I’ve been feeling that too. However, at this point I can cope with the hurt feelings. I can’t cope with a Trump win.
There are plenty of facts that at least suggest it. Biden is polling way below Democratic senate candidates in competitive states. A majority of Democrat question his ability to be president. New polling out today shows him trailing Harris and other in head to head matchups vs Trump.
Also Biden has dropped a couple points in avg on post debate polling. Not a huge amount, and the votes haven’t necessarily gone to Trump, but a bad sign when you are already losing.
This country would rather die than have a female president. I’m in Illinois and would heartily endorse Pritzker. My sister now lives in Alabama but still hates Pritzker. I love my sister, but would love to see her squirm.
A far-fetched thought: How would it look to the electorate if Biden resigned, Harris then appointed him VP, and the Biden-Harris ticket for the election just flipped to Harris-Biden?
Exactly. Either Biden staying or dropping out is a risk, and the stakes could not be higher. I view him dropping out as the lesser risk, if it is handled well. It could have an incredibly galvanizing effect on younger voters and apathetic voters.
Just guessing, of course, but I suspect that “Biden drops out and is replaced by an energetic, articulate, younger candidate” is the Trump strategists’ worst nightmare. And boy wouldn’t I like to make their nightmares come true.
I have no idea if the source that the NYT cites is making it up or the denial is standard denial.
I lean to believing it. If Biden is NOT comprehending that his candidacy can only be salvaged by convincing a now very skeptical public that he is “up for the job” and is toast if he cannot, then he is an idiot. He is no idiot.
I believe he likely is up for the job. And a circumstance that a strong supporter like me is having to say only that I believe that, not that I know it, is not enough. Assuming he is up for the job, I don’t know if he can convince the ones who need to confidently believe that over the course of the cycle.
If he has no clear path to getting the lower information voters solidly convinced then he should step down. I don’t know what odds Harris will have, but it would at least be chance. A Biden who most do not believe is up for the job is in contrast no chance. IMHO.
Polling though? I do not believe in its predictive reliability at this point in the cycle. Up or down.
I do fear that many Democratic or moderate voters really, really, really do not want a female President. (Some may say they’d be okay with it, but they’re really NOT okay with it.)
However, in the present emergency I’d count on three things:
- It really IS an emergency, and even some of those nervous-about-female-candidates folks recognize that.
- Harris could choose a VP who would capture imaginations so powerfully that the nervous voters would go with it–a man with name recognition and a reputation for dynamic vitality. So, no–not Tim Kaine or Adam Schiff, respectable and valuable public servants though they are.
- IF Biden did what truly would be best for the country–resign NOW–those nervous voters would get to experience a few weeks of a female President before the convention. At the convention, the race could be open (not a coronation of Kamala) … BUT the nervous voters would have had those weeks to realize that the situation of having a female President is not as intolerable as they secretly have believed it to be.
Back to the NYT article: It’s good if Biden is aware of the problem. I remain mystified as to why, six days after the debacle, he and his staff have made no effort to hold the unscripted events that are the only thing with the potential to show that 6/27 was “just one night”.
Press conferences and town halls–C-SPAN would gladly cover both, no matter how spur-of-the-moment they might be. If Joe is able to communicate with the voting public in an energetic and vigorous way–not simply read off a teleprompter–then he’d actually be doing something to deal with the disastrous perceptions out there.
Nate Silver has an opinion piece in the NY Times today (gift link) that demonstrates that Biden is severely underperforming Senate Dem candidates in swing states. Now, to be clear, this does not necessarily mean that a different candidate would definitely be doing better, but it is at least indicative of that. As Silver says:
The data is remarkably consistent. There are five presidential swing states that also have highly competitive Senate races this year: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (Sorry, Florida and Ohio don’t count as swing states anymore — and Texas isn’t one quite yet.) In those states, there have been 47 nonpartisan surveys conducted since Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump emerged as their parties’ clear nominees in March.
In 46 of the 47 polls, the Democratic Senate candidate polled better than Mr. Biden. He and the Senate candidate performed equally well in one poll. Which means that Mr. Biden didn’t outpoll the Senate candidate in any of the surveys. (I’m using the versions of the polls among likely voters, and the version with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included if the pollster made one available.)
None of the 47 polls — not a single one of them — showed the Democratic candidate trailing in the Senate race, though two showed a tie. In contrast, Mr. Biden led in only seven of the surveys, was tied with Mr. Trump in two and trailed in the other 38.
It’s Mr. Biden who is the problem.
And then there’s this, also from the Times:
Donald Trump now leads President Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, a new poll showed.
I am coming around to the idea that Biden needs to step aside for Harris. I hope he is seriously considering it and not pressing forward with blinders on.
Which can’t happen because they are both from California.
I recall reading that there’s an issue in Ohio and if he can be replaced on their ballot. Regardless, a contested convention would be wild.
Well, I hope while he’s “considering dropping out,” he’s also considering this:
(I hate using Newsweek as a cite because they’ve turned to shit in the past few years, but it was this or a Fox article. And that’s worse.)
I think we can be sure the Heritage Foundation will sue. That’s going to build sweet, sweet delay into what Biden can or can’t do. And with this SCOTUS, what do you think the ultimate ruling will be?
Certainly, if Biden is truly not able to be replaced on ballots in swing states, then that’s a dealbreaker. But at the same time, the fact that The Heritage Foundation is already actively mobilizing against such a change tells you just how much they fear a replacement.
I’ve seen one other person here talking about this. But haven’t received an answer to this question: What standing would the Heritage Foundation have to sue?
That he can’t be replaced is nuts. He has not been offered nor has he formally accepted the nomination yet.
Or it could be a rope-a-dope. “We’re going to force you to take second best, which will dampen your enthusiasm to vote for Joe Biden!”
No, because his immunity doesn’t apply to changing laws, especially when they are in the Constitution itself. Also note that there is no requirement that they have to be from different states; only that, if they are, then the electors from that state cannot vote for both of them. However, this could still be a problem; the 2024 election, for the first time since 1916, had the winner needing California’s electoral votes, so if they didn’t vote for the VP candidate, then nobody would have had a majority, and the Senate would have chosen the VP.
Whatever standing the currently corrupt SCOTUS concocts for them to have. Do you doubt it?
The same state business is never going to factor into running mate selection. If someone wants a fellow state resident as his running mate, all that is needed is for one of them to rent an apartment and change state of residence.
Sadly, this is a non-ridiculous point. I fully agree that this SCOTUS has nothing resembling scruples, or indeed shame.
Still, it would be a hell of a stretch.
Yes, it could be. I tend to shy away from that kind of 3-D chess analysis. It’s more likely than not that THF is looking at the disastrous debate, the fallout, and Biden’s dropping poll numbers and thinking: “That’s the guy we want to face.”
But anything’s possible.
It doesn’t even matter. Just by delaying the proceeding, even if they ultimately rule the Heritage Foundation has no standing, the process will slow nominating someone else until… too late.