Wood isn’t really a hobbit, you know… 
He’s close enough in height, NoClueBoy. 
Ah… man!
Penn will win. I’ve not seen Mystic River, but here’s why:
- By all accounts he does a great job in the role.
- He’s done a couple of other good turns before that were passed over.
- He did a total liberal flameout over Iraq, and the Academy likes to support liberal causes.
Count on it.
IMO, Murray should probably win. Or the guy who played Koro in Whale Rider. Would love to see Keisha Castle-Hughes win for her role in the same.
Depp might get a nod…he got nominated for a Golden Globe. He is considered one of the better actors of his generation. Probably won’t win, but might get a nod.
The cast and crew of LOTRs has screwed themselves over as much as they’ve been cursed by their genre. They’ve spent three years whining about losing Oscars they were lucky to get nominated for and whining about not getting nominated for Oscars they didn’t. The Academy doesn’t like to be told who to vote for (although lobbying is necessary) and doesn’t like to be told they were wrong. At this point, I’d be shocked to see them win anything (with the exception of special effects and makeup and such).
In a perfect world, this would be the end of the list, and he’d win for this reason alone.
But this is also a large part of why is favored, and will probably win.
Oh, come on. You really think “The Academy” as a monolithic creature singles out “liberal” causes to support? Granted, the average Hollywood star or producer may lean left, but ascribing political motives to an organization which hands out awards by tallying thousands of secret votes is a bit silly. Don’t you remember the stink over the Academy’s honorary Oscar for Elia Kazan? The liberal MEMBERS of the Academy certainly weren’t pleased with that.
And I’m back to agreeing with you here.
I think Depp and Murray both deserve it equally. You can’t really compare the roles of the two. It’s like comparing a Van Gogh to a hydroelectric plant.
depp was great, however, sean penn will win best actor this year hands down…
and…daniel day lewis should have won last year, but that’s another story…
Although I think the hydroelectric plant does an excellent job of producing power at a low marginal cost, I gotta give it to Van Gogh for vivd color and experimental use of form.
I’ve seen the movie, and he does do a good job. However, there are a few moments where he seems a little over-the-top (to anyone who’s seen it, when he’s screaming “Is that my daughter in there?” I was watching with a girl who was a theater major in college, and still works in the industry, and I pointed it out to her). Then again, I don’t know anyone who’s went through the same thing, so I can’t say with 100% certainty that it WAS excessive, but it seemed that way to me.
That’s odd. I hope he wins best actor for his role in this. I was talking with friends after seeing the movie and what I marvelled at was how understated his performance was. For the grieving criminal father of a murdered girl he had very few big moments. Most of what you know about how Jimmy felt is delivered in a few words and a gesture. He struck me as very insular and contained.
And that’s very true, don’t ask. For the most part, I agree with everyone raving about his performance. However, the initial scene where he screams “is that my daughter in there?” just stuck in my craw. He atoned himself in the rest of the movie, but didn’t quite redeem himself, IMHO. I’m of the opinion that, if he DOES win the Oscar, it’ll be more for his BODY of work, as opposed to this particular role. Much like Denzel’s winning for Training Day instead of John Q, which, I thought, was the stronger performance.
Having now seen PoTC, I don’t think that Depp’s performance is really Oscar caliber. Amusing and all, but not especially timeless or anything. Shrug. He’s done better… Ed Wood, Dead Man.
Incidentally, the Oscars can’t decide willy nilly to put someone in the Best or Best Supporting category. It’s established in the billing of the movie, something relentlessly worked out by agents and producers is where the name goes. The lead actors names have to come first, often before the title. Depp’s name is the first billed, so he’d have to be nominated for best actor, which isn’t bloody likely (I’d be surprised if the movie got any oscars outside of visual effects and costumes and whatnot). There are lots of politics involved with the categorizing of actors as lead or supporting actors. Two incidents where this lead to weirdness is Geoffery Rush (PoTC tie-in!) got Best Actor for Shine when he was only in the last part of the movie, and it was really the actor who played him as a kid who deserved it; and when Timothy Hutton, clearly the central character in Ordinary People and thought by most critics to deserve Best Actor, settled for Best Supporting… Donald Sutherland was the lead actor because of billing (that was Hutton’s first movie, so even though he was the main character, he didn’t get top billing).
I agree completely. PotC was a fun movie, but there was nothing Oscar-caliber about it. Truth be told, after hearing about how great everyne thought it was, I was a little disappointed by it. I enjoyed Depp’s performance, but the main reason he was so good in it was because it suited his standard talents well. Depp is Captain Jack Sparrow in the same way that Keanu Reeves is Neo (or Ted Logan, take your pick) or Jim Carrey is Ace Ventura. It’s not a huge stretch for these guys to do this sort of work. Mind you, I appreciate Depp as an actor much more than Reeves or even Carrey… but he’s done better than PotC. Ed Wood is a great example, as is What’s Eating Gilbert Grape and even Don Juan DeMarco.
As for Elijah Wood, I wonder if he’ll get nominated. His performance in Return of the King was, in and of itself, fairly static. However, if you compare the Frodo of Return with the lighthearted, happy Hobbit of the first half of Fellowship, there’s a world of difference there. Not sure if that exactly applies, but I definitely think Wood expressed a pretty good dramatic range from the first film to the last one. I could see him getting nominated, but probably not winning.
It’d be nice to see Sean Astin win for Best Supporting, though. He really shined in RotK.
For Best Actor, though, my bets are on either Bill Murray or Sean Penn. Probably Sean Penn, if only because he’s “owed” an Oscar at this point, and his turn in Mystic River was really good. Not overplayed at all, in my opinion. I’d like to see Bill Murray win, because I’ve always liked his acting (ever see his version of The Razor’s Edge?), and Lost in Translation was wonderful, but I think it’s less likely, thanks to the politics of the Academy.