NFL predictions thread - Week 4

In My Humble Opinion
1

Well, I don’t see one yet, so I’m jumping in.
underline is favorite, 1st number is the line, second number is the over/under.

**Philadelphia at Buffalo ** 3 41
The pressure is building for Philly, and I think this is the week they burst. Buffalo comes in over confident and gets blown out. Philly by at least 10

**Atlanta at Carolina ** 6 36
Who’da thunk Atlanta could do anything without Vick. Atlanta continues to impress. Go with the over.

**Cincinnati at Cleveland ** 6 41
Cleveland D is the star of this game. Go with the under.

**Detroit at Denver ** 13 0
Denver is good, but not with that spread. Denver in a squeaker.

**Indianapolis at New Orleans ** 2 42 1/2
Best game of the week. Indy by 2.

**Jacksonville at Houston ** 3 38 1/2
Jax. No reason.

**Kansas City at Baltimore ** 3 44
Who’s the best rusher in the NFL? Holmes. KC in a grinder.

**San Francisco at Minnesota ** Off the board
Minnesota is overconfident and hurt. A bad combo. SF bursts their bubble from the air. Lopsided.

**Dallas at NY Jets ** 3 37
Dallas is coming off an emotional win followed by a bye, and the Jets have their backs against the wall. Jets win in a hard fought under.

**San Diego at Oakland ** 7 43
Upset of the week? Possibly, but I’ll still pick Oakland.

**Tennessee at Pittsburgh ** 3 44
Pittsburgh either rises to the occasion, or completely tanks. Since I like them, I’ll go with Rises to the occasion. If they do, it’s by at least 14.

**Arizona at St. Louis ** 10 1/2 44 1/2
Gordon has a breakout game on the ground against an Arizona D that was expecting an air attack. I’ll plug my nose and say StL in this stinker.

**New England at Washington ** 3 42 1/2
When teams get as many penalties as Washington, it’s indicitve of something else going on. This is the something else: They’re falling apart. They suck. And they hate each other. The meltdown continues and NE benefits.

Green Bay at Chicago 4 41 1/2
It is impossible to predict what will happen when these two meet. Chicago off a bye week and GB off an embarrasing loss. I’ll lean towards GB seeking some form of redemtion in front of a national audience.

2

I’m curious…what makes you think the Redskins hate each other? Every story I’ve read indicates that they get along great.

3

Again, I am tredipatious about picking, but I picked up an interesting tidbit from Dr Z’s power rankings this week in SI:

Intriguing.

4

Thanks Nurse Carmen I was hoping I wouldn’t have to start it every week myself.

5

See 2001 Vikings as the most recent example of this rule. Penalties usually mean that there is some underlying distraction going on, taking away focus. It could begin as a slight rift between vetrans and coaching (several of those penalties are being commited by said vetrans) or maybe coaching and assistants (The Vikings of 2001 are a prime example, but also see Chicago and Tampa Bay teams of old) or pressure from ownership on Coaches and Players (Dallas is the primest example here) Soon you’ll see players in shouting matches on the sidelines, then subtle potshots and unnamed sources popping up in the press, to full blown media interviews. Its happened alot. It’s funny because it’s predictable, soley due to the fact that the game is so full of egos and emotions. There is almost no avoiding it.

6

I agree that there are ego’s in this sport that are too big to fit into the same locker room, but I don’t think the excessive penalties by Washington last week indicate any underlying problems other than a lack of discipline.

I didn’t get to watch the game so I’m not exactly certain what the penalties all were, though I know there were 2 big defensive pass interference calls (at least one against Smoot who may have been trying to overcompensate for his injury). I also know a couple were delay of game penalties, and I’m sure there were a bunch of off sides/false starts.

That, to me, doesn’t mean there is a lack of team chemistry or a trouble maker like Randy Moss to contend with, so much as a lack of focus and discipline and that can come from a variety of sources. I suggest that it is largely due to: a new coach who isn’t as commanding a presence as a head coach should be, overconfidence by the team as a whole following a good start to the season, and a roster full of veteran players that are less hungry and more lackadaisical than they once were. Walking the knife’s edge like they have been, they’re bound to get cut.

