Baseball wins over/under contest

The first win lines are out and I figured we could make this into a contest. Pick 5 teams that you think will exceed their expected number and 5 that will fall short.
We can use avg distance in the right direction as a tie-breakers. The lines are

Arizona- 82
Atlanta- 86.5
Baltimore- 72.5
Boston- 94
Chicago C- 83
Chicago W- 82
Cincinnati- 78
Cleveland- 73
Colorado- 83
Detroit- 81
Florida- 81
Houston- 77
Kansas City- 71
LA Angels- 84
LA Dodgers- 84
Milwaukee- 80.5
Minnesota- 82
NY Mets- 81
NY Yankees- 94.5
Oakland- 78
Philadelphia- 92
Pittsburgh- 71
St. Louis- 88
San Diego- 71
San Francisco- 83
Seattle- 83
Tampa Bay- 89.5
Texas- 83
Toronto- 71
Washington- 72

Hmm… looking at the list, I think this is going to be easy to pick the Unders, not so much the Overs (I’m trying to handicap myself and not pick the Yanks or Phils for my Overs). Let’s go with…

San Diego
Seattle (which will appear on many “expert’s” list of “sleeper” teams)

San Francisco
Tampa Bay
NY Mets

In hindsight, I also tried to handicap myself in my Unders by not choosing Washington or KC, so I guess it evens out. :stuck_out_tongue:

Falling short:

Kansas City Royals: 71? Seriously? They’re not going to win more than the 65 they did last year. They’re definitely not going to crack 70.
NY Mets: 81 is below .500, but not far enough.
Atlanta: Growing pains. It seems the past several years the Braves have been going through growing pains. Lot’s of optimistic hope for Bobby’s last year, but this team just is missing a lot of essential components. The Rookie may be the Next Big Thing - but he can’t win all 86.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates: They’ll hit 70 wins with two weeks left, and trade away their entire team.
San Francisco: This is a much harder section to pick than the over-achievers. I’ll go with the worst offense of 2009 to go below .500.

NY Yankees: The extremities of these lists is always at risk. The Yankees will push 100.
Cincinnati Reds: A lot of people are high on the Reds this year. I’m not that high - but I’m certainly higher than 78.
Seattle Mariners: Defense and pitching wins games. Hopefully, they won’t have to win ALL 84 for this to come true.
Florida: The perennial underdog. 82 wins is easy for this squad.
Baltimore: They’ll stink, and they’ll get pounded by the AL East. But they can pick up enough games from the rest of the field to get to 73.

But which list would you put Washington? 72 is a pretty good guess - they added a lot of talent in the off-season, and seem committed to putting together a “Not the NL Royals” squad. 72 isn’t a good team, but I don’t see them being horrendous.

Huh? I know the pain can linger, but they only play 162.

Taking the Over
Ari 82
LAD 84
Min 82
Mlw 80.5
Balt 72.5

SF 83
KC 71
Hou 77
CHC 83
CHW 82

Maybe they’ll have a tiebreaker game for the NL East and lose it?

They’ve lost over 100 games the last two seasons, winning exactly 59 games in both 2008 and 2009. Getting better by 13 games is a big, big leap for any team, let alone a perennial bottom-feeder like Washington (imagine the Yankees or the Phillies getting 13 games better, and they’re the two best teams in the league! That’s a tall order).

They got better in the offseason by signing Pudge and moving Dunn to first, so their defense won’t be as bad, but they still have garbage up the middle (Guzman, Desmond, Kennedy, take your pick). They’re pitching will rely on Strasburg and Wang, and who knows when they’ll see either of those guys pitch to MLB hitters? June? July? Bad teams on a budget always figure out ways to keep their young talent away from the big club in order to gain more control of their arbitration years. They can win more than 59 games. I’ll believe that. Winning more than 70? Under all the way.

Simple mistake. For some reason, my 1:23am brain thought .500 was at 82.

LA Dodgers
San Francisco
Kansas City

With a month left it is time to look at how these are doing.

Seattle has already failed to hit their number, but the other 4 look good. Cincy and San Diego have clinched successes and Minnesota is 2 wins away. The only question is Florida who needs to go 11-14 to match the number and 12-13 to surpass it.

These picks look pretty clear too. Pitt has already matched the under while Balt should shortly. SF and Tampa only need 7 wins to be overs so those are probably lost causes. The Mets need to go 14-10 to hit 500, which is unlikely.

Looks like 7-3, not too shabby.