As I said, as long as it isn’t the Sox, I won’t be as sad.
Remember, the BP “odds” are not odds – they are the results of their simulation. The simulation is based on many, many assumptions, anyone of which will change the results (ridiculous example: assume the Blue Jays don’t give up another run all season).
The Mets bullpen has stabilized over the past few weeks. Ayala is an adequate closer (and closers are overrated – since the position and save statistic was created, the difference in wins versus previous setups was only about 1%). Heilman is the weakest link (he has a bad knee), but Stokes seems to be stepping up (though he had a bad game yesterday). Manuel is reinventing the bullpen (by necessity): lots of situational guys. I would guess he’ll go with an extra pitcher rather than some of the bench reserves.
The Mets can throw three first-class starters at any team – Santana, Perez (who’s best in big games), and Pelfrey. The one major concern is the number of innings Pelfrey has been pitching; it was clear least night that he may be getting tired of his workload.
The offense is a good one, with Reyes, Beltran, Wright, and Delgado all hot and additional output from Church (who’s getting finding his stroke after his injury), Murphy, and Tatis. That’s what will carry them in September and beyond.
There is a different dynamic this year – the team isn’t giving up once it falls behind, a problem last year and part of this.
Fox is praying they don’t get their nightmare matchup of Brewers vs Rays! I don’t think Fox really wants to see the Diamondbacks or the Twins there either.
You are going make me argue against the Mets? Sigh.
They are based on only one assumption. That being the future team performance will be similar to past team performance. They have an alternative odd formula that puts more weight on recent success. If you run a similation enough times, you can up with odds that are almost perfectly accurate given your simulation, so saying it isn’t odds is technically true, but not terribly important.
I agree closers are overrated, but they have more value in post season as the percent of innings they throw rises. Ayala is a terrible closer. He had an ERA close to 6 on the Nationals, and really hasn’t been good since like 2005. Pitching ten decent innings doesn’t change that. I would rather have any number of other Mets pitch, some of whom aren’t currently in the majors. I actually have more confidence in Heilman than anyone else.
Santana is a star (though i wish he would throw more innings) but Pelfrey and Perez are far from first-class. Pelfrey has been very good, but I still think he is a mid rotation guy at this point rather than an ace. Perez is a guy you never know what you are going to get from.
I generally agree, but relying on people to remain hot is pretty dangerous. I think Tatis has already somewhat returned to pumpkin (Went to the makeup game on Sunday and he was terrible defensively) They do have an offensive core that can match anyone though.
The team’s “dynamic” was fine at this point last year too. They had a lot of hot players even. I don’t really see them being any more prepared for the stretch run, other than having Santana now is a plus. I don’t think they will blow their lead because it is very unlikely to blow that big a lead, and they have a very talented team. I thought the same thing last year. The fact that did happen last year, shouldn’t affect the odds of it happening this year.
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Of course, accoridng to BP, Pete Rose is managing the Reds.
I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but IIRC, their predictions have been wrong to the point of extreme statistical unlikelihood, taken as a whole. They had the Indians as 99% likely to make the playoffs a few years ago, had the Padres getting in last year, and so on. I’m not sure I completely buy into their methods. They’ve had a surprising number of sure things fail and sure-nots make it.
What often happens at playoff time is that hot hitters cool down/tighten up under the pressure of big games, and good pitchers rise to the occasion. Whatever the explanation, runs seem harder to come by.
A core of tested big-game pitchers is more valuable than a lineup that’s been piling up stats against fading teams, when it comes to crunch time.
Think back a couple years when the Mets last made the playoffs. Their bullpen was generally lights out from the seventh inning on. As things stand now, it’s cover your eyes and hope for the best. They’ve pitched a lot of innings and been shelled often.
Oliver Perez is an interesting starter. When the Good Perez shows up (as in a couple of games against the Yankees this year), he’s dominant. The Bad Perez will give up five runs and be gone after four innings. Which will it be?
Good Lord, people. I leave town for one tiny weekend in the middle of a pennant race, and the thread completely languishes. I’m disappointed in all of you.
14 games left, and the Dodgers hold a 4.5 game lead in the division. No guarantees, of course, but I think I’m finally willing to put down the money to renew my mini-season ticket package for next year so I get first shot at playoff tickets this year.
And bless you, Dodger organization, for putting Andruw Jones on the shelf for the remainder of the season. If I never see him take another at-bat in a Dodger uniform, it’ll be too soon.
One of the highlights of the D-backs season was the Micah Owings pinch hit home run.
Now, Owings is traded to the Reds and comes back to beat us again with another pinch hit.
The Braves won a one-run road game! And against Johan Santana, no less!
I’m a pretty spiteful person, but I still haven’t decided whom I’d rather see lose the division more, the Mets or the Phillies. Atlanta still has six games left against the Phillies, so for them to win out would imply more Braves losses. Still, to watch the Mets have a heartbreaking final week of the season for the second year in a row is too delicious an opportunity to root against.
The schedule iniquities have finally played themselves out (more or less) in the AL East, and, going into this week’s games, the Rays hold a slender 1 game lead (2 in the loss column albeit). Yeah it’s now pretty much all about home field advantage in the playoffs, but that may be worth more this year with the huge home-road splits lots of teams have (my Red Sox tho have played above .500 on the road since late July).
The Yanks stay alive one more day as Jeter tied Lou Gehrig for most hits at the Stadium. He did it with a homer.
Jeter has been nearly impossible to get out lately and in a little over week has gone from .293 to .306. I think missing the playoffs will hit Jeter the hardest of all the Yanks. Deep down I think he believes baseball is meant to be played in October.
I guess for all of us Yankee/Giants fans, it helps that this happened in the year where the Giants won a most improbable Superbowl on a most improbable play and are off to a good start this season, but it still hurts to miss the postseason.
Go Yanks!
Cubs!
Ditto! 
In the year when Milt Pappas no longer is the last Cub to toss a no-no, anything is possible!!!
Maybe it is the year. Baseball did a big favor for the Cubs, finding that Milwaukee is a “neutral” site for the Astros and Cubs to play the make up games for the Ike cancelations in Houston. That ball park is what, 90 miles north of Wrigley and 1,300 from Houston? I’m sure the Houston fans showed up in droves for that one.
I’m sure Selig’s family didn’t benefit from using their home park for a neutral game filled with Chicago fans.:dubious:
Anyway, it doesn’t affect the Cubs as they’re as good as in the post season, but for Houston climbing into the wild card race, a pretty raw deal, going from a home game support environment to a hostile road game.
So after this weekend’s shuffle, it looks to me like there’s a realistic chance that we could have the Cubs, Dodgers and Phillies as division winners, with the Mets going in as the wild card. That puts the Dodgers on the road in Philadelphia to start the playoffs, and for some reason, that makes me far more nervous than any of the other scenarios.
Probably just bad memories from being swept in four-games there a couple of weeks ago. It all depends on what Dodger team shows up, I guess, if it happens that way.
The Brewers have just firedNed Yost.
I knew there was a reason I like Big Z so much!
Back to back no hitters? Ted Lilly has a no hitter right now.
Well, if you’re nervous about the series, you can tell the Dodgers to go on a losing streak this week so the D-backs can get to the playoffs.
With all due respect, my friend, the D-backs really, REALLY don’t deserve to go to the playoffs right now. Sure, it could turn out that the Dodgers don’t either, but you haven’t got much of a leg to stand on at the moment. 
Let’s talk again this weekend and see if both of our squads were able to beat the teams they should beat this week.