7

NE + 3 over Wash.
KC -3 over Balt.
Tenn +3 over Pitt.
Caro. -6 over Atla.
Ariz. + 10.5 over StL.
Oak. -7 over SD
Chi. +4 over GB

8

College:

Ark pick over Bama
Stanford +13.5 over Washington

9

Philadelphia at Buffalo 3 41

I like Philly in this contest too. This could be their break out game. That and I’ve never liked Buffalo so there!

Atlanta at Carolina 6 36

Actually Atlanta stinks! Wait a minute that should read STINKS!!! No defense, none, should allow Tampa Bay to score thirty plus points. If that happens you need to look at your defensive schemes. Tampa Bay does not have that kind of offense. That being said I’ll take them over the Panthers.

Cincinnati at Cleveland 6 41

You pegged it. Cincy won’t cover.

Detroit at Denver 13 0

Nurse Carmen are you High? Can I have some? You did watch MFL didn’t you? Denver going to shread that secondary like some much cheese.

Indianapolis at New Orleans 2 42 1/2

I think this’ll be the second best game of the week. The best is below. The Saints didn’t look good Sunday, I don’t think they’ll fair much better this Sunday. I’ll take Indy too but with the Saints not covering.

Jacksonville at Houston 3 38 1/2

Jax. No reason. My thoughts exactly.

Kansas City at Baltimore 3 44

Who’s the best rusher in the NFL? Holmes. KC in a grinder. Agreed take the under.

San Francisco at Minnesota Off the board

This game has been dubbed locally the “Give me the Damn Ball Bowl”. For anybody not familiar with football that’s a reference to Moss and Owens, who ironically have nearly identical numbers going into this game. My thoughts are if Minnesota’s dumb enough to play Culpepper, Peterson will have the mission to flatten him. Game of the week. San Francisco with something to prove.

Dallas at NY Jets 3 37

Agreed.

San Diego at Oakland 7 43

It’s the Battle of the anemic offenses. The Raiders need to develop some speed at the receiver position, it’s time to start rotating in those young guys Callahan. The Raiders also seem to have forgotten the meaning of Pass Rush. This will be a slug fest or totally un-watch-able. Not much of a choice here, as they can’t ever seem to sell out a game, so I can’t watch it anyway. I took the Raiders only because my friends think I’m dogging them for sport.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh 3 44

I like Tennessee in this game in spite of the fact that McNair keeps burning me. Pretty soon I’ll be comparing him to Meltdown Plummer. He’d better win this one. Titans.

Arizona at St. Louis 10 1/2 44 1/2

Who’d thunk AZ would pull off that win against Green Bay? I said that because it’s the only thing I could think of to say about this contest. St. Louis but not with that spread and take the under.

New England at Washington 3 42 1/2

I see it differently, the Redskins are looking for an identity. Here it is: Inconsistent. I still like them in this coastal math-up. Over.

Green Bay at Chicago 4 41 1/2
It is impossible to predict what will happen when these two meet. No it’s not, this time it’s really easy: A lot of unhappy Bears fans. It’s Week One all over again. Dick Jauron needs to start working on that resume’, you too Greg Who? Over but only cause I think Chicago might score.

10

Here’s a nifty site for you Gridiron Dopers out there:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=nfl/odds/nfl-odds.htm

11

Quick picks:

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo will somehow rebound after their poor performance and leave the Eagles in real trouble at 0-3, but the Eagles will be competitive in this one.
Buffalo wins 24-17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
For his first start, if it happens, Leftwich has a good chance of looking good against the Texans inconsistent defense.
Jaguars win 23-13

Kansas City Chiefts at Baltimore Ravens
Chiefs have to slow down some time, and no way better than for Priest Holmes to be one upped against his former team. Keep Boller in playaction, with Lewis getting 25+ carries should be successful enough to keep the ball off the Chiefs hands.
Ravens win 26-20

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Doug Johnson is not the answer and the Panthers should be still high off of beating down the champs.
Panthers win 18-10

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos
Lions are still outclassed against the more complete teams. Denver has proven they are fast and complete, and Plummer is only bound get more comfortable playing with leads.
Broncos win 29-14

12

My first attempt at this ever. Watch me fail miserably.
**Philadelphia at Buffalo ** 3 41

Buffalo wins and covers. Unsure of the over/under.
**Atlanta at Carolina ** 6 36

Atlanta, over.

