Woo hoo! I’m speculating like a mother frak!
(And I’m starting the thread a day early to share.)
Spoiler policy: If it’s been aired, or if it’s pure speculation, it doesn’t need to be boxed. If it’s known future information from a reliable source or it’s speculation based on same, box it, and provide a description of what’s in the box so we can decide whether or not to highlight it.
Okay, so, recapping the cliffhanger:
Cain and her crew have gone off the deep end.
Helo and Tyrol are about to be executed for killing Cain’s rape-happy interrogation officer while rescuing Boomer.
Adama has dispatched forces to retrieve Helo and Tyrol, and Cain is responding in kind.
Roslin, in the last stages of her illness, has so far been on the sidelines of this confrontation.
Apollo, no longer the CAG, is piloting a raptor on a reconnaisance mission to investigate the large unknown vessel which accompanies the two Cylon base stars that have been following Galactica and the rag tag fleet.
But he also assigned Starbuck to secretly swipe the stealth fighter and go reconnoiter the same Cylon ship on her own.
Baltar has made contact with Number Six Mark Two being held on Pegasus.
At the climax, Galactica’s rescue force is bearing down on Pegasus’s defensive perimeter.
Also, it’s worth mentioning that tonight’s episode is part one of a two parter, or, I guess, part two of a three parter. I read someplace that Moore & Eick were unable to cram the conclusion into a single hour and got permission from the network to stretch it into two episodes.
Okay. So.
The main question at hand: How do they resolve the cliffhanger? Seems to me there are five main possibilities.
1. They’re interrupted by the Cylons. Before intracolonial combat gets out of hand, a Cylon attack materializes, forcing Adama and Cain to set aside their differences in order to survive.
Pro: Would definitely provide a reason to abort the conflict. Con: Doesn’t solve anything; merely delays the inevitable, as Helo and Tyrol are still in custody and slated for execution. Plus it’s a literal deus ex machina. Sounds like a weak option; would have to be handled exceedingly well to work.
2. Roslin intervenes and Cain yields. Recognizing where things are headed, Roslin asserts her civilian authority over the military, and Cain backs down.
Pro: Provides a reason to abort the conflict, and partially resolves the power struggle in the short term, though of course Cain will chafe and a resumption of hostilities is probably still inevitable. Con: Seems very unlikely that Cain would accede to Roslin, given her disdain for the schoolteacher, though if you look at the very end of the cliffhanger, there are a couple of shots of Cain’s crew looking dubious about her orders that suggest they’re complying against their will, so Cain may not want to push them, and decides that backing down is the best choice in the immediate short term. Still, kind of a reach. Again, would have to be handled exceedingly well to work.
3. Roslin intervenes, Cain rejects her, and Pegasus mutinies. Same as above, with a different resolution.
Pro: Definitely plausible. Con: I don’t want the Cain storyline to be wrapped up right out of the gate. From a storytelling standpoint, it’s unsatisfying to see Cain deposed and in the brig before the ten-minute mark; the conflict here is rich and provocative and needs to play out completely. On the other hand, it could be a partial mutiny; Pegasus could descend into internal chaos, with Cain leading one faction, and some but not all of the Pegasus’s viper pilots defecting to Galactica’s side, providing parity in the dogfight. This could take up a full episode. Probably the most likely alternative; I’d be satisfied with this.
(By the way, I’d like to address some comments that were made in the previous thread about whether or not Roslin, as civilian leader, does in fact have authority over the military, as is the case in the U.S. During the few months of downtime, I’ve gone back and re-watched most of the shows up to this point, and there are several places in the miniseries and season one where it’s strongly implied that the President does, under the Articles of Colonization, have this authority. For example, in “You Can’t Go Home Again,” the episode where Starbuck is stranded on the moon and Adama puts the fleet at risk looking for her, when Roslin shows up on Galactica to confront him, she says to Tigh in the corridor, “I’m not here to issue orders,” and Tigh responds, “It may take an order.” Also, in “Tigh Me Up Tigh Me Down,” in which Baltar finishes his Cylon detector, there’s a scene at the beginning where Adama and Roslin are discussing who should be tested first. Adama says it should be the people at the top, to show the fleet the leadership can be trusted. Roslin says, “I completely agree, I think you should go first.” Adama, taken slightly aback, says, “Well, maybe you should go first,” implying that Roslin technically outranks him. There are other examples. They’ve never explicitly said that it’s true, but they’ve very strongly suggested it. And given the way they’ve paralleled our own world pretty closely, I think it makes sense to interpret the implications that way.)
