Baseball Thread May 2008

The Game Room
61

In 1859 minor league at bats Dewitt has a line of 279/333/444 (AVG/OBP/SLG) . He basically has been a league average player against minor league competition, mostly lower level minor league competition. In fact, he only has 282 in double A with a replacement player level line of 245/282/376 and just 2 at bats at triple A.

In 1694 minor league at bats Laroche’s line is 297/374/522 including destroying triple A to the tune of 310/398/570 with 32 home-runs in only 484 at bats. The numbers aren’t in the same ballpark, and 100 at bats doesn’t change that.

Giving up on a top prospect on 93 at bats is ludicrous. The preponderance of evidence says Laroche will be a very good major leaguer and Dewitt won’t. Scouts agree, look at any prospect list and you will see Laroche very high, and Dewitt no where to be seen. Sure there are other possible outcomes, but none of them are likely, and it would be a mistake to base any decisions upon them.

62

Gah, Cubs! Soriano comes back and, get this, he’s even worse than before. Has he faced a single count that didn’t start out 0-2??!?! He’s a disaster and they need to drop him down in the line up, now.

Last night was sad, 5 unearned runs to lose the game. I mean you win some and you lose some, but don’t just hand a win over on a silver platter. Zambrano pitches tonight, hopefully that will help us take this one.

63

Well, right now Laroche is broken and DeWitt is cranking. Got his first major league home run last night. Swap Laroche and Pierre for some sort of power hitter and be done with it.

64

What was Fontenot thinking? Down by two runs in the top of the ninth, you don’t try for home unless you have certainty of making it. Bases are loaded, you just sit there and wait and see if there is a hit. Gah.

65

Was that Fontenot or the third base coach? For whatever reason this game was on WCIU and was broadcast in Ultra Blurry Vision so it was hard to see what happened, but it looks like once he got the notion he was two steps shy of being on time with the break from third. He also got pretty hot about the out with the home plate ump too. Still a bad move on his part in a night where he had already made an even bigger mistake.

66

After the Cards took the Cubs series and managed to win last night in spite of “Ricochet” Duncan misplaying four balls in left field, I am starting to think about drinking the Kool Aide. Sitting at 21-12 at the top of the division, when I would have reversed those win/loss numbers before the year started is a pleasent surprize. Pitching continues to look good (Izzy worries me, but he’s worried me for years) and Duncan aside, the defense has been solid.

67

But that’s exactly the kind of approach that leads to short-term failure and long-term immolation. Through 78 at bats you’ve already gotten about the best you’re ever going to get out of Blake DeWitt, and he’s still slugging under .450 (good for a shortstop, not so much for a corner infielder). In another month, he’ll settle in comfortably at .250/.325/.415.

That “well, we need something RIGHT NOW,” so keep the guy on the short-term hot streak and trade the prospect who isn’t producing at this exact moment is the attitude that leads a GM to trade Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. Or Joe Nathan, Nelson Liriano, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski.

Look at the team your Dodgers are chasing. The Diamondbacks have been successful in the last two or three years exactly because they’ve resisted trading Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young for short-term mediocre fixes - even though all three of those players have struggled. But now, all three are maturing together - Upton is going to be a real star - and so instead of patching together a quick-fix lineup every year, they have a core of developing superstars that will keep them competitive every year for a decade (or for as long as they can afford to keep the core together, of course).

If you trade Andy LaRoche, a guy who slugged .550 against Triple A competition at age 22, with Juan Pierre for some middle-of-the-road major leaguer with a bit of power:

  1. You’re still not going to beat the Diamondbacks, because now you’re relying on Blake DeWitt to sustain career-best performance over an entire season; and

  2. In 2010, when Andy LaRoche hits 35 home runs for the Oakland A’s and you’re still chasing the Diamondbacks, you’re going to hit yourself repeatedly in the head.

Honestly, I don’t get the Dodgers. If the Dodgers played it smart, in two or three years their lineup could include some combination of James Loney, Andy LaRoche, Chin-Lung Hu, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Russell Martin. And by 2010 you’ve got Ivan DeJesus, Jr, who’s a major-league quality defensive player now, and Tony Abreu ready to join in the fun, too. That’s a core that would be both awesome in its own right, and relatively inexpensive, freeing you to fill the remaining two or three lineup spots with whoever the top free agent is at the time.

Instead, they’re wasting time with Juan Pierre and Garciaparra and Blake DeWitt and seriously considering trading away Andy LaRoche. It’s weird.

