When Barack Obama entered this campaign back in 2007, most people firmly believed that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee in 2008. Some people didn’t like that because they didn’t like her, others of us didn’t like it because, while we like her just fine, we knew there were lots of people who didn’t like her, but it was nonetheless looking like she had the nomination sewn up.
I’m guessing that Obama entered the campaign to become known at a national level, and perhaps to get a shot at the VP slot if the Democrats won, thereby positioning himself for a serious run for the White House in 2012 or 2016 depending on whether the Republicans or the Democrats won this year.
Then something very strange happened. Obama started winning caucuses and primaries, and where he wasn’t winning, he was coming in a pretty close second. Suddenly he finds himself with donations and volunteers out the wazoo, and very fortunately, he has the organizational skills to deal with them. And voila! A serious candidacy is born.
But I really don’t think he expected this when he started out. Do you think I’m nuts?
I believe Obama entered the race with a serious plan to win the nomination and it worked! The volunteers and donations started to explode back around Sept. 2007
You may well be right. I wasn’t following it closely at all at that time. All I knew was that I was afraid that if it was HRC, she’d mobilize the Republican base against her and lose, even though I liked her just fine as a candidate for myself.
Well, I will say that if so, I’m somewhat surprised. Yes, it’s a ripe time for Obama in some ways, what with Bush’s low ratings and the ability Obama had to ride the Change wave, but with only two years in a national level post, he really was leaving himself open to the lack of experience thing.
ETA: It’s fortunate for him that he has the gravitas to overcome what might be far more doubt about a lesser man.
Successful, driven people generally do not enter competitions that they don’t believe they can win. He did his research and knew he had a pretty good shot.
The person most surprised was Hillary. By the time she realized what was happening it was too late. If she took Obama seriously before Iowa she would have won. I think Obama knew that his strategy rested on Hillary not noticing what he was doing.
Anyone would have been surprised to win over the Clintons, but Obama was the only other candidate that had a plan that could possibly work.
Seventeen million people voting for Obama was no accident. I think the mainstream media was just to stupid grasp anything this complex. Hillary = big name = winner, is all they were capable of.
Heck, isn’t it a common trope that Bill Clinton started running for president the day he shook JFK’s hand? I’ve no doubt Obama’s had his eyes on the prize for several years now. At most, he may be mildly surprised that events came together to give him a credible shot in 2008 instead of having to wait for 2012 or 2016.
Actually, there are (according to Wiki) 39,151,870 African Americans in the USA. Presumably at least 17,000,000 were able to vote, but of course may voted for Clinton, and many Caucasions voted for Obama.
Your population statistic is, of course, pretty much correct, as is your point (which I badly mishandled) about who voted for whom.
I think Obama saw a window of opportunity and made a sincere run for the White House. If it was all about positioning, I think his leadership, promise, intelligence and statesmanlike presence would still have gotten him there eventually.
I know I was, but I’m not complaining. It was one of life’s inevitabilities. Guys, the kid has Presidential Timber stamped on his forehead. We in Illinois knew it at least from 2004. It might’ve taken the rest of the country, and Canada ;), longer to figure it out but not as long as I expected. I thought he wouldn’t run until 2012 and I think he didn’t either until 2007.
You are not nuts: lots of long-shot politicians run for President.
But I believe that you are wrong. Obama has generate buzz for quite a while: check out this 2004 New Yorker article. After reading that, I predicted to a friend of mine that he would be President (though I anticipated a ~2016 run). And no, I’ve made no similar calls for other candidates. I add emphasis:
Obama is the finest orator of the past two or three generations. He combines the smarts of a policy wonk with the temperament of a deal-cutter. During the smear season it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that Barack Obama is truly an extraordinary man.
Incidentally, it was Daschle who persuaded Obama to run in 2008, noting that windows of opportunity don’t always last forever.
I am reminded of the film Guess Who’s Coming To Dinner. White parents are confronted with their daughter’s engagement to an African-American. All of his background is impeccable. The parents have to face the fact that the only possible objection that they can have is because of his race.
I hear people talk about “a lack of experience.” I think about JFK’s lack of experience and Clinton’s too. If the choice is between “a few years experience in Congress” and “firmly entrenched in the politics of Washington,” I’ll take the first.
I can understand why conservatives or Republicans don’t support Obama, but I am skeptical about those Democratis who can’t support this particular candidate. Where is he blemished?
I don’t think he’s blemished in the least. I just think he might have started this run more with the intention of introducing himself at a national level with an eye to actual election in 2012 or 2016, and found it to go better than expected.
The only down side about this is, if he loses this year, that’s probably it. Even though if he does lose it’s most likely the lack of experience that will take him down, I don’t see him running again. He’ll become the youngest “elder stateman” on record.
I entered his campaign seriously with money and resources in Oct. 07’. From what I gather he set his side of the chess board very early on to out play Clinton. I’d say he planned on this outcome from the beginning. I don’t think he entered to get recognized I think he saw a hole and shot right through it.
Think of it like when Road Runner is racing down the highway, and all you see is moving feel and a dust cloud…then coyote turns around and looks just in time to see Road Runner flashing past him…which causes him to spin round, and round like a dradle. Clinton was the coyote, and Obama is still the road runner.
