Yikes! Welcome new victims, including my alter-ego, JSexton.
Turning ugly in Doperville…
Heh, Looks like I really pinged dnooman’s scumdometer early on and often. Like I said, we excel at suspecting citizens.
Shame too, I did clear you after all. I still say that was a perfect response.
Having set the bar for how I play it straight I’m kinda worried whether or not I could pull of scum in the next game. Anybody else feel that way?
Any questions?
Well, that was a bad night. I think I may have been protecting mafia the last two nights…
Sure is looking bad for the town >_<
The rates I saw were for 25% scum with a seer type role. With no seer type they said take the square root of the pop. We were in real trouble when our detective died but we did work our way back with one really good night.
But the town still has numbers and with the VG down the drain should slow. We’ll see if they panic and start turning on each other.
Assuming they started with 9 mobsters and a SK what’s the scum percentage now? I closed my list and didn’t save it.
By the way, I was thinking about running the next game but now I’m not going to. It’s a very interesting and fun game but man, what a draining experience. Anyway if anyone wants to take any piece and modify it however you want you’re free to it.
The Cult of Osiris
I’d have the towns of East and West Adamstown. Seperated by a river and a state line. Across the river is a bridge with a bar on it where the townsfolk meet to discuss their various lives. Each town would have the same population. One day the town wakes up to find the narrator sacrificed and so the towns know that there are members of the Cult among them. The game starts of in the day.
The Cultists are in each town of roughly the same amount, perhaps the same amount. In each town one cult member has been chosen by their god to be a Prophet but the other cult members do not know exactly who.
In addition to the prophets there are a few Heretics. The heretics are part of the cult and participate freely but consider the other followers to have fallen from the true word. Naturally this schism is over some tiny difference in the manner of the sacrifice.
Each town has a different legal system and so conducts its own lynching during the day. Each town has a Nosy Neighbor who can investigate someone at night. Each town has a Joker who just happens to be able to protect people by being in the right place at the right time to disrupt whatever plans there were to kill that person. There is one Paranormalist between the two towns who has been following the national movements of the cult and is determined to end the chaos on his own. There is also one Jr. Paranormalist.
At one point in the game the population gets low enough that the population of the two towns gathers at the bridge and combines into one group having only one lynch. Safety in numbers but they lose the second lynch.
Team Cult - Win if they get a majority and are able to perform the final ritual. Lose if the Heretics win.
Cultist - Get together at night to decide on who to sacrifice during the night by vote. They get only one kill spread between the two towns.
Prophet - Exists among the cultists but they are not told who he is. If he is investigated by the nosy neighbor he appears as a townsperson.
Team Heretic - Win if when the cult gets to perform the final sacrifice and they equal 50% or more of the Cultists
Heretic - Participates normally with the cult during the night. Knows who the other heretics are. Each night sends a secret message to the narrator with the name of the person they wish to sacrifice along with a number between 1 and 1,000,000. Before the game the narrator will randomly select a number between 1 and 1,000,000 and the player closest to that number gets their kill. They get only one kill per night spread between the two towns. If a heretic is investigated by the nosy neighbor they appear as a townsperson.
Team Town - Even though they are divided into two parts they play as one. THey win when all cult members are killed.
Townsperson - Knows only their own role. Each day participates in the lynch in their own town. Once the town is merged participates in the sole lynch.
Nosy Neighbor - As a creature of the night he is not bound by the law and can investigate any player in either town. Is 100% right on all town members and normal cult members. Sees prophets and heretics as townspeople.
Joker - Can protect one person at night in either town. Can also protect himself if he so desires.
Paranormalist - Desperately wants to free the town from the cult and is driven to kill each night. As a night person is not bound by laws and can kill any player. Does not know who the Jr. Paranormalist is.
Jr. Paranormalist - Knows who the Paranormalist is and watching in admiration. If the Paranormalist dies the Jr Paranormalist becomes the Paranormalist.
Night deaths. The town will be able to tell the Cult kills from the Paranormalist kill by the use or lack of a ritual but not be able to tell the cult kills apart. The cult, well versed in their holy words know the difference.
