And if enough people think like you Biden wins. We don’t know if there aren’t.
I did NOT say “it is a fact that Biden won’t win”
I said I don’t think (as in believe; hold the opinion) he can win.
If anything there seems to be an incumbency disadvantage?
I don’t think any of France, the UK, or South Africa (to just go with three that popped right into my head) were as much votes specific oppositions, as they were against the incumbents.
There is I suspect some desire to turn a page.
And, in the ‘Holy Fucking Shit’ department, the Washington Post: “Former president Barack Obama has told allies in recent days that President Biden’s path to victory has greatly diminished and he thinks the president needs to seriously consider the viability of his candidacy, according to multiple people briefed on his thinking.”
I think it’s inevitable now. Biden just has to optimize the timing.
So let it be written, so let it be done.
Indeed. It’s gonna be about timing, for both Biden and Harris. She’s gonna have to vet a number of running mates pretty quickly. Also develop a message, branding, put together a campaign team she feels comfortable with, etc I can’t help but think her team is already getting ducks in a row, even if it’s completely hidden from most people in DC.
I didn’t say he was nine or ten points behind Trump. I said he was nine or ten points behind where he must be to overcome the GOP Electoral College advantage.
(As was true in 2020, too. In July 2020, Biden was about nine points ahead of Trump, yet won by very little margin, due to that EC advantage the GOP enjoys.)
(I have about 130 posts to catch up with but wanted to answer this before I lost track of it. It all may be moot at this point as the news seems to indicate that Biden may indeed be coming to the point of being willing to step aside.)
If all those wanting him to step down agree on a replacement (Harris, I hope), we have a chance. If not, if a bunch of hats suddenly start flying into the ring, then we are definitely up shit creek.
It’s just a guess that Biden needs 9 or ten points to win. We don’t know that. According to some models, he’s a few points behind victory, and according to 538, he’s a coin flip or slightly ahead. And most importantly, there’s no evidence so far anyone else is significantly more likely to win.
You can feel strongly about your guess, but it’s still just a guess.
I happen to agree, by the way – I think Harris would be stronger. But it’s just a guess. There’s no real data to support it.
If your race is a coin flip when running up against a convicted felon rapist who tried to overthrow the government less than four years ago and who promises to be a dictator once elected, shit’s bad.
Yeah it is equally true that we shouldn’t assume the polling is pro Trump as it is Pro-Biden. There probably is a couple point EC advantage for Trump, so I would put Biden at 4-5 points down at this point.
The more this shit continues, the less bad I will feel if I decide to vacate the premises.
Yes, and it’s a good thing that Presidents are never in denial about their health and successions go smoothly according to the Constiutution.
Yes. This is one reason why I think a Harris + centrist VP pick could change the story dramatically. Biden is historically unpopular, but of course so is Trump. A centrist-leaning Dem ticket could pick up enough votes from anti-Trump moderates and independents (and even some Republicans) to make the difference.
Even if true (and this claim lacks support), how would it explain the consistent pattern in battleground states of Democratic Senate candidates doing substantially better than Joe Biden?
“Polls favoring Republicans” would not result in what we see here. (my bolding in that quote.)
Of course, even if there is almost unanimous support for Harris, the Republicans will immediately release a shitstorm of bad PR making her look like a female clone of Adolph Hitler. There is no doubt whatsoever that they have the anti-Harris campaign ready to go.
I’m very late to this thread (as I always am, as Dope threads race on beyond my ability to stay engaged) but I don’t think I’ve seen my thoughts expressed yet so I will expound.
- Biden wasn’t my choice in 2020 but I think he’s done an extraordinary job as president. I wish he hadn’t chosen to run again but think it’s way too late to second-guess him now. I don’t think he’s senile or otherwise mentally incapacitated. He’s old and gets tired. He has a stutter. Compared to the alternative and most 81-year-olds, considering his workload I find him very impressive.
- I agree with everyone saying the Democrats have perfected the circular firing squad, and the media circus buy-in is disgusting. This has been a horror show of the first water. I’m truly saddened and disillusioned by by so many people and their behavior.
- If Biden decides of his own accord to step down at this very late date, Kamala Harris HAS to be the candidate. For one thing, isn’t she the only one who can legally inherit his campaign war chest? Practically speaking, that’s a huge deal. Otherwise, the only way any candidate will have enough money is if the huge-money donors get together and simply anoint someone and that is guaranteed to lose millions of voters.
- Also, passing over the VP–who obviously is out-of-the gate the most qualified to do the job right now–for a what, an open contest for no good reason four months prior to the election itself when we could have had a real primary last year? What the actual hell? What kind of message does that send to the voters? Oops! We have a woman of color who accidentally is close to a position of power so naaah, we have to try again.
- And while I’m at it, this whole suggestion of Biden (as opposed to a different candidate) causing the Democrats to lose downballot races is condescending and insulting. It’s as though the talking heads can’t imagine voters might have any other reason to go to the polls–it’s not like there’s nothing else at stake this year. Clearly they consider the voters little more than brainless lemmings.
- Last point: I don’t understand why everyone is so caught up in polls. They are purely for entertainment value. Has everyone forgotten the summer and fall of 2016?
OK, sorry. Everything I’ve said has probably been said upthread but I had to get it off my chest. Thanks. 
But here’s the thing: I think this could work out to what amounts to two convention bumps for the Dems. One when she’s announced (new and shiny!) and one after the convention (which I would think would draw stellar ratings). Yeah, sure the pubs will trash her, but they will be going against new, young and female with old, felon and loser
Well there you go. That along with the information in this article from the NYT (gift link) makes me think we will know by Monday what Joe will do.
I am sad it has come to this and especially annoyed with all the supposed admirers of Biden and what he has accomplished who have worked so hard to diminish his abilities and portray him as a doddering old man who is verging on some type of cognitive issue when there is no evidence for it. But if this is what has to happen to prevent DJT from getting reelected then so be it. I still feel this would have been better it if happened back in January.
If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well
It were done quickly
I agree with this. It’s our best hope. It makes sense, but who knows.