ArchiveGuy I understand all your criticisms and that’s what I am afraid of but one thing I just can’t agree with you on. It doesn’t matter whether you are completely and dumbfoundingly accurate in your critique, like you’ve nailed every problem with the film. It’s irrelevant to the gross. It will be in the top 20 highest all time grossers if not top 10. All three films will be.
Or just making three renders.
Adjusted or unadjusted for inflation? 
But even if it made the Top 20 all-time (unadjusted), that still wouldn’t necessarily be enough to make back its costs domestically.
But in all likelihood, you’re probably right (we do live in world where Shrek 2, Pirates 3 and Transformers 2 all have Top 10 status), but even with the inflated ticket prices, it’ll still be dependant on repeat business, good word of mouth, and high anticipation–none of which I see as sure-things yet.
Beyond fanboy rumors, is there any confirmation that this is a trilogy?
I was about to say I seriously doubt that, but I just checked the list of all time domestic box office and saw that the “Transformers” sequel is number 9!? OK, if that piece of crap can be #9 than you may end up being right about that.
But that’s not within the business model. Movies aren’t intended to make their money on domestic ticket sales. Theatrical releases are about trying to break even and mostly are considered promotional materials for the rest of the products from the DVD to merchandise. Making a profit on a domestic theatrical release just isn’t expected on any film release, though if someone will do it, it’s James Cameron. It happens, but it’s just not the inherent business model to expect that.
Big blockbuster Sci Fi effects epics are like printing money. That’s just the way it is. If you can afford to produce it, you’ll make a profit. Fanboys don’t drive ANY industry. My wife’s boss took an exec at Marvel to task because he said that he didn’t care about the geeks at San Diego ComicCon, but it’s true, if you depend on fanboys for your market share you’re a niche product and not mainstream. That just isn’t how the market works for entertainment properties. It’s a Sci Fi action epic, everyone will go see it, it’ll gross billions over the course of the three films in the theater alone. It probably will make a profit in the theaters even making everything else gravy. It’s the next Star Wars/Lord of the Rings/Matrix/Pirates of the Carribean. It’ll make Jim Cameron even more of an ill billionaire than he already is.
Bullshit. The fanboys run the sci-fi business. Look no futher than District 9 to show that good word-of-mouth can make or break even the smallest movies.
As of today, I’m more convinced Avatar is the next Waterworld than the next Titanic.
That doesn’t conflict with what I said in any way. Fanboys are great for getting the word out, but they don’t account for the majority of ticket sales.
You’re wrong, and I’d put money on it.
That’s funny, becasue back in the summer of 1997, everyone was saying how *Titanic *was about to be the next Waterworld.
FTW
How is that “For the Win”? Titanic made so much money because of the girls in junior and senior high school who saw it 10+ times.
Do you really think girls 11 to 17 will be seeing Avatar more than 10 times? Or even once?
Once yes most likely, not more than 10 times. I do not expect Avatar to outsell Titanic.
While this is ordinarily accurate, the truth is that the higher the overall budget, the more reliant a film is on all revenue streams to make back its costs. And industry perception is also important–a $350M film that only makes back $250M at the domestic b.o. is still going to be considered a significant disappointment, especially in the shadow of his last hit. Also, one can’t necessarily expect the DVD sales for this title to be typical of a major film, because one of its biggest selling points (3-D) will not be emulated in the home commercial release.
And this is exactly Avatar’s biggest obstacle. Fanboys are the only obvious demographic that it appeals to currently. Titanic had the spectacle junkies, the disaster pornophiles, the period fans, and romantic buffs at its disposal. Pirates had the weight of Disney’s marketing muscle plus plenty of hunky eye candy (Depp, Bloom). LOTR had a half-century of literary legacy and truly amazing critical cred.
Avatar has none of these things. It appears heavy on the action and animation, but in an awkward hybrid that is criticized as often as it is praised.
Final Fantasy. The Island. A.I. Sunshine. Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow.
I think that’s FTW because it was an example of people underestimating Cameron.
