Biggest NFL Draft Bust of 2014 Predictions

Rumors are that Carr is rising and among the top 3 QBs on some team’s draft boards. He’s going to bust. He feels pressure that isn’t there, which is a tragic flaw in QBs that almost never gets corrected. His mechanics even not under pressure are pretty bad, but when he starts flinching and running from phantom pressure his mechanics are awful.

I’m still trying to figure out what’s up with Bridgewater. He was considered the top QB prospect at the beginning of the year, had a great year, was considered the top QB prospect for the first few months of the whacky season then he throws a few wobblers at a pro day and he’s a 2nd round pick. I’m not even sure if the pro day was related, it seemed like the media coverage on him was starting to doubt him earlier than that.

I really wonder how much of the reporting and mock drafts and all of the stuff surrounding this part of the season is just arbitrary and made up. How close is the reporting of draft gurus and their mocks to the actual movement going on in the draft boards of actual teams? Those guys all start to repeat each other, and suddenly you have an echo chamber about certain players that doesn’t actually reflect the way real teams feel about them.

I used to dig really deep in the draft and watch a lot of guys myself, but I’m just not motivated to do that anymore. I do like what I know about Bridgewater though - he’s smart, can run an NFL style offense, makes quick reads and decisions, is accurate, can throw guys open, good pocket presence, good under pressure. Underweight but doesn’t look small, weak, or frail. He’s not a once in a decade sort of prospect by a long shot, but he’s worthy of being drafted high and will probably be fairly successful. I think Matt Ryan is somewhere near what he’ll be in the NFL - which isn’t hitting a home run, but I’d take it.

His bust status. Definitely.

Incidentally, everyone seems to think Bortles is going to be a top 10 pick, and yet when they describe all his attributes and accomplishments, his status as a prospect seems to only be defined by the fact that he’s around 6’4 235.

Colin Cowherd pointed out Bridgewater’s damp sponge performance on John Gruden’s QB Club show or whatever it’s called. I’m guessing that word has gotten out to the draftniks that Bridgewater hasn’t interviewed well in whatever meetings he had with teams so far.

Manziel will charm his way into getting picked higher than Teddy B. Personally, I don’t know what to think of these QBs anymore.

As for the Manziel/Wilson talk, Russell Wilson is a fine, efficient QB. But he’s not exactly someone who carries a team on his back. If Jacksonville had ended up with him, I don’t think he’d be so well regarded. So should a team like Jacksonville want a player like Manziel at the top of round 1?

I honestly have no idea how the Browns should approach this draft, and I won’t be able to shit talk whatever they end up doing.

Bridgewater’s competition wasn’t overwhelming either. To me “damp sponge”= “quick learner/soaks in information”. YMMV obviously.

You’re probably right about Russell Wilson in the sense that he probably won’t go down as the next Joe Montana or Horse Face (John Elway) or Dan Marino but he’s smart, he’s well-grounded, he “plays within himself,” he has a great deal of confidence, and he generally doesn’t make the mistakes that are gonna kill your team. Right now I wouldn’t trade him for anybody else in the league.

Which is why I don’t get the Manziel/Wilson comparison at all. If anyone, it’s Bridgewater who is more like Wilson. Manziel is much more like a Michael Vick, an athletic playmaker who is great to watch, not so great to root for, and who will ultimately disappoint.

Manziel is way too poor a passer for me, and I wouldn’t take him at the top of the first round at all. But he has huge upside, and if you’re a desperate team and you have no problem putting all your eggs in one basket, you can draft him, build a new offense around him that will fit his strengths and limit his weaknesses, and hope for the best. He’s a huge risk, but if you have a couple very good receivers who can go up and get poorly thrown balls that are up for grabs like Mike Evans can, then he might be fun to watch for awhile. At least until he gets hurt, his ego alienates everyone, or he makes too many stupid ass throws.

Please tell me this is a bit of homertastic hyperbole, because if you’d rather Wilson over Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Watt, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, or the slew of way more talented, successful players, then you’re simply not paying attention to football.

In terms of running ability, I’d say Manziel is closer to Wilson than Bridgewater is.

This is probably right. I just don’t think Manziel will be able to reliably squirm out of the reach of pass rushers to make plays. You just can’t go shotgun spread and freelance all the time in the National Football League.

Unorthodox and terrifying, but are you sure he’s a poor passer? I saw him make a lot of really difficult throws. A lot of throws you wouldn’t necessarily want him to attempt, but really, really good throws with touch and intelligence behind them.

He’s the SEC’s all-time leader in completion percentage; can you believe that? And it’s not like he was dinking and dunking.

Wilson is definitely more athletic than Bridgewater, but as far as playing the QB position, I’d say he’s got a ton more in common with Bridgewater than Manziel. Both Bridgewater and Wilson look to throw first, which Manziel doesn’t. Bridgewater and Wilson are both relatively accurate, game managers who can run an offense while limiting mistakes, which isn’t exactly Manziel’s forte either.

I think some team will be desperate enough to give him a shot running a wider open offense, which could make sense if you grab a backup QB with the same skill set as Manziel.

It’s that “wouldn’t necessarily want him to attempt” caveat that makes me so leery of him in the NFL. Whereas he can get by with scrambling for a while and throwing it up for Mike Evans to go get it in college, I don’t think he’ll have that luxury in the NFL, at least not enough to make it worth the cost. Unless I’m sure he can read a defense or be able to find his 3rd progression, I’d have major concerns about his style of play.

