BCS shakeup - OK St. goes down - and then there were two

Well this jumbles things up quite a bit. Who do you guys think should play for the National Championship? I’m an Alabama fan, but I’m not a fan of rematches. So, while I didn’t think that it should be ‘Bama in the NCG (before Oklahoma State’s loss), there is no logical argument for Oregon, because not only would that be a rematch also, but ‘Bama played LSU as close as anybody has, while LSU whupped up on Oregon. (However, I have read people try to make this argument for Oregon.)

So I’ve got to think that it’s either ‘Bama or, if the voters REALLY don’t want a rematch, I guess it would be the winner of the OK/OKSt. Game. They are the only teams currently in the top 6 that LSU wouldn’t have already beaten (assuming LSU beats Arkansas*, who will then be out of the top 6, but only because they lost to the top 2 teams.) If OK beats St., that win will be less impressive due to St.’s loss yesterday.

Stanford is really the only other option. Well, as I alluded in the title, we should discuss Houston…… or maybe we shouldn’t.

Man, if there was ever a year when we could just declare a NC without a NCG and there be no controversy, this would be it.
My guess is that if OK St. beats Oklahoma, then the voters will pick OK. St. to avoid a rematch, since their only loss was in overtime.

So, what do you think WILL happen? And what do you think SHOULD happen?

One other question that I just thought of: If ‘Bama and LSU do play for the NC, who will play in the Sugar Bowl? It can’t be an SEC team, correct? Is there a contingency for this?

  • What happens if Arkansas beats LSU is probably worthy of its own thread.

Oregon is losing pretty badly to USCw right now. A loss will take them out of the running.

And Baylor is giving Oklahoma a game.

Wouldn’t it just irk the Boise St/TCU supporters to see Houston get into the BCS game after all the whining that they have done the last few years.

Now it is official: Oregon and Oklahoma are both out. I would say that Oklahoma State has a puncher’s chance IF they beat Oklahoma AND IF the human voters make a concerted effort to make the NCG not a rematch. If the latter happens, then Stanford and Houston also have a puncher’s chance, and Clemson is kicking themselves for blowing their chance.

ETA: Will this be the first time ever that the top 3 teams will be from the same conference? It will only be for 1 week, but it looks to me like LSA, Alabama and Arkansas will hold the top 3 positions.

I made a post earlier today in the CFB thread that it was going to be a boring day.

I have no clue what happens next.

Has Virginia Tech moved into BCS game consideration? One Loss? Shitty OOC schedule though.

Not only the same conference, but also the same division: the SEC West. I hope Arkansas beats LSU next week just to throw everything out of whack. If that doesn’t bring forth a real playoff system, nothing will.

Even crazier, if Arkansas does beat LSU, the team with the highest BCS ranking would represent the SEC West in the SEC Championship game. If that team loses that game, you could have 2 teams in the BCS Championship game that didn’t even make it into their own conference’s championship game.

I pick Arkansas vs… Hell, I don’t know.

No, I’m not crazy. Hear me out. After today, the 10 and 1 Razorbacks are going to be ranked third in the BCS rankings behind LSU and Alabama. If they beat LSU next Saturday the pollsters are going to jump them to number 1 and they will win the SEC west.

I’m an Auburn fan, so I don’t have a dog in this, but don’t forget about the pigs. They’re pretty damn good.
Edited to ad that Jacknifed Juggernaut ninja’d me a bit. Good thing.

I don’t know…

I think if Arkansas beats LSU in a close game the rankings may not even change. LSU stays #1 with a loss because of their much better OOC, Alabama stays #2 since they beat Arkansas by so much, Arkansas stays #3 with their weaker schedule and less dominating wins.

So it might be a meaningless game.

Nah, Arkansas will leap frog. The games at the end of the season always seem more to the pollsters, so I don’t see how they pick anybody but the last team to win. They reward victories and punish losses on a sliding scale based on how late it is in the season. Call it “momentum”.

Poor choice of titles…

But yeah. There’s just the tiniest chance my Cowboys can back into a title game. Just beat OU and get a BCS bid, then let the rest work itself out. Was rooting hard for Cal late last night. Ah well.

OK, let’s do it here. :slight_smile: What is the SD on this? I saw sometime that the 7th and final tiebreaker (I believe the first is head-to-head. What are the other 5?) is BCS rankings. BUT, if they are within 5 BCS rankings, then it’s head-to-head (WTF?). I think it’s safe to assume that if Arkansas beats LSU that LSU will stay in the top 5. I’d say, due to monkey with a gun being correct, it will be Arkansas at #1 and Bama at #2 and LSU not too many steps behind. Does anybody know for sure who would play for the SEC championship then?

Gosh, it seems like only yesterday we were debating the whole Texas/Texas Tech/Oklahoma 3-way situation. Won’t it be fun to relive that?
[On a side note: Am I the only one who thinks that South Carolina should have won the East due to the fact that they beat each of the other 5 teams from the East? Georgia edged USC out with their respective games against SEC west teams.]

As of right now, it has to be LSU versus Houston. What more can a team do than not lose any games - and what more can a team do to prove that it shouldn’t be a national champion than to lose?

FWIW, the computers don’t give a damn when a team loses and they are 33% of the BCS formula.

If LSU loses a close game, they will not drop far, probably #3 and I think computers will still rank them #1.

Since the teams all play different schedules, the won-loss record can’t be the only consideration. I don’t think a lot of people believe Houston is better than the six teams between it and LSU.

(emphasis mine) AFAIU, the computers also don’t give a damn about margin of victory.

Yes. You are the only one.

I am, admittedly, a Georgia homer - but my problem with your method is not that SCar would be in the SEC CG. My problem is that out-of-division conference games MEAN something right now. If you don’t count them towards your conference record, they don’t really mean anything. And someone could win out in their division, get blown out 3 times in their out-of-division games, and still make the title game. Do not like.

Correct, Margin of Victory is not counted in computer rankings. Only who they played, and who their opponents played, and who their opponents opponents play. etc.

I don’t get why people think Arkansas will jump LSU if they beat them close.

Arkansas got crushed by Alabama and has no good OOC wins. And they have played a lot of close games. The computers don’t care about margin of victory, but the voters might.

LSU has beaten 2 potential champs from other conferences (Oregon and West Virginia), Alabama has beaten 1 (Penn State).

I’m a huge opponent of rematches, but if Oregon, West Virginia, and Penn State all win their conferences, you could almost call that a playoff and have LSU face Alabama again.

So yeah, I think there is a good chance Arkansas stays #3 with a win.

Voters care about when a loss happens. A loss at the end of the season is much worse than a loss at the beginning or half way through.

Nah. It only shows that the system is broken.

Yes, but the other 67% are the human polls, and humans absolutely care when a team loses (and by how much, to an extant). If LSU loses, I don’t expect to see them #1 in the BCS.