Manziel might be the most polarizing prospect in quite a while. Tebow may have gotten more attention over his extreme religiosity, but very few people thought Tebow would be a great NFL player, so predictions of his pro football career weren’t nearly as split. It was a shock that he went in the first round, and most people thought he was clearly a bust.
Manziel was generally projected to go higher. A lot more people seem to think that he’s the best QB in the draft, and that he has the skills to make it as a pro. But a lot of people think it’s obvious that he’s going to fail, with the same degree of certainty.
I have no idea what to make of him, but he’s now my QB of the future, so I’d like to hear opinions. I think Kyle Shannahan is a good OC to develop him, since he’s more flexible with developing his system to fit the player, and he’s designed somewhat unique offenses for mobile QBs. Based on some casual highlight watching, I think Manziel has really good vision as a runner and can zip the ball well when he gets a chance to throw, but you have to play in a more structured way in the NFL and I don’t know if he can cut it.
He sounds like he’s not retarded based on a few interviews, but I have no idea what his work ethic is like, if he’ll put in enough effort for the huge transition in front of him.
Oh, and herp derp it’s Cleveland therefore he’ll suck etc etc.
I won’t say it’s impossible he’ll live up to his reputation but I feel it’s unlikely. He shows every sign of having a very high opinion of his abilities. And people like that usually end up falling short. I think the reason is they’re so confident in their superiority, they aren’t willing to put in the amount of effort that’s needed to raise themselves up to the higher level of the pros.
I don’t care how good you are in college - no player ever entered the NFL ready to play at that level. In the NFL, you’re surrounded by players who were all the best player on every high school and college team they ever played on. So players that have always relied on being the best player on the field now have to learn how to play among their equals. And a lot of them can learn that new game.
The college players who succeed in the NFL are those who are willing to admit they’re starting out as an average player at the pro level and are willing to work at rising to that new level.
Based of the history of ‘exciting’ dual threat QBs, Put me down for;
Moderate personal life embarrassing bullshit,(ie no rapes, just bong picture level).
Promising first Half of the first year. Weaker second half of first season as DCs get meaningful tape.
Major struggles 2nd year, rumors of benching, pouting, '“is he really injured, or just benched for being ineffective”,complete collapse by the end of that year.
I don’t know why he rates his own thread, outside of the hype, but here goes:
He’ll be exciting, which will make people forget that he’s not very good at running a NFL offense. The Browns will tailor the offense around him, getting him on the move/ not making him make tough reads. That way, he’ll have a moderately successful beginning to his career, but as teams get tape on him and as he gets dinged up a bit, he’ll regress to being a talented running QB, but an average passer at best. He’ll make more than his fair share of mistakes and won’t make any WR on his team better ala Favre/Brady/Rodgers/Brees, but if he has talented people to throw to, he’ll do OK. Some games he’ll be a world beater, and some games (usually against better defenses), he’ll kill the Browns’ chances of winning. I don’t think he’ll lead the Browns to a Super Bowl, but maybe a playoff win or two. If he can stay healthy (I don’t think he will), he’ll max out as a top 15 passer rating QB with an ability to run, but will never be considered an elite QB.
I think a combination of injuries and his inability/stubbornness in learning the traditional NFL passing offenses will ultimately limit his upside and the Browns’ success. But fans and his supporters will talk endlessly about that great 4th Quarter comeback he led or that amazing time he made 4 guys miss and threw the bomb to Gordon for a TD, and they’ll be fine with him. For awhile at least. He’ll have a minor, embarrassing something happen to him in the off season at least once in his career, but won’t flame out over it.
Maybe he just needs a bit of coaching. Maybe he has a great work ethic, the desire to learn/execute an NFL offense, or maybe he’s so transcendent that he won’t need to. Maybe he’ll stay healthy too. Maybe he’ll be the next Fran Tarkington. I just don’t see it happening in today’s NFL.
He’s a pretty unusual prospect. He does generate a lot of hype, but that’s also a way of saying that he has a lot of national attention. He’s a controversial, divisive figure. He’s an interesting potential dichotomy of college/NFL success. Much like Tebow, except that most people seem to acknowledge that he’s a better passer and has a better chance to be an NFL star than Tebow. No harm in creating a thread about it, since I thought it might engender some discussion. And as a Browns fan, I truly don’t know what to think - whether to be filled with excitement or dread, and I want to be more informed.
