Baseball Offseason Thread

This Mets fan is ging to try and overcome the ESPN-y bias of this thread. I want to hear from the fans of teams that were on the bubble last year – Blue Jays, Tigers, White Sox, Angels, A’s, Cards, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres – is the team on the way up or in for a down year? Who’s coming back, who’s leaving?

I found the list of free agents at mlb.com but it’s too long to deal with. Is there a list of notable free agents somewhere?

As has been said before, it’s very difficult to use stats to measure defensive ability. I have to see how the defensive stats are calculated, but there is no way to really gauge who is better by stats. The past 2 years, Teixeira’s range probably detracts from Cano’s. But the right side of a 2nd baseman’s range is more “important” since it requires a stronger and more precise throwing arm, especially if the 2nd baseman is still moving because of his momentum. There is not a 2nd baseman in recent MLB history that has the combination of arm strength and throwing precision that Cano has. Pedroia simply can’t make the plays up the middle that Cano can. Watch Cano’s top 20 plays up the middle, and you’ll see that Pedroia makes maybe a couple of them. Meanwhile Cano makes each and every one of Pedroia’s top plays, and with ease and smoothness while blowing bubbles and smiling. There’s just no way you can compare these players. And you can only know this if you watch enough baseball. You may say that I’m just a Yankee fan backing my guy. But I’ve said for years that Jeter is a below-average SS, even while he wins Gold Gloves.

If Pedroia’s range stats are better, it’s probably only due to the fact that Red Sox 1st basemen are like oak trees who themselves have no range. Cano simply doesn’t use his range to his left because Teix just swallows up anything in the area, like a black hole. But I’ve watched enough Yankees games and Red Sox games to notice a clear distinction in ability. While you can’t completely disregard fielding stats, you simply have to watch enough baseball. If anyone thinks that Pedroia is even close to Cano in fielding ability, they are either Red Sox fans, Yankee haters, or just haven’t watched enough baseball. It’s impossible to prove this, but if all 30 MLB GM’s had a choice between Cano and Pedroia today as their 2nd baseman, 29 of them would choose Cano. Pedroia, at his full potential, ends up as a very good, scrappy player. Sure, he has an MVP. But no one takes that one seriously. That was like Terry Pendleton’s MVP. But barring injury, Cano ends up in the Hall of Fame as one of the top 5 2nd basemen of all time.

And hitting ability? Puh-leeze! Pedroia can’t lift Cano’s jock strap as far as hitting is concerned.

Here is one list of the top 50 players available.

Yes, there actually is. It’s not 100% perfect, but you can absolutely gauge defensive ability using statistics. If you don’t believe this, then why would you “have to see how the defensive stats are calculated”? After all, if stats can’t tell us who is better, what does it matter how they are calculated.

And this is precisely the problem. You can certainly tell something about a player’s defensive ability from watching a lot of baseball, but the fact is that you can’t remember every play, and that working off something like the “top 20 plays up the middle” is completely and utterly useless.

Career numbers:

Pedroia: .305/.369/.460 OPS+ 113
Cano: .309/.347/.489 OPS+ 117

Their averages are so close that it makes no difference, Pedroia walks a little more, and Cano has a bit more power. Cano is a bit better, but to suggest that Pedroia can’t hold his jockstrap is simply wrong. And, as others have noted, Cano had a career year in 2010. If it turns out that Cano’s 2010 indicates a permanent condition, and he puts up 2010-type numbers for another couple of seasons, i’ll concede your point, but right now they’re really not that far apart.

JC Bradbury of Sabernomics has calculated the value of some of the top free agents. You can see his list here.

He notes:

:rolleyes: If defensive stats are a bad way to measure skill, then citing “the evidence of your eyes” is even worse. That’s exactly the same kind of argument that leads to Derek Jeter winning five Gold Gloves - people see him make “spectacular” jump-and-throw plays and assume that that makes him a spectacular defender. That’s simply not true. Mostly, it means that he can’t get to balls that a better fielder would, and has to resort to flashy plays to make the out.

