Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out)

Politics & Elections
2077

I believe (based mostly on feelings) there’s a high likelihood that Biden has already made his decision, or is 90% there and will have made it very shortly, to step down as candidate (but not President). But any stepping-down will be highly orchestrated, and thus probably won’t happen immediately.

My WAG on what will happen within the next 10 days or so:

  1. Biden’s team will announce a new medical concern/diagnosis (not serious enough for hospitalization)
  2. Biden will retreat home to Delaware to discuss things privately with family
  3. Lots of praise and concern from high profile Democrats
  4. After a day or two Biden will announce due to medical concerns, he won’t be able to keep up a vigorous campaign schedule, and thus will focus full time on being President and step down as presumptive nominee. He will praise Harris and possibly endorse her but it won’t be anything like “Harris will replace me as nominee”.
  5. Tons of praise from Democratic leadership for both Biden and Harris, along with lots of endorsements for Harris but nothing that smacks of a coronation. Democrats will have a coordinated message that “Harris is wonderful and ready to serve but the rules of the Democratic convention mean that the delegates will be free to support whom they wish”.
  6. Some token minor Democrats (probably Congress back-benchers) will announce they will run for the nomination and make their case to delegates. Most other Democrats will endorse Harris.
  7. There will be very brief campaigning prior to the August delegate vote (for Ohio). It will all be positive. No one will attack Harris. Most high profile Democrats will endorse Harris.
  8. The August delegate vote will occur and overwhelmingly nominate Harris in a landslide. A second ceremonial vote will occur to ask for unanimous support and it will succeed.
  9. The Democratic convention will be all about celebrating Biden’s life of service and hyping Harris. It will succeed in that the vast majority of Democrats will be excited to vote for Harris in the fall.

All my wild-ass-guess. Let’s see what kind of guesser I am.