the Ultra-Right again trying to scare the masses with a scapegoat. Australia is good at that. :dubious:

Being the wonderful country of migrants that we are, since the first days of Brit colonization, we’ve been suspicious of the next folks to arrive after us (that’s the collective us).

First it was the Afghan cameliers and later the Chinese who came out in the mid 1800’s for the gold rush. The folks before HATED them because they were going to rape our wimmins and turn us into opium addicts or something. Oh, gangs.

Then after WW1 we had the first wave of European migration, then WW2 with lots of Southern and Eastern European migration…they too bore the brunt of our White Australia Policy and copped heaps of racist scorn…until we realized that pizza, souvlaki and latkes taste really good. Oh, gangs.

After the end of the American War in Vietnam, we had boat-people arriving on our shores on leaky boats. They too threatened our wholesome Way of Life, bringing in heroin, pho, bok choy, and GANGS.

You get my drift? Every wave of immigration into this country has been met with the same xenophobic condemnation as the one before it. Yet every wave has ADDED to the wonderful multicultural mix that now makes up Australia.

And yeah, often the children of the first-gen arrivals have problems. The Chinese, the Italians, the Greeks, the Turks, the Vietnamese DID pose security threats, and they did form ‘gangs’. But by the time those kids had their own kids, things had settled down to a very boring status-quo crime-wise. Guess who are doing better socio-economically now? It isn’t the white Anglo kids that’s for sure: It’s the migrant families who overcame the racist bullshit they had to contend with on arrival to now shine on all measures.

So now it’s the Sudanese kids…as before, it fits the political narrative of the day. And they’re BLACK which makes them easier to identify on CCTV.

Seriously, it would make far more sense for our govt to provide services to help this (extreme) minority of kids to settle into the Aus way of life than to continue to scapegoat them as the new scourge to arrive on our shores. But our conservative government needs them for their own scurrilous ends.

I love Australia, really I do. But I wish the stupid old bitch would grow up.

I can see how “we’re bringing in immigrants who will commit disproportionate amounts of crime for a generation and then climb over you” would be a difficult political sell, however.

That’s exactly the sort of thinking that leads to refugee jail though, isn’t it? We can’t tell which out of these six year old fleeing a war zone are going to turn into Deng Adut and which are going to end up in a street gang, so fuck em all. NIMBY.

The male youth out of an entire Sudanese/Somali population of about 9000 can’t possibly be more than a few hundred - five percent of that and we’re taking a few dozen problem individuals. That’s not a serious social problem, that’s “oh look! I found a nice juicy scapegoat to whale on!”