NFL predictions thread - Week 5

In My Humble Opinion
1

I hope you don’t mind. I’m up late tonight with nothing better to do.

10/05/03 397 Titans(Tennessee) OFF -1 Over 40.5 <<<
13:00 ET 398 Patriots(NewEngland) OFF +1 Under 40.5

10/05/03 399 Bengals(Cincinnati) +300 +8 Over 40
13:00 ET 400 Bills(Buffalo) -400 -8 Under 40 <<<

10/05/03 401 Dolphins(Miami) OFF 0 Over 38 <<<
13:00 ET 402 Giants(NewYork) OFF 0 Under 38

10/05/03 403 Seahawks(Seattle) +125 +2.5 Over 46 <<<
13:00 ET 404 Packers(GreenBay) -145 -2.5 Under 46

10/05/03 405 Raiders(Oakland) -200 -4 Over 42 <<<
13:00 ET 406 Bears(Chicago) +165 +4 Under 42

10/05/03 407 Saints(NewOrleans) +230 +6.5 Over 37.5
13:00 ET 408 Panthers(Carolina) -300 -6.5 Under 37.5 <<<

10/05/03 409 Vikings(Minnesota) OFF -4 OFF <<<
13:00 ET 410 Falcons(Atlanta) OFF +4 OFF

10/05/03 411 Broncos(Denver) OFF +3.5 OFF
13:00 ET 412 Chiefs(KansasCity) OFF -3.5 OFF <<<

10/05/03 413 Cardinals(Arizona) +260 +7 (-105) Over 37
13:00 ET 414 Cowboys(Dallas) -340 -7 (-115) Under 37 <<<

10/05/03 415 Chargers(SanDiego) OFF +3 Over 42
16:05 ET 416 Jaguars(Jacksonville) OFF -3 Under 42 <<<

10/05/03 417 Redskins(Washington) +180 +5 Over 39
16:15 ET 418 Eagles(Philadelphia) -240 -5 Under 39 <<<

10/05/03 419 Lions(Detroit) +240 +7 Over 41
16:15 ET 420 49ers(SanFrancisco) -320 -7 Under 41 <<<

10/05/03 421 Browns(Cleveland) +230 +7 Over 42
20:30 ET 422 Steelers(Pittsburgh) -300 -7 Under 42 <<<

10/06/03 423 Colts(Indianapolis) OFF +4.5 Over 37
21:05 ET 424 Buccaneers(TampaBay) OFF -4.5 Under 37 <<<

College:

10/04/03 315 Minnesota OFF -10.5 OFF <<<
12:00 ET 316 Northwestern OFF +10.5 OFF

10/04/03 319 Tennessee OFF +1 OFF <<<
19:45 ET 320 Auburn OFF -1 OFF

10/04/03 321 AirForce OFF -14.5 OFF <<<
13:30 ET 322 Navy OFF +14.5 OFF

10/04/03 357 OregonSt OFF -1.5 OFF <<<
17:00 ET 358 California OFF +1.5 OFF

2

OFF means “no line”. The +300 / -400 you see here are “money lines”. If you want the Bengals, you have to bet $300 to win $100. If you want the Bills, you bet $100 to win $400.

I made my picks with <<<. I only play the point spreads, no over / under or money lines.

10/05/03 399 Bengals(Cincinnati) +300 +8 Over 40
13:00 ET 400 Bills(Buffalo) -400 -8 Under 40 <<<

3

Me again.Ohboy I get to be first! Puzzle these.

The Big Guys beat National pride
Gotta give this one to the Bison. Ohio Kitties only purr, never bite.
N.Y. Blue over the Phish
Water birds will suprise and rock the Meat House
ChOakland will not choke on those Teddies
Ain’ts no party in Charlotte tonight
This reminds me of a bruising, Black over Purple
No Nagging off those high Native guys
beating head on keyboard Deset birds lose (sorry I just can’t bring myself to say those guys will win)
Florida Kitties are not on the path of least resistance
The Brothers love it when thier Birds prevail
The GoldDiggers deserve the thrashing the Michigan Kitties can give them. (Enjoy it Mooch. Sorry Stuffy)
Someone has Stolen lake Erie’s pride
Swashbuckelers on Horses? Yup,all over 'em

4

The most interesting contest of the week will be the Horsies vs the Bucs. Tony Dungy’s basically in the shoes Rich Gannon wore in the super bowl. I’m sure, however, that Gannon is smart enough to change his team’s audible codes, unlike some loser coaches I could mention.
My nickel’s on the Horsies in this one. I think the Colts defense is better than the Bucs offense, but not by much. And the Colts offense is better than the Bucs defense, but not by much.