Look, I’ll be the first to admit that defensive metrics are in their infancy, but even as is, they are far and away superior to anecdotal cherrypicking. And by the way, thanks for resorting to childish “lol ur a nerd who duznt watch the games” level of discussion. I watch plenty of games, thank you very much, and my eyes tell me that Pedroia is a fantastically athletic fielder with extraordinary reflexes, excellent positioning, a good arm, and great footwork. Is he a weird-looking bald guy who ends up in the dirt more often than not? Sure. Does that mean he’s poor defensively? Hell no. And guess what? The numbers back me up, not you.

So, on Cano’s side, we have your entirely web gem-based argument. On Pedroia’s, we have my web gems and a whole shitload of defensive metrics, both traditional and sabermetric. I leave it to the reader to decide which means more.

As for Pedroia’s offensive skills, you do realize that Pedroia won both Rookie of the Year and MVP, right? I mean, if awards are such a good measure of player talent, that’s gotta mean something, right? Oh wait, they don’t? OK, how about this:

Dustin Pedroia
Avg: .305
OBP: .369
SLG: .460
OPS+: 113

Robinson Cano
Avg: .309
OBP: .347
SLG: .489
OPS+: 117

Well, look at that. They’re almost precisely equal in offensive value, and their relative skillsets are exactly what I described in my previous post: Pedroia’s got the edge in getting on base, and Cano has more power. Both are undeniably good hitters, and the gulf between them isn’t anywhere near what you want desperately to believe.

It’s hilarious how you instinctively assume that anyone who disagrees with you is doing so because they’re a Yankee hater, when your posts in this thread bespeak blind fanboyism to a far greater degree than anyone else’s.

One more thing. Teixeira’s range isn’t as good as you’re making it out to be, and Red Sox first basemen are far better than you think. Youkilis, for example, has far better range than Teixeira: 0.6 RnR vs -6.4. Youkilis also makes almost no errors: career fielding percentage 0.994; holds the 2nd-longest errorless streak in 1B history (first by # of games). So once again, by both “modern” and “traditional” metric, Youkilis is better defensively. Got any more highlight reel-based stories to “prove” otherwise?

Edited: Whoops, I see mhendo beat me to the Pedroia hitting stats.

Well, the Cards are bringing back virtually everyone (good and bad). The big question is whether they can lock down Pujols before he becomes a free agent after next season (gulp).

Either way, they’ll be looking to sign at least one SP (likely re-signing Westbrook, something I’m OK with - I’d prefer a second SP as well because Garcia is ripe for an injury and Chris Carpenter is both old and Chris Carpenter - a run at De la Rosa will likely prove too costly, but a flyer on Harden or one of the other old-but-injured types might be a good idea).

Beyond that they need to address the non-Pujols infield, upgrading at at least one spot, and preferably two. Where that can be done is tricky, since there is no money for a Beltre. Maybe Juan Uribe. Freese will likely get the first crack at 3B. I wouldn’t mind letting Descalso have a shot at the 2B job out of the gate. Someone (BP) mentioned Weeks possibly being available in a trade - I’d definitely make that call and see what they’re looking for.

They could try to improve at RF, but I don’t think the money is there, especially considering the Pujols issue. RF will likely remain a patchwork.

Oh, and if they trade Rasmus I will, quite possibly literally, cry.

Okay, so please explain how the range stats account for the ranges of the adjacent fielders. And for 2nd base especially, how do the stats account for range to the left versus range to right?

That’s just one small example. You can’t say that this is useless, because these are the plays that save opposing runs and win games. Having 1 or 2 more errors a year is really the useless stat, especially when you’re talking about single digit errors per season for the position itself.

In Pedroia’s full 3 seasons, he has not a had a year that was better than either of Cano’s last 2 seasons. While Pedroia has a higher OBP, it’s only because he is protected by Boston’s better hitters. Put him in Cano’s spot and see what happens. Cano is the best Yankee hitter and does the protecting. Opposing teams fear Cano. No one fears Pedroia. They fear the batter that follow him. Just take the Yankees and Sox out of the equation and put both players on the market today for the other 28 teams to bid on. Can anyone say with a straight face that Pedroia would get anywhere near the money that Cano would get? I’m sorry, but there’s just no way he would.

