Error in bottom of the ninth: earned run?

Factual Questions
1

OK, this isn’t completely an excuse to mention a Yankees loss. Not completely.

But it was inspired by the game yesterday when the Devil Rays scored in the 9th on an error. In that game, a subsequent single meant the runner would have scored anyway, so it was an earned run, even though he scored on an error. And it was in fact the top of the ninth, so they played out all three outs.

But imagine instead, if you will, a game where the score is tied in the bottom of the ninth. One out, and a runner on third. The pitcher induces an easy grounder to the shortstop, who looks the runner back to third, then throws over the first baseman’s head, whereupon the runner on third then takes off and scores, ending the game.

Is this an earned run? The general rule is you reconstruct the inning without the error, and any runs scored after three outs are unearned. In this case, the reconstructed inning ends with two outs and a runner on third. Who’s to say what would have happened in the last out?

Does the pitcher get the benefit of the doubt , so it’s unearned? Would it be different if instead of one out there were no outs (So the reconstructed inning has one out and a man on third)?

2

That would be an unearned run. The runner scored as a result of an error. The fact that the game ended on the play has to be factored into it.

Here is an example of an almost identical situation from a Dodgers-Cardinal game I remember seeing back in 1991.

The play-by-play is from http://www.retrosheet.org
It was on September 3, 1991

DODGERS 9TH: TERRY REPLACED OQUENDO (PITCHING); PENA STAYED IN
GAME (PLAYING 2B); PERRY STAYED IN GAME (PLAYING 1B); GEDMAN
STAYED IN GAME (PLAYING C ); HANSEN BATTED FOR SHARPERSON;
Hansen singled to center; GOODWIN RAN FOR HANSEN; Griffin out on
a sacrifice bunt (pitcher to second) [Goodwin to second]; GWYNN
BATTED FOR HOWELL; Gwynn reached on an error by Zeile [Goodwin
scored (unearned), Gwynn to first]; 1 R, 1 H, 1 E, 1 LOB.
Cardinals 4, Dodgers 5.

3

Here is another confusing example and some people still aren’t sure if the official scorers got it right.
DIAMONDBACKS 9TH: Grace singled to center; DELLUCCI RAN FOR
GRACE; Miller reached on an error by Rivera [Dellucci to
second]; BELL BATTED FOR JOHNSON; Bell forced Dellucci (pitcher
to third) [Miller to second]; CUMMINGS RAN FOR MILLER; Womack
doubled to right [Cummings scored (unearned), Bell to third];
Counsell was hit by a pitch; Gonzalez singled to center [Bell
scored, Womack to third, Counsell to second]; Arizona wins
Series 4 games to 3; 2 R, 3 H, 1 E, 3 LOB. Yankees 2,
Diamondbacks 3.

4

I think it’s an unearned run. I hate to cite Wikipedia, but the official rules didn’t have relevant example like the Wikipedia entry:

In your example, you don’t know how the 3rd out would have happened, but the official scorer is supposed to give the benefit of the doubt to the pitcher. The inning ends before we find out if the runner would have had the chance to score, so I think it has to be ruled an unearned run.

5

What are they not sure about? Cummings’ run is unearned because Miller (the original batter he replaced) reached on error. All other runs are earned because there is only one out (the error would have made two, so the inning would have still continued anyway)

6

I suppose you could argue that Cummings’ run should be earned, because without the error, the inning would have gone as follows:

Miller grounded out [Dellucci to
second]; Bell grounded out ; Womack
doubled to right [Delluci scored];
Counsell was hit by a pitch; Gonzalez singled to center [Womack to third, Counsell to second]… inning continues.

Of course, this reconstruction means Bell’s actual run would be unearned, so it’s kind of academic, but I can at least understand the basis for this argument.

7

Miller’s “ground out” was an attempted sacrifice bunt on which Rivera threw poorly to second base. If you assume that Dellucci would have been safe at second even without the error, you have to credit Miller with a sacrifice, and the scorer didn’t.

Without the error, you end up with two outs and the bases loaded, and then Gonzalez dumps that little flare over second base. I say two runs would have scored on it, so both runs should have been earned.

8

The game I went to Wednesday night ended with a similar situation.

Bottom of the 9th: Giants lead the Dodgers 8-6
Benitez comes into pitch.
Choi bats for Repko and strikes out.
Ledee bats for Werth and walks. Grabowski runs for Ledee.
Robles homers to right to tie the game.
Kent walks.
Accardo replaces Benitez.
Saenz hits grounder to Accardo who throws the ball away trying for a force. Kent to third, Saenz at first.
Cruz is intentionally walked to load the bases.
Edwards singles to right-center to end the game.

The final run was unearned.