68

Even though AJ’s average has dropped like a rock in the last three days, I still wouldn’t trade him. He’s the only one really hitting (ok, so is Quentin) and good catchers are extremely valuable, especially for my team where at least the pitching is good. I didn’t have a lot of expectations for my WSox, but, to lose like this…to…to…Canadians? Ugh! I’ve always said that if there were ever a World Series between Toronto and Montreal (this will hold true to Washington as well :wink: ), I would stop watching baseball. :slight_smile: No offense RickyJay!

Big series against the Twinkies at home, hopefully they can pull their shit together.

69

Fair enough. As i said, i don’t follow the Dodgers, and i certainly don’t spend any time focused on their minor league players. If your stats and your career descriptions are correct, it does indeed look like LaRoche is the better player.

Which is, i think exactly the point i was making—that the numbers i provided couldn’t really tell us anything. My post was a question about why you thought LaRoche was better, and now you’ve answered it.

As for giving up on LaRoche, i never even suggested it. I see that he was officially sent to the minors a couple of days ago, with Joe Torre apparently wanting him to get a bit more playing time. If that’s really Torre’s thinking, i don’t see too much of a problem with it. DeWitt is hitting well right now, and if he keeps hitting well for another couple of weeks, it will do LaRoche no harm to play a few more games in the minors. An extra couple of weeks at Triple-A isn’t going to derail a promising career, especially not if LaRoche is as highly thought of among baseball scouts as you say.

Of course, the real test will be what Torre and the Dodgers do with these guys in the long run.

70

If it was “Nelson” Liriano, it wouldn’t of been such a bad deal.

71

Exactly. What I’m concerned about (well if I was a Dodger fan I’d be concerned about) is thinking Dewitt is the future at third based on 100 at bats, or trading away Laroche on the sample size. I don’t have any problem with the Dodgers easing Laroche back in by letting play a few weeks in the minors. Still, if he isn’t the every day 3rd baseman by June, the Dodgers aren’t putting their best team on the field. Given their competition, I don’t think they have a lot of room for error. Dodgers have enough talent to compete with Arizona, but they need to make sure their best players play every day.

72

As long as we keep Ethier off the field, we will never be playing “our best players every day.”

You are probably right about Laroche, but it is too soon to tell, and I trust Torre more than I trust you or me. It also looks like Joe is more than willing to play Martin at third if need be, which really opens up the possibilities.

For that matter, we have Kershaw warming up in the wings to take his place in the rotation once Loaiza collapses for good. I’ve given up on Schmidt ever returning or being worth a damn.

73

He is quoted today as saying that he thought the ball got further away from the catcher, so I presume he made the decision on his own. That’s not usually a situation where a base coach has a say, anyway; too bang-bang.

74

Do the fans (and talk-radio hosts) there whine about the Bronson Arroyo - Wily Mo Pena trade as much as they do out here? :smiley:

75

Fuckin Tigers are driving me nuts. I think they are taking Leland on the same drive.

76

The Cards just survived a bullpen meltdown to pick up another win. Cool. But, my god, Ankiel has an awesome arm. He got two outfield assists tonight, each time gunning down runners at third with throws of over 200 feet. Unbelievable. Plus he cranked a home run. Pujols was a mere 1-for-5, but he has now reached base in every game this season. Kool Aid, comin’ up!

77

How come Ankiel can throw strikes from 200 feet when he couldn’t from 60 feet, 6 inches?
Yes, I know there’s no real answer, but still …

78

That’s a great line – started my day with a laugh. I have no idea either, and I would have rather he developed into the pitcher we thought he was going to be, but watching him in the outfield is still a thing of beauty.

79

Well Joba Chamberlain seems to have his main problems against the Indians. Last year it was the attack of the midges and this year he makes a 96 mph inside and high pitch to David Delucci who gets around on it and hits a 3 run homer.

I saw the pitch about 5 times. It looked like a good pitch. Only thing to do is tip the hat to Delucci and concede that Joba is human.

Saddest thing is Andy Pettitte lost a win.

Jim

80

The only bitching going on about Arroyo now is a: he sucks and b: he fancies himself a rock-n-roll singer…he even has a JTM (local meat company) commercial on TV with Chris Welsh where he’s singing and strumming a guitar. It’s p-thetic.

The Reds offense is in some kind of a funk. They are getting quality pitching from their starters (except Arroyo), but they simply CAN NOT SCORE! It’s driving me nuts! Last night, lost 3-0, despite a good outing by Aaron Harang.

We are awful.