The Broncos/Chiefs matchup will also be fun to watch. I haven’t watched the Chiefs play yet this year so I can’t make an official prediction, but I do think that the Broncos seem to play hot and cold and can be beaten by a solid team. I’ll put a nickel on the Chiefs just for fun.

5

Whoops! Did I say Gannon? I meant Gruden, or was it Spurrier? Who cares…

6

Maybe Tuesday night is a bit too early for the odds. I see they have over / under now for all the games. Check your local listings for current odds.

Or:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=nfl/odds/nfl-odds.htm

7

Underlined team is the Underdog, first number is the spread, second number is the O/U.

**Cincinnati at Buffalo ** 8 40
Who the hell is making these odds example #1. A good local rivalry, a home game, AND A SUPERIOR TEAM! Sheesh. By 8? Sure, I’ll go with that. Bills by 8.
New Orleans at Carolina 7 37 1/2
I’m having a tough time with this one. Carolina has defeated better teams than NO this year, but my gut tells me to go with NO. Must have been something I ate. Carolina, take the under.
Arizona at Dallas 7 1/2 37
If both of these teams didn’t stink so bad, it would be the game of the week. I like this rivalry, and Arizona has been fighting for respect this year. Dallas is so hard to put a finger on this year, which team will show up? I just don’t know. I’ll go with Arizona just because A comes before D in the alphabet.

**Seattle at Green Bay ** 2 1/2 46
Example #2 What moron made Seattle the underdog here? Sure, GB is better than their record indicates, and the game is at the vaunted Lambeau, but who here cannot see that the Seahawks are the superior team? Seattle, by at least a touchdown.

**San Diego at Jacksonville ** 3 42
Call this one the split personality bowl. I’ll go with San Diego, and you’ll giggle at my reasoning. They’ve lost to some very good teams this year. But so has Jacksonville! San Diego managed to keep it closer. This one is tough because Jax has home field, but I still lean towards SD.

**Denver at Kansas City ** 3 1/2 45 1/2
Game of the week. KC in a close one. Don’t quote me, Denver has more to prove.

**Minnesota at Atlanta ** 4 43
Everybody is waiting for last years Vikings to show up. They won’t. This team is the real deal. They will have their way with the Falcons in a similar fashion to last weeks 49ers.

**Miami at NY Giants ** 0 38
Example #3 Well, not really. Since the spread is 0. I’ll take Miami. By 0.

**Oakland at Chicago ** 4 42
I think the players want Jauron to leave. They will help him do just that. Oakland in a sleeper.

**Washington at Philadelphia ** 5 1/2 39 1/2
Philly just had a slow start, they’re better now, right? If Philly loses here, I won’t pick the bastards again for the rest of the year. Philly by 2.

**Cleveland at Pittsburgh ** 7 42
I smack talked Steelerphan earlier this week. Nobody tell him I picked his team, k?

**Detroit at San Francisco ** 7 41
TO wants to run a clinic here, but Detroit is actually not such a terrible team. SF seems to have lost some of it’s heart this year. I’m going to go with an ill advised win for Detroit.

**Tennessee at New England ** 1 1/2 40 1/2
I don’t understand the low spread. If I were a betting man… Tennessee

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay 4 1/2 37
Example #4 Who in the holy hell would bet against Indianapolis right now? Add to that, by over 4 points!!! At least they picked the Fish by 0! It’s a Nationally televised game! Do these people think Indianapolis will arrive groggy and overweight? If I were a betting man #2… Indy puts on a clinic to prove to everybody that they are the real deal.

8

I was so shocked I checked and double checked yesterday. I am certain Cincy was shown as the favorite, yet today, the Bills are favored by 7 1/2. A 15 1/2 point swing!?!?! It looks like a couple odds makers decided to put down their crack pipes.