He’s not a bad passer, he’s got a pretty good arm and some passes do show he has some touch. But, to me, he’s just stupider than a box of rocks and relies way too much on his athleticism and escapability than running an offense. He’s capable of making nice passes, but he’s equally as capable of making dumb ass decisions, or letting his sloppy mechanics make his throws wobble.

I watched his tape from the Alabama game this year, and he threw two dumb interceptions, and could have easily had a couple more. He missed open receivers, and looked like he threw into coverage way too often. I saw the same in the Arkansas and Mizzou games.

Going only by the three cut up games I watched of his, he did have a lot of quick passes to his first option (I think mostly to get him in a rhythm. Then he would have his “scramble for 6 seconds and heave it” passes that are nice in college, but may not work in the NFL. What I didn’t see a lot of (although there were times when he did it) were him sitting in the pocket, reading a defense, and throwing to his second or third option.

He’s clearly talented, and has the physical tools to be a very good quarterback, but I think his style of play and the mess that is between his ears will stop him from ever being worth a top 10 pick in the NFL. I think, at best, he’ll be Michael Vick.

Some “homerism” in there? A little bit probably, yeah. But quarterback is the most important position in the NFL and having a solid head on one’s shoulders goes a LONG way towards determining what kind of quarterback you’ll be (having some athletic ability outside of just being able to throw the ball and having a GREAT work ethic doesn’t hurt, either). He’s just finished his second year and he’s already won a Super Bowl, something that no other quarterback in the Seahawks’ history had been able to deliver (granted a GREAT DEAL of the Seahawks’ success against the Orange ‘n’ Blue Fairies back in February was due to their great “D”). He also seems like a great kid (his divorce from his wife after only a couple of years is a bit of a disappointment) who seems to genuinely care about others both on his team and in the community. After all the “horror stories” we’ve all heard about professional athletes he seems like a true “breath of fresh air.” Is he better than those other quarterbacks you mentioned? I suppose that’s up for debate, but he’s OUR guy and I like him and so I’m sticking by what I posted earlier whether you think I’m being a “homer” or not!

It most definitely is not up for debate. He is not, in any way, shape, or form, a better QB than Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees.

I love Russell Wilson. I think much like you, that he’s a good guy, a good QB, he’s dedicated, works hard, and is more interested in winning than padding his stats.

But there is no way in hell he is more important to his team than dozens of other players. If you wouldn’t take Aaron Rodgers, JJ Watt, Drew Brees, or a plethora of other guys in trade for Russell Wilson, you’d be Millen-esque in your GM abilities.

I honestly don’t see how you can say that. In only his second year he’s helped the team win a Super Bowl. He now has just as many Super Bowl rings as Peyton “Golden Boy” Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers and more Super Bowl rings than J.J. Watt or Adrian Petersen. I honestly don’t know why you’re being such a jerk about this. And really, if you knew me better than through a few posts online you would KNOW that I’m just about the LAST person who can rightly be accused of being a “homer” when it comes to sports!! If you think I’M a “homer” then you’d REALLY love to see stuff from people I know who really are!! A couple of examples: One guy I work with insisted that the Seahawks would beat New Orleans at LEAST as badly in the playoffs this last season as they did in the regular season match-up. I urged caution with that thinking. That same person thought that the Seahawks would blow the Orange ‘n’ Blue Fairies out of MetLife Stadium. I predicted a final score of 27 - 23 (okay, he was closer to being right on that one. Thankfully!) He and a friend of mine are both probably thinking that the Seahawks will now go and win the next 10 Super Bowls while I am reveling in the one they got this year. Your accusations about me are comPLETEly misplaced and I stand behind my assertion whether you like it or not.

Somehow I knew the Super Bowl Ring Argument would rear its head sooner or later. I don’t even have the energy for this one.

Doug Baldwin is now better than Calvin Johnson. Trent Dilfer is better than Dan Marino. Robert Turbin is now better than Barry Sanders. This kind of “logic” complete escapes me.

Add in racepug’s apparent need to call the Broncos “Fairies” and his persecution complex, I fear this is an argument that is simply not worth it. I think I’ll have to settle with my very controversial stance that Russell Wilson isn’t the best/most valuable player in the NFL.

Yeah, yeah, I’ve heard it all before. In fact, I’ve made the same argument myself many a time. But I think it’s a little unfair for you and the guy (I assume it’s a guy) going by “Hamlet” to dismiss Russell Wilson the way you do. Not sure what your basis is for doing that. I mean, this last season was only his second one in the NFL. All those other guys you mention have been in the league for over a decade. The fact that you’re dismissing him so quickly as not being “in the same league” as the likes of Golden Boy Manning or Drew Brees indicates to me that YOU TWO are the ones who are being narrow-minded about this, not me. Like it or not.

And yeah, “Hamlet” - it’s NOT worth your time because as far as I’m concerned you’ve shown yourself to no longer be worth mine.

Show me one place in this thread where that’s happened.

Wilson hasn’t been dismissed. Your original claim was that there was not a player you’d rather have. Other posters disagreed with this assessment. The followup was that he doesn’t have the stats or the same relative value to his team as other players. That’s hardly controversial. Nor is the idea that a Super Bowl ring isn’t the end-all, be-all of important football statistics.

That is in no way or shape “dismissive” at all, except to an uber-homer.

At any rate, this tangent is not only bizarre but besides the point. I’m guessing Manziel will be a bust (and praying the Texans don’t give into fan pressure - not that they have in the past). He’s got the physical tools, but so did a lot of college QBs. What I haven’t seen at all from him on (or off) the field is good decision making, emotional maturity, or the patience to wait for the pass rather than take off at the slightest hint of defensive pressure.