Despite the evidence of Utah - Alabama, or Boise State - Oklahoma, people keep insisting that the non-AQ teams will be crushed whenever they play a “real” team in a bowl game.
It’s pretty realistic that Stanford could lose to Oregon or Notre Dame and Oklahoma State could lost to Oklahoma. That would leave an SEC team, Boise State and possibly Houston as the only unbeatens. If that doesn’t get a mid-major in the championship game, it will never happen. I’d love to see it.
I’m still behind the LSU-Bama winner vs the Stanford-Oregon winner.
The LSU-BAMA winner will still have a couple of potential traps left in their schedule.
Each will have to the SEC East Division winner, looking like USCe or UGA.
And LSU has to play a home game w/ Arkansas
and Bama has to play at Aubrun.
Bama/LSU should be heavy favorites in those games. But anything can happen.
I would hate to see a Oregon/LSU rematch. LSU already won that game.
My preference is to see the LSU/Bama winner against Stanford.
I’m thinking it will play out to be LSU v. Stanford.
And I’m thinking Bama-Stanford. 
As someone in the Houston area, and who watched their game with Rice last Thursday, Houston has absolutely no business being in any of the BCS bowls. Their offense is really good, provided it’s not raining (we’ll see how they handle Tulsa ice and cold in late November), but they play utterly no defense what so ever. Their best win is 38-34 against a meh 4-4 UCLA team. In Houston. I am happy for the Coogs, and would like them to win out, but they would get absolutely crushed by most of the teams below them in the BCS Top 25. They will probably get to play current #25 Southern Miss in the C-USA championship game, Dec. #3.
Currently, I’m guessing the BCS championship game will be LSU/Ok. State, though Alabama winning this Saturday wouldn’t surprise me at all. Alabama/OSU’d be a good game too. I’m thinking Stanford won’t beat Oregon, and I can’t the NCAA PTB allowing Boise into the championship unless there’s absolutely no alternative. If Houston and Boise win out, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Boise/UH game. And in that game, I’d take Boise and lay 28+.
Just give us a playoff already.
I am specifically talking about the National Championship game. I understand that non-AQ teams are capable of beating AQ teams and have on a regular basis, but not in the NC game.
In theory, it should be no different whether we’re talking about #5 vs #8 in the Fiesta Bowl or #1 vs #2 in the BCS NCG: an overrated team from the SEC meets an underrated team from the WAC, and an upset happens.
In practice, I don’t think it’ll be this year. LSU’s defense is too good.
Or, hey, how about a rematch of LSU/Alabama in the BCS championship? Since there is no college football like SEC football, don’tcha know, and everybody else is Division II? :rolleyes: I keed, I keed … I’d love to tear down the SEC plenty, but they just keep winning that last game, so you gotta give 'em at least some props.
Seriously, though, I’ve already heard ESPN radio throwing that rematch possibility out there. C’mon, man! You cannot be serious! If Stanford or Okie State is still unbeaten at the end of the season, NO WAY you can put a one-loss SEC team in the championship ahead of them. Heck, I wouldn’t agree with putting them ahead of an unbeaten Boise State, and I’m no fan of BSU’s schedule. Either Bama or LSU will have their chance Saturday. You lose that one, you don’t get another shot. Sorry.
Which is another reason why college football is a season-long proposition when it comes to a champion, and I kinda like it that way. Every game becomes a playoff game. Clemson runs into a fired-up Georgia Tech? Sorry, Tigers! Oklahoma shoots their own toe off versus a Texas Tech team that gets blown out by Iowa State the next week? Too late, Sooners! You gotta win your games to make it to the top, and that’s as it should be.
It’s just talk; don’t take it seriously. They did the same thing 5 years ago, in the countdown to Ohio State - Michigan. And then it turned out both teams got waxed in their bowl games.
(Expect the talk to get very intense this time, though, from those who think the SEC is the be-all and end-all of college football.)
It could happen this time.
If Oregon beats Stanford, they won’t have the anti-rematch thing going for them because LSU already beat Oregon.
So it would come down to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. If they somehow both get 2 losses, we would have an LSU-Alabama rematch. If Oklahoma gets 2 losses but beats Oklahoma State, we might still get an LSU-Alabama rematch because losing late is worse than losing early.
If Oklahoma finishes with 1 loss, I suspect they would be ahead of the LSU-Alabama loser, but since the computer rankings are a black box that spits out garbage we are supposed to believe is meaningful because “computers aren’t biased”, it isn’t a done deal.