I haven’t seen a 3D movie yet and there are probably a fair number of people who haven’t either. They’re hyping this movie up as the 3D movie to see and I can see this drawing a lot of the uninitiated.
:dubious: Up alone has made almost $300M this year. You add in Ice Age 2 and Monsters vs. Aliens and that’s over $650M. While those are all pure animation, I’m skeptical to how many people are out there who avoided any one of these 3 films but are likely to see a movie that–from all external appearances–looks almost as cartoony.
Well obviously that is true, but I think it will top $ 300m.
Disney marketing muscle? Because Lightstorm doesn’t have similar marketing muscle? Umm…what? This movie will do at least as well as Transformers or Spider Man. There is no reason to expect it won’t. This idea that it’s all about the fanboys is a fantasy y’all have concocted in your heads and bears no resemblance to reality. People will go see it because it is a crazy sci fi epic and people like crazy sci fi epics.
None of those except AI was on the level of this film. The Island was a throwaway film and was made as such. AI had what this film has one of the most famous directors in the world, unfortunately AI was paced slow and was kind of boring. I do not expect that from Avatar. Avatar has Space Marines. Like the Island Sky Captain and the world of Tomorrow isn’t in the same class, it didn’t get the blitz of press that you will see Avatar get for the next four months. This will be one of the most widely hyped films of all time.
The most popular 3D films, such as the ones you mentioned, are family-fun movies and aimed at kids and their parents. I can easily imagine lots of people out there who avoided them but will be interested in Avatar. Avatar has a wider target audience, including people not interested in kids movies, but want to see what the 3D hype is. The size of this group will not be insignificant.
If you actually expect me to believe that Lightstorm comes close to the branding power, product integration experience, and massmarket saturation access that Disney has, you’re going to have to do better than that.
Of course there is. Spider-man was already a household name. Transformers had a nostalgic appeal. Both known quantities already going in. Plus, they both had S-E-X. Don’t underestimate the power that a wet Kirsten Dunst or a short-shorted Megan Fox had in drawing in the all-essential males.
Now, as for Avatar: Brand familiarity? Zilch. Sex appeal? Nada. Any association with a name that’s a proven box-office draw? Nope. That’s 3 reasons alone (plus the other ones I’ve already itemized).
Throwaway? A Michael Bay film budgeted at over $100M? Hardly
Now you’re moving the goalposts. You simply said
And I listed 5 titles where that is categorically untrue. Will Avatar make a ton of green (more than any I listed)? Probably. But that hardly makes it a b.o. slam dunk (limitless hype notwithstanding).
You’re right I meant Fox who is the distributor. As far as product integration, I know for a fact that Lightstorm’s is superior to Disney’s. Disney’s integration between departments is terrible.
Umm…you do realize that the director of Avatar is famous for making sci fi blockbusters right? He’s one of those rare people who is a brand by himself. I’m sure we’ll all do just fine making do with Zoe Saldana, really.
Jim Cameron, and Space Marines.
Zoe Saldana.
Again James Cameron, the highest grossing director in history who makes multimillion dollar blockbusters again and again.
There was never any intention for The Island to be any more than just a money maker. You know this because Michael Bay directed it.
Hardly, the goalposts are firmly situated in that Avatar will make more than $ 300m at the box office. Those are the goalposts.
shrugs The movie hasn’t come out and you already have an attachment to it failing. I am sure you’ll be one of those who says that it was a failure because it wasn’t in the top 3 highest grossing films of all time.
In all fairness though, Fox makes a concerted effort to shoot itself in the foot any chance it gets, so it’s possible that they can fuck up Avatar.
The Abyss was James Cameron’s Waterworld and it still made $90 million on a $43 million budget.
I don’t know how anyone can make a determination of the film based on a 2 minute teaser trailer. However based on the 15 minute sneak preview there are still mixed reviews. Ultimately the question is going to be is it an absorbing story or a 3 hour motion sickness inducing trip to the Uncanny Valley.
James Cameron, Space Marines, and Sigourney Weaver, no less.