**Cincinnati at Cleveland ** 6 41

Cleveland, under. Unless our defense starts a great/terrible/great/terrible pattern, we’re gonna eat them up.
Green is going to run 100+ finally. Couch will probably make
a dramatic comeback with a high scoring game - at least high scoring compared to our season thus far.

**Detroit at Denver ** 13 0

Detroit covers. If the over/under is “0”, I’ll take the over. :slight_smile:

**Indianapolis at New Orleans ** 2 42 1/2

Indy wins and covers. Over.

**Jacksonville at Houston ** 3 38 1/2

Jacksonville wins and covers. No opinion on over/under.

**Kansas City at Baltimore ** 3 44

KC wins and covers. Over.

**San Francisco at Minnesota ** Off the board

What does off the board mean? Too close to give either team a spread?

This one is a tough one. I’m gonna go with Minnesota due to momentum.

**Dallas at NY Jets ** 3 37

Hmm, dunno. Jets, over.

**San Diego at Oakland ** 7 43

Who’s going to suck worse? I’ll go with… San Diego covers.

**Tennessee at Pittsburgh ** 3 44

Tough call. Tennessee covers (and probably wins), over. Mostly because I hate the steelers.

**Arizona at St. Louis ** 10 1/2 44 1/2

Hmmm. St. Louis wins, Arizona covers. Over.
**New England at Washington ** 3 42 1/2

Washington covers. Dunno about over/under.

Green Bay at Chicago 4 41 1/2

Green bay wins and covers, over.

13

Actually, I’m going to keep track of my record both against the spread and straight by win/loss. To clear up any ambiguity: Panthers over Arizona (Arizona covers)
Denver over Detroit (Detroit covers)
Oakland over San Diego (San Diego Covers)
Tennessee over Pittsburgh

14

Woops, I forgot about the Culpepper thing. Sign me up instead for San Francisco :stuck_out_tongue:

15

I suppose ya’all are getting a bit sick of me and my cutesy derivitives of teams and thier names. Well…I ain’t done yet!

Phil Birds
Geo Birds
Clowns (can’t help but laugh at either of them)
Nags! (Sorry Mooch)
Ain’ts
Jags
Dolts
Niners (this girl stays loyal no matter what!)
Jets (tho’ they’ve steadily disapointed so far this season)
chOakland
Those guys Denzel Washington says we’re supposed to remember…Who are they?
Rammed it up thier…errrr sorry. (Gawd I hate these guys! Loose already)
Patrioids
Packers

16

Why on earth would you take the over in a contest between a team with no offense but a monster D, and a team with a mediocre offense led by a backup QB who hasn’t excelled? I’m not saying it can’t happen, but it seems like a pretty poor bet to me (this said with 14 already on the board)

17

Pro:
NE + 3 over Wash. (push)
KC -3 over Balt. (W)
Tenn +3 over Pitt. (W)
Caro. -6 over Atla. (W)
Ariz. + 10.5 over StL. (L)
Oak. -7 over SD (L)
Chi. +4 over GB

College:
Ark pick over Bama (W)
Stanford +13.5 over Washington (W)

Figgin Bears need to save my bacon.

Results:
http://www.nfl.com/scores/2003/week4

18

Well, you got the lopsided part right, albeit the wrong side.

19

I was at the game, I am quite happy to be proven wrong. The Minnesota 2nd string of Frerrotte, O. Smith, and Burleson is better than some other teams first strings. They looked amazing. Minnesota may be entertaining some trade offers in the off season.

Myrr21 hit the nail on the head. My bad. **Stuffy
** gives me some redemption though. Denver by only 6. I’m still shocked that the Redskins won. You must admire my call on Gordon having a breakout game fot StL. 21 carries, 80 some odd yards. You are allowed to giggle at my Colts by 2 prediction.

20

What’s the awful smell? Must be the Bears on Monday Night Football.