Well if anyone wants to use any part go right ahead.
Wow! That night sucked for the town! The Mafia had better work on finding the SK soon tho…
JSexton, might I ask who you were protecting the past two nights? Or are we not revealing information like that in this thread…
–FCOD
Wow, that game sounds great. Someone should take that idea and run with it. Not me, but someone. I would like to mod a game again sometime, but I am going to need a break after this one
I think that we are. 
Now that JSexton is rubbed out, and it’s confirmed that we were indeed the Doc, I’ll answer something that was asked in the game about my own ‘heals’.
I did heal MadTheSwine on night two… mostly on a hunch, because we didn’t have much info yet. Everybody had commented on how three prominent players from the first night had been targeted on night one - MTS seemed friendly, and he had definitely been a prominent werewolf and an interesting player last time, so I thought it was worth a try covering him. Playing doctor can get tough.
Also, while I’m at it with the confessions…
The fact that I was Doctor did contribute to my decision to sub out. Certainly some people wouldn’t have given up a role like that no matter how much trouble they were in, but I felt it was probably better to give the post up to someone who might be able to bring a little credibility… was very worried that I’d have to role claim, and then end up dying anyway. Which is what happened to J I guess, but maybe he did some good first.
And no, I was NOT fishing for real cops so that I would know who to protect with the ‘everybody pretend to be a cop’ boondoggle. I was just REALLY excited on that first day, and actually thought that I needed to do something to get people talking and interacting. :smack: :smack: :smack: I had indeed expressed some reservations about the scheme on the last discussion thread, but didn’t think that they completely overwhelmed any merit in the proposal, especially since nobody else AGREED with my sentiments.
The fact that some people were using the seeming contradiction between criticizing the scheme at first, and then proposing it, as a ‘smoking gun’ that PROVED I was only suggesting it to lead the town to its doom, was possibly the most frustrating thing about the whole situation to me. (sigh)
A bit off-topic here, but I’d kind of like to have a party game thread that isn’t based on paranoia, gruesome imaginary deaths, and secret roles. 
Been wondering about trying to get a game of Haggle started, though I’ve only played it once IRL and that wasn’t a great success.
Also wondering, in adapting that sort of game to a message board, how to handle the information stuff. Probably adapt some werewolf rules, say that all deals have to be negotiated on-thread, players are on the honor code not to contact each other privately and share information, but they can agree to ‘team up’ publicly, show each other their rule slips, transfer assets freely, and so on. The one piece of information that would not ever show up on-thread, is the content of rule slips, unless any player deliberately chooses to make one of their slips public (which is usually a bad strategic move, because it takes proprietary information and makes it common and essentially of no value to any particular player.) If player A agrees to show rule slip 17 to player B as part of a trade, I as the moderator would send player B the text of the rule.
Does that make sense? Is anybody interested in a game like that? Any questions about what the heck I’m talking about??
Well, since I’m dead and can’t share my math in the game thread, I’ll share them here. Otherwise, I wasted all the time I spent deriving it.
Let R be the ACTUAL role of the person being investigated.
Let I be the role that showed up from the beat cop investigation.
Let r be the number of detectable roles (in this case, 9 for town, mafia, SK, VIG, DOC, GA, miller, detective, and beat cop).
Let x be the number of players (known or suspected) left from that particular role (1 for SK, or 4-5 for mafia)
Let n be the total number of players in the game (may be reduced if you are sure of their role, like the masons).
I derived my fomulae using Bayes’s law: P(R|I) = P(I|R) * P® / P(I)
Thus:
P(I|R) = 1/2 + 1/(2 * r)
P© = x / n
P(I) = P(I|R) * P® + P(I|~R) * P(~R) = (r + 1) / (2r) + (p - x) / (2nr)
Therefore:
P(R|I) = x(r + 1) / (xr + n)
given that r = 9
P(R|I) = 10x / (9x + n) in general
OR for the SK P(SK|I(SK)) = 10 / (9 + n)
Thus, the probability that Fern Forest was SK last night was 10 / (9 + 18) = 37% [18 being the players, 24, minus the confirmed: me, Autolycus (because he was about to die), Pleonast, sturmhauke, pimaspinner, Menoccio)]
Thus, assuming that there are 4 mafia, 1 GF, 1 beat cop (other than pima), 1 SK, 1 GA, and 4 confirmed, with 21 left, that leaves 9 townies. So I’d say (based on my guess that there’s only 9 unconfirmed townies left) that the probability that Lakai is town is 10 (9) / (9 * 9 + (21 - 4)) or 91.8%.
