Betting odds on Trump getting into the White House in the 2024 election or shortly after

Is anybody making book publicly on Trump winning the election or getting it overthrown?

I anticipate fivethirtyeight.com starting to do this once candidates have declared, specifically for winning (not overthrowing).

There are futures markets for this sort of thing. However, although people treat them as if their purpose is essentially gambling, as if they’re a prediction tool, for at least some the stated purpose is to allow people to cover their exposures for other reasons. Likewise, the nationwide futures markets for commodities were IIRC created to help for example farmers better predict their incomes next year, though we generally understand them as frenetic gambling operations (like in “Trading Places”). All the same, some such market for the next election could be interesting.

I guess I’m wondering how sour to feel about the future…

At Betfair you can back Trump at 4.6 (21.7% implied chance) or lay him at 4.8 (20.8% implied chance) The market will ultimately be decided on who Congress say is the president in Jan 2025, not necessarily the fair winner of the election.

“Back”? “Lay”? Am I right to infer that this market in effect says he’s slightly more likely to gain office than not? I don’t know these terms in a betting context.

Is this assuming he runs? Or are these odds for “he runs and wins”? Or for “he gets in there one way or another”?

These are the percentage chances based on the question “Will Congress consider Donald Trump to be the winner of the 2024 election?”

Backing means you are saying yes to that question, you will get £36 profit for every £10 you risk if you’re right
Laying means saying no, you will get £10 profit for every £38 you risk if you’re right.

Since you can bet either side of the market, the implied pecentage chance Donald Trump will be certified the winner of 2024 is somewhere between 20.8% and 21.7%

If he doesn’t run, (or dies), he simply loses this market.

I was thinking about this and my hunch was:
80% chance of Trump running
80% chance of Trump winning the GOP nomination if he runs
30% of Trump winning the general election if he is the GOP candidate.

Multiply these out and that gives around 19%, quite close to the implied chance mentioned.

OK, now I’m really confused. That question will eventually be answered Yes or No. The percentage chances for those have to total 100%. Or do I completely misunderstand you?

Too early to offer a 2024 prediction.

However, if the Republicans take the House in 2022, Trump will be appointed Speaker. (The Speaker is not required to be a Member of Congress.) Trump will then consider himself partially re-instated as president where he will challenge every Democratic initiative as Speaker. He will cause so much divisiveness and dissension, Trump will run and win the presidency in 2024, with a full Republican Congress (House and Senate) .

To “back” is to place a bet where you stake a certain amount, and win if the specified outcome DOES happen. To “lay” is simply to take the other side of that bet - you receive the backer’s stake, which you keep if the specified outcome DOES NOT happen, but you must pay out the backer’s winnings if the specified outcome DOES happen.

In something with only two possible complementary outcomes “Trump wins” and “Trump loses”, to LAY the outcome “Trump wins” is equivalent to BACKING the complementary outcome “Trump loses”.

The implied probabilities 21.7% and 20.8% do not refer to the complementary outcomes “Trump wins” and “Trump loses”. They both refer to the “Trump wins” outcome, and they are the bid/ask spread for that outcome - analogous to the bid/ask on a stock being (say) 50 1/8 - 50 1/4, where you receive the slightly lower price if you want to sell, you pay the slightly higher price if you want to buy. In this case, with respect to the outcome “Trump wins”, if you want to BACK that outcome there is someone in the market who will take the other side of your bet at implied probability 21.7%; whereas if you want to LAY that outcome, there is someone in the market who will take the other side of your bet at implied probability 20.8%.

And again, LAYING “Trump wins” at an implied probability of 20.8% is completely equivalent to BACKING the complementary outcome “Trump loses” at an implied probability of (1-20.8%)=79.2%.

If you want to consider the market entirely in terms of what outcomes you “back”, the market is:
you can back Trump to win at implied probability 21.7%
you can back Trump to lose at implied probability 79.2%
Considering the market this way, you will always find that the sum of the implied probabilities of all possible outcomes is slightly more than 100%, which here represents the bid-ask spread in the marketplace (equivalent in a historical context to the bookmaker’s vigorish).

As was pointed out by Lawrence O’Donnell the other night, Trump would never accept the Speakership, because he’d have to pay for his own D.C. lodging. And the Trump International in D.C. is no longer on the table.

Ah!! Got it!!

And this makes me feel a bit less sour about the future, too.,

Plus which, being Speaker requires doing actual, y’know … work. Work that can’t be done by tweeting while sitting on the toilet at oh-dark-thirty. And being needed on the House floor might conflict with Fox & Friends.

Do any of these betting pools allow for the case that Trump becomes president again before Jan. 20, 2025 (or before Congress decides that he will)?

Indeed. And, the Speaker is not protected from investigation by the Justice Department, a protection that served him well while in the Oval Office. He’s not going to be able to treat ethics laws so cavalierly as Speaker.

I think it’s very unlikely that Trump would agree to be Speaker, if only because he would consider the position beneath him. But if he did, there are very few duties he couldn’t slough off on a Kevin McCarthy or whoever as his Speaker pro tempore. Trump could just hand him the gavel and tell him to call him when it’s time for him to make faces at Biden in the background of the State of the Union.

I don’t think Trump would be inhibited by this.

Except that the chances of Trump getting the nomination would be closer to 100%.

And I’d give a higher chance of winning in November.

So I’ll say 65, 98, and 55 for the three percentages respectively.

I have an almost moral opposition to gambling, But, at these odds, if I was a betting man, I like the Donald.

“He’s not going to be able to treat ethics laws so cavalierly as Speaker for long”?