So I feel real bad for poor A-Rod muffing two chances to keep the Yankess from losing to the World Champion Red Sox on Wednesday. Did I mention World Champion, and did I mention how A-Rod blew it?
But this really isn’t a gloating thread. It’s about designating the Boston runs as earned or unearned.
Situation: Sox have the bases loaded, one out. An easy grounder hit to third. Quick handling and good throws gives a second-to-first double play, ending the inning. Or, a slight bobble and a throw home gives a force out at home for the second out of the inning, and no runs.
As it happened, two bobbles resulted in a run scoring and everyone safe on an error. Next batter hits a slow bouncer towards first which is slow enough to give the pitcher only one play – going to first for the out, while a second run scores.
Q: why is there exactly one earned run?
A strong play on the batter before ends the inning. A mediocrely competent play gets a force out at home and no run. With even the mediocre play and no error, the inning ends with the bouncer to first and neither run scores.
So why is there an earned run? Is it because, under error scoring rules, you have to assume that A-Rod would have idiotically ignored going home and gone to first for one out (the second out of the imaginary error-less inning) allowing one run to score?
I understand that the save category includes no accounting for errors, and so by extension the blown save category makes no provision for them, but why is Rivera being tagged with a 10 ERA for A-Rod’s error?
You can’t assume the second out in the double play that looks like it would have happened, no matter how obvious. The scorer can only assume that Slappy would have made the first out, not that the subsequent relay would have been in time. In earned-run terms, the inning is still alive, and runs earned from that point, other than by the runner left safe on second, count against the pitcher.
FTR, that was Rivera’s 6th blown save in his last 9 appearances against Boston. The Sox have moved into his head, evicted the former tenants, taken up residence, and are busily redecorating. And ain’t it sweet!
The Yankee fans booing him when Torre finally put him out of his misery was *not * sweet.
The only time you can assume a double play would have been turned is if the fielder making what would have been the second out drops the throw.
That doesn’t happen very often.
But you need to piece together the inning without the error. (Alternate reality in italics)
So here is how it would have gone without A-Rod’s error
Mueller walks
Bellhorn singes, Mueller to second
Damon singles, Mueller to third, Bellhorn to second.
Nixon strikes out Ramirez grounds out to third, Mueller scores, Bellhorn to third, Damon to second. Ortitz grounds out.
Inning over, 1 run scores. That’s the earned run Rivera was charged with.
That’s correct. The earned run is the first run, not the second one. From reading some of the replies, I got the impression that some people are counting the second run as the earned run. The second run was unearned since it scored on what would’ve been the third out if not for the previous bobble on Ramirez’s ground out. Also, no runs were scored on a “hit”. Both runs scored on ground outs.
BobT and nivlac – Right, I understand you don’t assume a double play. But you don’t need a d-p to get out of the inning with no runs, you just need A-Rod to throw home for one out.
Imaginary inning
Mueller walks
Bellhorn singes, Mueller to second
Damon singles, Mueller to third, Bellhorn to second.
Nixon strikes out
*Ramirez grounds to third, reaches on fielder’s choice. Mueller forced out at home, Bellhorn to third, Damon to second.
Ortitz grounds out.
*
Ahem, as I was saying, before I was so rudely interrupted,
As long as A-Rod forces the lead runner, no runs score. (Bellhorn goes home, but no run as the batter was forced out).
So in assigning earned runs after an error, do you always assume the play would have been to first, or do you assume the latest force out? Obviously, you can’t assume any non-force outs (so in a similar play with runners on first and third, you clearly assume the run scores), but getting the force at home seems the clearly obvious play here.
You use baseball judgment and assume the play which the fielder would most likely have made had he fielded the ball cleanly. In this situation, with a one-run lead and one out, the Yankees almost certainly would have played for the 5-4-3 double play. Most likely the infield was at double-play depth. On a high chopper, or after a slight bobble, the third baseman still might go home if he had time for a 5-2 force-out but not for a double-play. But you assume clean fielding. And, as other have noted, you can’t assume a double play. So it’s kind of paradoxical–you assume he goes for the 5-4-3 double-play, but you can’t assume he succeeds.
Under different circumstances, you would make different assumptions. Say the score was tied with the bases loaded and nobody out in the bottom of the ninth. Then you’d clearly assume that the fielder goes home–and if an error is charged, there is no RBI and no earned run.
Generally, but not always. Again, in a game-ending situation like the above, with the infield playing in, you would assume a play at the plate.