He’s not (IMO) to frail to do the job. He’s too frail to win the election though. He didn’t have “one bad debate.” He has looked terrible at every function other than the State of the Union for about a year. Really, really terrible. I saw him giving a speech a few days ago and thought “he looks pretty good, that’s better.” Then I saw that it was from 2020.
Merely being tied or slightly ahead of Trump won’t do. Four years ago, Biden maintained a lead of 8% or more in the polls over Trump throughout summer 2020, yet came shockingly close to defeat on Election Night.
The recent rebound may be good news but he may not be out of the danger zone until or unless he can get to a lead of 9% or more over Trump, and it’s very questionable if he can. In fact, IIRC, there has been no point in this election in which he polled that far ahead.
Pssst. Joe!
God told me it’s time for you to quit the race.
I wouldn’t bet on it but yes I think it’s possible. I think public perception sometimes lags especially during a recovery. I think it’s too late for a dramatic reversal but the election is still close and at least so far the biden afe stuff hasn’t dramatically changed the dynamic and the election is still close according to polling.
Exactly this. In terms of polling, the worst thing that can happen – the absolute worst – is just what’s happening now: Biden trailing, but not badly enough to build the necessary resolve to replace him.
I read an article suggesting Biden support went down with men and up with women since the debate. I suspect Court decisions have confounded the cause if it is real and sustained.
I have spent over twelve years as a hospitalist, have seen many patients with subjective cognitive impairments and all stages of dementia and administered many MOCA and MMSE screening tests. It would be impossible to say that Biden has any cognitive difficulties based only on the debate. His answers generally made sense, anyone would he flustered by Trump’s stream of confabulation, and he sometimes stutters. However, it would not be hard to make a presumptive diagnosis for Trump.
However, Biden absolutely looked frail and sleepy when not talking. No one wants to see a weak president, though this is better than a dangerous one. What matters, of course, is what Biden is like at other times and what he will be like in the next few years. And the same is more true of his opponent. But voter perceptions also matter a lot.
Biden was already in a challenging position. This has been made worse. Few media articles have covered Trump’s answers in detail, lambasted him for not answering questions, and called out Biden for exaggerating when he said “Trump was screaming into his microphone during the debate”. There is a double standard, because journalists can report on Biden now. It is a disaster since the Dems were weakly unified, time is short, and alternatives are often suboptimal. I don’t blame Biden, who has had some successes and decades of public service. His son is a distraction. Biden has associates that don’t seem to be skilled at reading the room, however. It will be a challenge to convince independent voters he has the chops to go until 2028. I hope he can do so.
More of the same. (Limited giftlink.)
It didnt move the needle at all.
As Nikole Hannah-Jones put it: “As media we consistently proclaim that we are just reporting the news when in fact we are driving it. What we cover, how we cover it, determines often what Americans think is important and how they perceive these issues yet we keep pretending it’s not so.” They are not reporting that he is a loser; they are making him one.
Yep. trump is more newsworthy than Biden- Biden is responsible, sedate, you can expect what he will do. He doesnt make headlines.
Of course, after trump wins and he gathers up most of the Liberal media and sends them to concentration camps, they may regret this.
That would have been a good thing for God to say, about last January. But time for any change has passed. The Democratic ticket will be Biden/Harris. All speculations are just that. The time has passed and I think we have been ill-served by the people in the administration who knew this a year ago.
Even God doesnt want trump to win. If He wanted trump to lose, He has lost of lighting bolts, and trump golfs in Florida- hint hint.
Does God decide who rules? The bible seems to say so, but God is punishing us then.
If you accept the idea of an omnipotent God who cares about humanity, it logically follows that God decides (even if that’s by choosing not to interfere).
The alternatives are that there is no God, that God is not omnipotent, that God doesn’t particularly care… pick your favourite.
I don’t think a loving God would have brought us Trump, though.
It did for me and anyone I’ve talked to. It showed him to be weak under pressure. In four years he’ll be 85. I’m guessing he’s going to get progressively worse, not better.
The problem is people compare things to their expectations. Trump was awful but no one expected much else. People expected Biden to be engaged, vibrant and passionate. Whether he was that is up to your view.
The problem is that people are mixing the two comparisons, Biden vs Trump || Biden vs desired D presidentital candidate.
- Biden to one’s expectation of a presidential candidate: Biden is coming up short.
- Trump to one’s expectation of a presidential candidate: totally unacceptable unless you are committed to more right-wing judges at all costs, are a proto- or actual fascist, are a total idiot, or have other deep flaws.
- Biden to Trump: Biden comes out ahead.
The trouble is, among people who only sometimes vote (or only sometimes vote D), people who agree with both #1 & #3 may well just stay home.
Harping on the obvious truth of #3 isn’t enough to win the election.
So you won’t vote for Biden vs Trump? If you still would, then it didn’t “move the needle”.
I live in a solid Democratic state and I’m not going to vote for Biden because (1) It’s going to be decided in the Electoral College anyway, and (2) I have more respect for myself than to vote for that man.
538 showed Biden led Trump by 9.6 percent, in the rolling polling average, on July 7, 2020. Today, July 7, 2024, Biden trails by 2.3 percent. So — Biden is running about 11 points behind where he needs to be even to have a 50-50 chance of winning.
It’s only close if the GOP electoral college advantage, and the so-called shy Trumper effect, have disappeared. And that’s so unlikely.
There are two reasons why Biden is coming under increasing pressure, from his own party, to drop out and/or retire. One is political. The other is patriotic — we need a mentally supple President. The fact that more Democrats are pressuring Biden to drop out, and few Republicans are pressuring Trump, says something good about the Democrats.
P.S. The shy Trumper idea has come under legitimate criticism. Trump supporters are not shy. But experience from 2016 and 2020 shows that Trump supporters disproportionately dislike answering the telephone.
Were you going to vote for Biden earlier but changed your mind?
Full transparency: I haven’t voted for anyone for president in the general election since 2012 and don’t anticipate voting for either candidate this year.