Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out)

[MulderMuffin]

@Measure_for_Measure

@Hawkeyeop

The incumbency advantage is pretty weak in recent years.

Cite? With data? Because in congress there are a huge number of safe seats. The last Presidential incumbent who lost was Trump in 2020, but he’s an historically weird candidate.

From a different topic in the board, but apropos.

@Velocity

Also, bear in mind that in the past half-century, incumbent presidents have lost just as many times (4) as they’ve won (4). Ford, Carter, Bush Sr. and Trump lost. Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr. and Obama won. So a 4-4 record suggests that incumbent advantage doesn’t mean all that much anyway.

Incumbency as it relates to the White House looks like a complete toss-up.