Yes, you are one sorry character. Just your premise that “protection” is meaningful has been soundly thrashed–no one of any repute puts that one forward anymore. To do is to self-identify as “mentally impaired.” You make several other assertions that are almost as weak, such as discounting poor range due to other fielders’ good range. (Mark Belanger and Brooks Robinson are a classic example of two fielders with excellent range playing side-by-side for years. How is that possible if what you’re saying has any merit whatsoever?) Ballplayers don’t make other ballplayers better or worse–they are what they are.

If you don’t even know what factors are taken into account when producing the stats, how can you so confidently assert that the stats can’t tell us anything about defensive ability?

Because the guys who produce this stuff are much smarter than me when it comes to these sorts of calculation, and also better at explaining how and why they use the measures they do, i’ll simply suggest that you spend some time on the Baseball Prospectus website and read up on their fielding articles. I particularly recommend the work of Colin Wyers, because Wyers himself concedes that defensive stats have some problems, and that we need to try and improve them. He doesn’t, however, think they’re useless, and he also goes into quite detailed explanations of all the factors that he tries to take into account when making calculations of defensive prowess.

Here’s what the Baseball Prospectus guys have to say about protection:

This is their conclusion at the end of a chapter devoted almost solely to the issue of lineup order and protection.

Where did I say this? But do defensive stats explain 90% of defensive quality, or 10%? No one knows.

I’m pretty sure I’ve read that one, but will check it out again. I guess the most obvious retort is that actual MLB practitioners (managers) haven’t bought what Wyers is selling.

Here’s what you said:

If there’s no way to gauge who is better by stats, then surely stats are useless, right? If statistics can’t answer the questions we ar seeking to answer, then surely stats have no value? And if they have no value, then they can’t tell us anything about defensive ability.

I don’t even know what this means.

He means that the managers don’t give a shit about this stuff, as they are the guys calling for .300 hitters to bunt and swapping relief pitchers every batter and voting Derek Jeter the Gold Glove. I would counter that managers are far from the only MLB practitioners out there, and you’d better believe that there are people in every front office who do pay attention to this stuff. (Unless the Mets have now hired all of them.)

Wait…

You’re saying Dustin Pedroia has a better OBP because he has better hitters coming up behind him. So, opposing pitchers pitch Pedroia in a way that puts him on base MORE, in order to pitch to better hitters?

That doesn’t make any sense at all.

Wow, i was so focused on the general issue of protection that i didn’t even notice that.

Funny how you missed the sentence right before that one.

Too bad all the people who know how to assess baseball player quality are busy wasting time posting on this message board. Maybe if the Red Sox and Orioles employed you, they’d have more success.

Why would that matter? You stated, quite clearly, that it’s not only hard to use stats to measure defensive ability, but that “there is no way to really gauge who is better by stats.” I disagree, and so do plenty of other people.

See, this is just silly and uncalled-for. You’re presenting yourself as no less of an expert than anyone else in this thread. You’re just as confident in your own analysis of Cano’s defensive ability and hitting prowess as i am. In fact, you present your own observations as definitive, while i have at least attempted to take into account multiple different measures of defensive capability.

I know it might feed your prejudices to believe that i’m simply a Yankee-hater, but my point in this thread has nothing to do with how i feel about the Yankees, or about Cano. I happen to like Cano a lot. He’s a great player, and i was happy to see him have a good year.

One problem here is that that we’re trying to differentiate players who are at the very top of their profession. You seem, in your silly whining, to be assuming that i’m somehow down on Cano, or that i’m arguing that he’s not very good. Nothing could be further from the truth. As RickJay noted earlier in the thread, the very fact that he’s a regular position player on a Major League ballclub means that he’s one of the 500 best in the whole world at his job. Any discussion we have about the relative merits of MLB players has to concede, at the very outset, that every single one of them is a fantastic baseball player.