I generally don’t advocate that QBs need to sit their first year, but I think this may be a case where he should at least sit half the season. I’d like to see what Brian Hoyer could do - he could probably competently manage an offense, perhaps even a bit more. He was a breath of fresh air last year when he played. He started the team 3-2 and the team actually seemed to be excited to play for him. It was actually really remarkable - when Weeden came in, the rest of the team just gave up. You could see their spirits instantly broken. I think Hoyer, despite being a career journeyman, may surprise. He has a few of my favorite traits in a QB - he gets the ball out faster than anyone in the NFL and throws to a spot/throws his receivers open. I’m not sure that’s especially suited to a Shanahan offense, but I’d like to see him start at least the first half of the season and go from there.
But the pressure to replace him, even if he does pretty well, will be immense. I don’t know if they’re seriously considering letting him start, and if there will be a real QB competition.
Also, I’m hearing the national buzz and local buzz on various sports talk outlets is very positive. I expected a lot of “haha, Cleveland sucks” type of stuff, but the general tone is supportive. People are excited to see Manziel, think it may return the Browns to some sort of national prominence, and there’s a lot of people wishing us well. I guess it’s a lovable loser sort of thing, but I’m still pretty surprised at how positive the reaction seems to be.
It’s a bit generic, but the effect of coaching can’t be overlooked. Manziel isn’t the type of QB who’s going to do well no matter where he ends up (so he should be grateful he didn’t end up in Jacksonville).
He’s got a new head coach, which can be a problem in itself. Kyle Shanahan’s the OC in his first season. That’s not necessarily bad, and he did good work with RG3, but Manziel is a bit less polished and the team surrounding RG3 was better in Washington. Dowell Logains in the QBs coach. That’s not encouraging. The repeated changes in the front office and coaching staff can definitely be a problem, no matter who they draft.
The best thing that might happen is the coaching staff gels, the ownership stops interfering, Manziel sits at least a good portion of the season, and the fan base remains patient, no matter if Hoyer isn’t as exciting.
Otherwise, tough sledding. This situation is designed to chew QBs up, even if they could have been good elsewhere. And it’s far from certain Manziel would be successful even if he had been drafted by a more stable and successful team.
What makes you say Washington was better? Josh Gordon is by far better than anything Washington had and can fill the Mike Evans role for him. Jordan Cameron is a better outlet TE than anything he had in Washington. And Cleveland’s offensive line has 2 pro bowlers and offers much better protection than what Washington could.
People think the Browns are devoid of talent. They’ve got quite a bit of talent - they’ve been a textbook case in having a team crushed by awful QB play.
But RG3’s first year in 2012? I’m not comparing the crapfest that is Washington today with Cleveland today but what would be the first year for both QBs.
The focus on the players is kind of my point, anyway. The talent only takes you so far. Some stability in coaching and the GM is vital to the good teams, and that’s suspect in Cleveland.
As you note, Cleveland has some good talent. Despite the 4-12 record, Chudzinski did some good work there but got canned anyway. That’s no healthy environment for any QB, much less one that may have maturity issues.
Maybe it’s the bitter old man in me, but I don’t think he is. He’s extremely talented to be sure, but not a whole lot different than Newton, or RGIII, or Vick, or Kaepernick. He’s a run first QB with a nice arm, and a bunch of questions. What separates him is that he played in Texas and he’s white.
He’s a very, very good college quarterback, but he’s not so incredibly special that he’s going to re-create the NFL. Maybe I’m just Manziel-ed out from all the coverage his smug little face gets, but he’s not a special little snowflake, no matter the amount of “it” factor the talking heads tell me he has.
That doesn’t seem like a Patriots sort of scouting report, not enough numbers or analytics. Maybe one of Lombardi’s reports before he came to the Patriots.
It’s a good thing he can run, because in spite of the “beast” reputation the offensive line has it’s not really that good. Also, he’s playing for the worst team in a power defense division, so he can expect to get hit really hard really often.
Now, you might say that it’s just one season, but it’s his first season. Guys like David Carr got leveled so much in their first season they never recovered. And that can’t happen, because he’s already seen as the franchise quarterback, the guy they all wanted. He has a lot of expectations, and he will be booed unmercifully if he follows the footsteps of his predecessors, something eminently possible.
Last, he has a reputation as a headcase. Of all the people in the draft, he is the one with the highest probability of going full Ryan Leaf. Can he keep his head while Cleveland goes through its umpteenth rebuild with a totally new staff, or will it be Hoyer Time again in a few years?
Two things are helping the national opinion of the Browns:
First, how they got him. They pulled off a really impressive set of maneuvers to land a top corner, an extra 1st Round pick, and Manziel. If they had just picked him at #4 there would be more reach descriptions.
Second, Manziel is exciting to watch. Good or bad, you know he’s going to be unusual and will hit the highlight reels. If it were an ordinary pocket passer, people wouldn’t pay as much attention.