Also is, increased likelihood given that investigation or L(R|I)
L(R|I) = n(r + 1) /(xr + n)
L(R|I) = 10n / (9x + n)
Thus, Lakai is 1.73x more likely to be a citizen than any of the other random unconfirmed townies, but Fern Forest was 6.75x (IIRC) more likely to be the SK last night than any other unconfirmed townie.
I go back and forth wanting to and not wanting to. I think the thing that most scares me is that I have a long period between when I go to bed and when I get home from work that I would be absent. Maybe if I co-mod? Or if people don’t mind waiting till things happen. Either way input would be great.
Although I think the next round should be small again. Maybe alternating back and forth.
Interesting Blaster Master. I think a lot of people are suspicious of math though. I think some people saw it as an attempt to appear to be helpful without actually being helpful. Like brewha and my odds post.
I’m interesting in seeing how the 5 names I’ve posted turn out. So far they’ve turned out 1 scum, 1 town. Kat, hocow and MadTheSwine left.
Heh, now that we’ve got some big posters dead and in this thread maybe things will pick up here.
Pima both times. After doing some re-reading last night, I think that the mafia decided to throw you under a bus by having a scum pima claim cop. Of course, I’ve misread nearly everything in this game, so who knows.
On another note, it seems like this could be a regular feature here. There’s certainly plenty of interest. On every forum I frequent where Mafia was introduced, it quickly grew, and often spawned it’s own subforum.
I think some order is useful. Having some systems in place to regulate the games helps keep everything fun. For example, it’s good to have an order of game moderators lined up, so there’s no free-for-all in starting games. It’s also a good idea to have someone experienced review a game for balance. (37 people is too much, for example)
I’d b happy to organize sucha thing, but I’d like to get input from folks on that. We’d also need to run such things by the mods.
That’s one of the issues with the game I designed. To be fair you’d have to have at least 3 heretics. Square that to the 9 scum. Multiply by 4 to get 36 players minimum.
Also there’s a fatal flaw. Were I a heretic in the game I designed I would immediately begin killed cult members till we outnumbered them on the theory that they’d have to die eventually and it’s easier to kill them myself rather then try and guide the town to killing them while keeping my head off both blocks. Not sure how to fix it. Maybe block all cult on cult violence until the two towns merged. Or allow cultists to kill heretics but not the other way around.
What I was really enamored with was the two town idea. I liked forcing the scum to decide which town in which to kill at night.
Yeesh! Town is not lookin good right now.
Sorry Fern Forrest, I was convinced that you were mafia or SK. I know now that it was due to my misreading your intentions. Good thing I didn’t have money on that.
JSexton turned out town, but I don’t think that really surprised too many people.
I’m actually really glad I got bumped off early, I just don’t have the tenacity necessary to devote to such an involved and intense format. Plus, I’d probably lose my job if I paid as much attention to the game as I wanted.
I can’t help but think that a lot of the mafia strategy was to just let the town tear itself apart. Seems to have been working.
Which is part of the problem with a game this large. It’s too easy to lurk, and too easy to lose track of what’s happening.
Quite alright, if I had a nickel for every townsperson in this game who did that I’d have nearly a buck and a half.
Things sure are quiet in the game today.
I really was rooting for you, Blaster Master, but I’ve got to admit to being relieved that you’re dead now, so I can finally stop being so cagey about being able to confirm your role. Plus. y’know, it’s nice to have my confessed killer over here with me. 
The much slower paced game is making it a lot easier to catch up on what’s going on and I’ve been able to go back and read things I’d missed before. It doesn’t look so hot for the townies right now, though. I’d be willing to bet that there’s one good strategizing, frequent poster who’s Mafia at this point and the majority of the remaining scum are lurking for the most part.