4. The reconnaisance mission returns with important information. Either Apollo’s official detachment or Starbuck’s unofficial solo run learns something significant and returns with an urgent dispatch, precipitating a pause in the action.
Pro: Something seriously eye-opening could cause ample reason for everybody to stand down. Con: It would have to be major. Also, for this story to work, we’d have the surveillance mission reappear without actually seeing what happened to them. I don’t know how satisfied I’d be with that; I suspect there’s some story there and I’d like to see it firsthand (note Starbuck’s objection during the mission briefing to the observation strategy — “your plan sucks” — suggesting that it won’t go particularly well). Plus, as with number one above, doesn’t do anything about the Helo/Tyrol situation. Probably the weakest alternative.
5. Pegasus and Galactica go at it. Nothing interrupts the fight. Pegasus kicks Galactica’s ass, and Adama withdraws, bloodies but defiant. Cain begins to assume complete authority. Then… what? The fleet rebels, like in the season two episode “Resistance?” Or then one of the three things above happens?
Pro: The uncompromising nature of the show makes me suspect this option, while most difficult to pull off, is a dark horse to number three above. Con: I have no idea what would happen next. Not necessarily “con,” of course. 
Dangling threads, unanswered questions, and open plot points:
Why didn’t Cain and the crew of Pegasus react at all to Roslin’s apparent role as a prophet, and all the revelations about learning the location of Earth? You’d think this would be a big deal, especially if Cain is on the edge of maintaining command; the Pegasus crew might be desperate for anything hopeful given the darkness of their situation, and finding out about Earth would be quite a stunner. Yet it never came up. (Maybe this was one of the fifteen minutes of deleted scenes from the cliffhanger episode. Those aren’t on the season 2.0 DVD; apparently they’re saving them so they can do a fully extended version of the episode when the second-half DVD is released.) This is the only card Roslin can play that might make option two above plausible, I think.
What’s the deal with the mysterious Cylon ship?
Was the Pegasus deck chief really pressed into service as he seemed to unhappily suggest when talking to Tyrol? And what does this say about the state of mind of Pegasus’s crew?
Will Starbuck keep her promise to Anders to send somebody back to help? And will we learn more about why she was in that hospital?
Is Roslin really in the last weeks of her life?
Has Baltar, on seeing the abused Six, finally turned his back on humanity? Will he embrace his status as traitor and villain once and for all?
Known spoilers:
I’m trying to avoid learning anything significant about what’s to come, but I’ve inadvertently come across a few tidbits in interviews and such, so I’ll share here.
From an interview with Mary McDonnell and Edward James Olmos, about the relationship between Roslin and Adama; not huge, but a big hint:They’re going to become very close, possibly driven by external conflict (Cain?), and apparently there’s even a kiss in the works. Romantic? Unknown.
From a fan site, about the fate of Pegasus:Lee Adama will assume command of the second battlestar. Nothing firm about what happens to Cain.
Also from a fan site, about the development of Roslin’s cancer; again, not a total giveaway, but a big hint:Apparently the mysterious Cylon ship will be connected somehow to Roslin getting a new lease on life.
From an interview with Katee Sackhoff, about the Anders character (minor):We definitely haven’t seen the last of him.
And finally, a non-spoiler statement by Olmos in the “SciFi Inside” Galactica recap that’s been airing this week in preparation for the resumption of the series:
"The back ten will make the first half look like it was standing still."
Ooo, I’m all a-twitter… 