Not only that, but they have, as a group, been getting better over time. As scientist Stephen Jay Gould pointed out in his essay “Why No One Hits .400 Any More,” the standard deviation of MLB hitting averages has declined over the past century, while the mean of those hitting averages has remained roughly the same, at about .260. Gould argues that the professionalization of the sport—changes in the game and in training regimes and selection procedures and the talent pool—means that the average quality of MLB players has increased over time. As he puts it, when we look at MLB players now, we see that “the distance between ordinary (kept at .260) and best has decreased. In short, no more .400 hitters. Ironically, the disappearance of .400 hitters is a sign of improvement, not decline.”

Furthermore, in this particular discussion, we’re talking about two pretty well-matched players, both of whom play at one of the most demanding defensive positions in the game, and who each play on strong, successful clubs. For this reason, the difference between the two is likely to be even smaller than normal. We’re not comparing the defensive abilities of Ozzie Smith and Pablo Sandoval here.

But just because all MLB players are really fucking good doesn’t mean that we can’t work out, at some level, which ones are better than others. The metrics might not always be perfect, and there’s often some wiggle room in the stats, especially when it comes to defense, but they can tell us something, and i certainly think that they are at least as reliable as your very subjective sense of what Robinson Cano looks like when he makes a nice play up the middle.

Anyway, while these general baseball threads have no rules about content, i don’t want to submerge the general discussion with this one issue, so i’m going stop now. We’ll just have to disagree about the relative strength of Cano’s fielding.

Nah, it’s just that Pedroia’s so bad that he can induce double plays as a baserunner.

On a more sombre note, Dave Niehaus, long-time Mariners play-by-play broadcaster, has passed away at the age of 75.

Why did you omit it? The 1st sentence combined with the word ‘really’ in the 2nd indicated that I actually think stats are not useless, but as far as fielding goes, they are just small part in assessing overall ability. As with any qualitative assessment of anything, there has to be an adequate mix of science and art. In my line of work, I invest billions of dollars in dozens of asset classes. I get investment managers coming into my office with stat after stat that ‘prove’ success…until the exact right question is asked. I force them to add a relevant factor and their proof falls apart. There are so many variables associated with fielding and these analyses may be missing some very key ones. The ‘science’ of fielding is in the stats. But as you add more and more variables or factors in these stat models, you may come up with vastly different outcomes. I agree that there is a circular nature to my argument. The way I see it, any stat that puts Pedroia higher on the fielding list than Cano has got to be wrong and missing something. Kind of like how the ratings agency models (the experts, if you will) told us that certain collateralized mortgage obligations were very safe and given AAA ratings. I didn’t buy it because it just didn’t make any sense. Same thing with Pedroia. There is nothing that I see that places him even close to Cano, regardless of what the stat du jour says. Because tomorrow, there will be another stat du jour (not really, but you know what I mean). Cano simply makes every play that Pedroia does, and many more. He has better range up the middle and a better arm, even if some stats say that Pedroia has better range.

I think that if any of you were to read my posts on the Yankees, I’ve regularly talked about how poor of a fielder Jeter is and even A-Rod, so I can never be accused of being a homer. I’m the Yankee fan that calls into ESPN radio regularly and basically destroys Yankee players and Girardi’s decisions all the time.

It was unfair for me to put this in my response to you. It was more because of Post 69, so my bad.

True.

You have, but I just don’t buy them. I really would have to sit down and review the analysis myself, and I just haven’t had the time. But I will.

Agreed.

I read this years ago and believe it. I’ve used this exact argument versus Warner Wolf when he had his radio show and would constantly talk about how great players were in the past in all sports. My point to him was always that players get better over time. Ty Cobb would never hit .400 today.

But the real lesson is that once you start referring to stats and variables, the answer that comes out depends on what goes in. At the end of the day, you still have to make that leap of faith that you haven’t missed anything. In the comparison between Cano and Pedroia, they definitely missed something.

Fair enough.