As JSexton said, a game this large makes it far too easy to lurk. Those with power roles don’t want to lurk, because they want to help their team, and so they’ve been getting outed or offed all over the place. Meanwhile, slipping under the radar is exactly what the Mafia would want. It should definitely be a smaller game next time, though I don’t think size alone can be blamed for some of the craziness over there.
I should have guessed you had investigated me the second night, because you seemed convinced that you’d looked scummy to the vigilante. I’m sorry I targetted you. You just seemed SO scummy to me, but looking back I can’t exactly put my finger on why. I think the whole game would have ended up much better if I’d gone ahead and targetted Queuing, at least the day two fiasco would have been avoided.
I had been trying to play mind games to keep the SK and mafia from targetting me; but I think I got a little over zealous with my “I should be targetting the SK” campaign and she got paranoid. I still think it was a bad move for the SK to off me, because I don’t think the SK was in any real danger of being lynched or targetted by me. Now with a slower game and fewer kills per night, each one will be more informed which will hopefully turn things against the SK.
That’s what I’m afraid of; of the four dead scum, only one was drawing any real attention to himself. The town is so paranoid, that it goes after bad strategy and ideas despite that the higher posters have mostly shown up to be townies. Even worse if someone like Rysto or** pimaspinner** is actually scum (I AM leaning towards the first being scum, but he’ll never get lynched.
I agree as well, it hurt the town because me, and several others, were enjoying it too much and drawing too much attention to ourselves. Meanwhile, the mafia were enjoying sitting back and watching the FOSs on everyone else except for themselves.
I think so far, the town has made three fatal mistakes, one of which was mine:
-
chrisk’s open detective system: It did ultimately lead to Pleonast’s trust/distrust list which looked suspicious, but I think ultimately turned up to be helpful, and because Pleonast is a mason, it didn’t hurt us that much. The way the ODS hurt us was by putting **chrisk/JSexton ** on the town’s list as scum, and the scum’s list as a power role. Obviously, this is bad because it ultimately caused the doctor to be outed and killed.
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Me targetting CaerieD: As I said above, obviously a bad bit of logic on my part, and had I targetted Queuing, you would have had at least one more chance to investigate. Plus, I doubt Gadarene would have been lynched on day two either, because the pairing between him and Queuing never would have happened.
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Having the VIG target be Fern Forest last night: I wish I’d taken the time to do the math sooner, or I would have proposed killing Fern Forest ONLY in the event that Autolycus had turned up as the GF. I should have gone with my gut that both were town, especially since the largest part of supporting that Autolycus was potentially the GF was that it looked like **Fern Forest ** might have targetted him. I probably could have made things slightly better by saying screw the town and targetted someone. Oh well…
I think the town needs to look really hard at the people who were lining up to lynch Fern Forest on day three over Suburban Plankton. I’m also going to say that the lurkers are most likely scum, and they’re going to have a hard time hiding. I’m still convinced that hocow is either SK or scum. I’m also worried the entire basis for Rysto’s level of trust is the early help on day one, and he’s actually scum.
Actually I guess the town isn’t so far behind. If the town started off with 9 mobsters and a SK then it was 26.3% scum. There have been 17 deaths, 4 of which were scum for a 23.5% score rate. Take out the mob hits on townsfolk and they are doing better then random killings are, but not by much.
What strikes me the oddest about the day I died was that no one really questioned pima’s assumption that I was the SK. A few wondered is the SK would play so openly but other then that nothing. Whereas to my eyes only the foolest of SK would play the role anywhere near the way I did. I suppose it’s possible to see me as a mobster but absolutely not the SK.
I can think of 2 possible reasons. It’s possible are afraid of being bold and questioning what appears to be a town concensus. Standing up does seem to get people killed and so they were afraid to. Or they were looking for a leader, for part of the game that was you Blaster Master. And they just assumed that pima knew what he was going and accepted that.
Even Auto as the GF. Sure it’s possible but what an unnecessary gamble to play. We could very well have lynched him on that day.
Perhaps the town had had no other idea and was willing to let things roll on the chance that it was right. And so was the mafia.