9

The original odds I got for the OP were from Tuesday night. Maybe your source had a typo for the odds?

10

One more plug for Dopers to join the Pick’em Point Spread League and/or the Survivor League that I just started in Yahoo. Begins this Sunday. Thread with more info here. Nice part about it is that this would track all your predictions for the year and you can see what you would have done had you laid some jack down.

FWIW, in the Point Spread week it shows Buffalo as:

Monday: OFF
Tuesday: -8
Wednesday: -8
Final: -8

Which means that they were always the favorite. Maybe the editors where you found your spreads were the ones smoking crack.

11

BTW, my big quandry for the day is whether to start Steve McNair against a stingy (8th rated) Patriots Defense or a relatively porous Philly Defense (19th overall). Bear in mind that Dawkins, Taylor and Vincent are all injured in the Eagles secondary, and the defensive line has been banged up as well.

I need recos by noon, if you have any inputs or suggestions beyond the standard cliches.

12

I like Ramsey in that situation. I like the Patriots secondary.

13

You get to pick who McNair plays each week? Wow! You got pictures of Tagliabue with a 12 year old male crack whore or something? Anyhow, if this is my choice, make Tennessee play Philly.

:stuck_out_tongue:

14

If I had pics of Tagliabue with a 12 year old male crack whore then the Colts would be playing in Baltimore and the Indianapolis team would be called the Irsays.

15

I, for one, suggest we find a way to get you those pics ASAP. I like the way you think.

16

Thanks for picking up the ball guys, you’re gonna have to carry the load for a while. I had a fire at home the other day so I can’t post from home till I find another one. I missed all the games last week, so I’m shooting in the dark but here goes.

Cincy @ Buffalo

Buffalo, take the under.

Miami @ NY Blue

Miami upset.

Seattle @ Green Bay

I can figure out why GB is favored here. Somebody in Vegas has a real Crack problem. I’ve seen nothing to be impressed by Green Bay, and have been greatly impressed by Seattle. Green Bay losses at home.

Oakland @ Chicago

Every year the Raiders lose a game they’re susposed to win on paper. They already beat the Bungles, so this must be it here. No money on it though.

Aints @ Carolina

I couldn’t posssibly care less, so I’ll go with the odds makers.

Minnesota @ Atlanta

I didn’t see them against the Niners last week, but that score said enough for me to take them seriously. Minnesota, Falocons won’t cover.

Denver @ KC

This time the O/U looks right. I expect we should see Plummer running a lotthis week, and throwing on the run. Here’s where we see if it was AZ that made him look bad or if he just makes poor decisions under pressure. I’m going to take Denver.

Az @ Dallas.

When in doubt go with the home team. Dallas and take the over.

SD @ Jax

The other week I was asking whether the Bolts were that bad, I still haven’t made up my mind on that. I think this is where they step up, I won’t be putting money on it though.

Washington @ Philly

Overrated!! Overrated!!! I suspect McNabb will be using that as inspiration the rest of the season. Take Philly, take the over.

Detroit at SF

SF has been having trouble getting in sync. If they can put a gag on Owens I think they’ll pull it out, not to mention Jeff should be pissed which normally means a great game. The waying in Detroit is Marriucci can lose a few more games and keep his job, good thing. SF to win take the over.

Cleveland @ Pitts

Steelers win take the under.

Monday night take Tampa Bay.

17

Stuffy, I just responded to your question in my MPSIMS thread about those two new Yahoo leagues. Check it out and let me know if my directions made sense. If so maybe I’ll start a career writing user documentation.

18

I won’t if you won’t.

19

Hey!

I knew there was more than just his repetitive writing to explain why I didn’t like that guy.
This week’ll be a big test for the 'Skins. They’ve squeaked by 3 out of 4 times so far, and are notorious for playing poorly in division games, regardless of the coach it seems. We’ll see if they’ll continue to play consistently inconsistent or not.

The Iggles have something to prove, especially McNabb, but I think the 'Skins can exploit their secondary if the inexperienced Ramsey doesn’t get overwhelmed by Philly’s ability to hide and mix up their blitzes.

Here’s hoping McNabb tries too hard to silence his critics.