Bernie's chances: Speak to me in sports analogies

I’m confused. On the one hand, I hear that Hillary is the inevitable nominee, on the other hand, I hear that Bernie has great odds of overtaking her.
If this were football, would Team Bernie be trailing Team Hillary by one touchdown at halftime? Or is this more like trailing by four touchdowns at halftime and Team Hillary gets the ball to start the 2nd half?

In order to win at this stage, Sanders has to score a touchdown on every remaining possession, force at least one turnover and confine Clinton to scoring no more than a field goal or two.

Tottenham Hotspur lost 3-0 to Dortmund on Thursday. In order to progress to the next round they need to win by 4 clear goals, or get the exact score of 3-0 and play through and win on extra time/penalties. Any other 3 goal win for Spurs and Dortmund progress. Tottenham have about the same chance of progressing to the next stage as Bernie.

My take.

Going in to the game, the line was Clinton by 21 points. At the end of the first half Clinton was up by 17. But now near the end of the third quarter Bernie scored a field goal and caught an interception so he’s got some momentum, but he’s still down by two TD’s and Clinton is an overall better team.

I’d love to see Bernie get the nomination, and I think he should get the nomination, but the realistic sports analogy is that Bernie has about as much chance of getting the nomination as the New York Rangers have of winning the World Series.

The US presidential selection process is like baseball before 1969.

What Bernie and Ted need is for there to be playoffs after the end of the regular four month primary season ending June 7.

One possibility is northeast vs. southeast, and northwest vs. southwest, followed by an East vs. West classic. This could give Bernie a chance!

More imaginative matchups could give even more interest to the game, increasing attendance/turnout. Say, high-education states vs. low education states. Or even low-minority population vs. high minority.

It seems to me that Trump was weak on Saturday March 5, following a disastrous debate performance two days before. If not for advance voting, he could have lost all around. But then he came roaring back on Tuesday March 8. This makes me think of another way to raise interest – have the playoffs work as a series. If the, to use Trump’s phrase, poorly educated, win two out of three, hey, that’s fair, isn’t it?

If scheduled correctly, we still could hold the superbowl, excuse me general election, right after the World’s Series.

My good man, this is the United States. We tolerate soccer in this great country, but we will never allow such a foul and unworthy game to carry the honorable title of “football.” Football is played by courageous men armored up for battle, like Hillary, while soccer is played by men in wet shorts, like Sanders. (okay, Depends)

Please do not make this mistake again.

How about a baseball analogy?

It’s the bottom of the fourth and Hillary is up 7-5 but she’s got Ruth, Mantle, and Mays coming up and Koufax is pitching well. Bernie’s team is good, and they’ve scored some hits, but it’s unlikely that Reggie Jackson, Sammy Sosa, and Ken Griffey Jr can make up the deficit.

Considering the number of delegates an NBA analogy is probably most appropriate.

You need to stop thinking in terms of games and think in terms of seasons.

Back during his Baseball Prospectus days Nate Silver and those guys would calculate the odds of a team making the playoffs based on both games won and time left in the season. So halfway through the season if they were behind you’d find out they need to win 58% of their remaining games to hit some expected win total to make the playoffs.

That’s about where Sanders in now.
Clinton has 772 of the pledged delegates.
Sanders has 549.

To win the nomination either needs 2026 delegates.

Sanders is 14% below where he should be at this point in the contest to win the nomination. Clinton is 13% ahead.

So, Sanders needs to win about 57-58% of the remaining games (delegates) in the season to claim the nomination. This becomes increasingly hard due to both the number of delegates he wins/loses and the amount of time remaining in the season.

So in baseball terms, Bernie has to go 47-34 against Clinton HEAD-TO-HEAD (two candidates makes it a zero-sum game, he can’t feast on the cellar dwellers) for the entire rest of the season to win. Clinton, on the other hand, has the reverse. If she wins just 42% of the remaining games she cruises to victory.

Early leads are important. The season is long…but it ain’t that long. And it’s getting shorter for Sanders. Remember, Sanders won Michigan last week, but still lost ground in delegates overall.

Bernie is like a baseball team that is 15 games out on Sept 1 and in 4th place in their division. They need to get hot in a hurry and hope the team in front has a collapse.

Not quite. That scenario would require that several teams collapse. That just doesn’t happen and is, frankly, the scenario both Kasich and Rubio and looking at on the R side of the primaries. Both of them need at least two other campaigns to implode to realistically win at this point.

Bernies best hope is that something causes Clinton to implode quickly. Without that he’s a real long-shot.

The Los Angeles Lakers recently beat The Golden State Warriors in a head-to-head contest.

The Lakers are are 14-52. The Warriors are 58-6.

That’s where Sanders stands. It is not close. It is over. The only way Sanders can win is if Clinton drops out of the race.

Sanders must not only win, but win big. He can sweep the remaining primaries 52-48 and still lose. I think a better analogy is that he is an NFL team that is required to win the remaining 5 games of the season, and each opponent is spotted 21 points.

And yes, count the cellar dwellers. Some states will be easier to win big, some will be virtually impossible. Some are the worst teams and some are the 1972 Dolphins.

No. You shouldn’t speak in such absolutes. Sanders must win about 57%+ of the remaining delegates. That’s a tough hill but hardly impossible. 7 of the 9 states he’s won have been by that margin or more. I don’t think he’ll do it and his likely pummeling in Florida will make it even harder but I think impossible is a little strong at this point.

Yep, pure penant baseball when you won your league solely based off of regular season, then got to go straight to the World Series, is a great analogy for this race. Down 223 delegates is like being 20 games back from first in your league with only say, 35 games left.

Bernie is the Toronto Raptors and he is behind 15 to the Golden State Warriors at halftime, but the Warriors lost their last game and they know they have to win if they want to make history.

First, that’s not true.

State	Date	Delegates	Clinton	Sanders	Delegate Allocation	
(2,382 Needed to Win)	-	4763	1227	576	
Delegates Won	-	         4051	748	542		
Superdelegates	-	        (712)	461	25 

Sanders needs 2382. That 67% of the 2761 remaining delegates.

Second, he will win neither 57% nor 67% of the remaining delegates.

That chart is kind of messed up and I believe the focus of your math is too. You are the first I have seen claim that he needs 67% - yes for the outright win that’s true(actually 65%), just as Hillary needs 59% of the remaining delegates. But he just needs to get ahead of Hillary in the pledged delegate count to pressure the Supers to switch over, which happens at winning 57% of remaining.

My paranthesed bit was wrong, 67% is the right number for an outright win.