More importantly than the strawmen he’s built, I don’t understand why I get quotation marks around my screen-name. Does racepug think I’m actually holding myself out as the Prince of Denmark?
I personally don’t care if you are, as long as you don’t start talking to skulls. That’s kind of creepy.
Alas, poor “Great Antibob”.
Russell Wilson is great, and I can understand wanting a very young and promising QB who has played very well over an older QB like Manning or Brees. Seattle has a good chance of at least a decade or more of great QB play, while Denver and New Orleans probably only have a few more years before having to find someone else.
But Wilson is not as good as, and certainly not better than, Manning, Brees, or the other mentioned. It’s possible he will be someday, but it’s way, way too early to say so.
For the record, I’d trade away Adrian Petersen, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady for Russell Wilson. Wilson has a lot more years left in him than those guys. But for next year? Absolutely not - only Minnesota *might *be marginally improved by making that trade for one year.
racepug: No one is attacking you in this thread. No one is being a jerk. Calm down, and put the persecution complex away.
I’m gonna say Anthony Barr from UCLA, projected right around 10-12, I think he has too little experience and I am worried about his strength at the linebacker position.
I’m catching this thread a bit late but I’m sure it comes as no surprise that I have opinions!!!
Apologies in advance for not reading the thread first, I’m sure I’m going to be echoing others on a lot of these. Here’s my list of guys that REEK of bust.
Teddy Bridgewater
I wasn’t fired up about him during the season and I remember asking a Louisville alum friend of mine what all the hype was about because I didn’t see it. Now, with what we’ve seen at the various workouts and off the field, I wouldn’t spend a pick higher than a 4th rounder on him and I’d still view it as a gamble.
Johnny Manziel
He’s got a better shot than Bridgewater, but he’s not Russell Wilson. Maybe he develops in 3 years, but he developed way too many bad habits.
Blake Bortles
I only include him because he’s going to go so high. The QB position is so weak this draft that Bortles is probably a top ten pick. Maybe he can develop into a Tannehill type in time, I think he has the closest thing to NFL tools, but he’s going to get all used up on a bad team.
Calvin Pryor
He’s one of my nightmare Bears picks. Hate the way he plays, doesn’t cover well and doesn’t use his arms when he “tackles”. Not fast, not big, not good.
Timmy Jernigan
Chapter 2 of my Bears first round nightmare. I watched a lot of cut-ups of this guy when he was being Mocked to the Bears and I really didn’t get it. He practically looked undraftable to me. I’m sure that’s not the case, but for a DT in the middle of things he seemed to really find ways to disappear. Commentators all say he “dominated” in the championship game…if that’s domination, I must need a new dictionary.
Taylor Lewan
Looks like Gabe Carimi 2.0.
Odell Beckham
Small, weak, drops balls, can’t get off the press, runs iffy routes…what exactly did he do besides play in the SEC?
There are other guys that I’'m not entirely sold on, but these guys are “don’t want on my team at any pick” players.
Speaking of LSU receivers – as a massive LSU fan who has watched nearly every LSU football game for the last 16 years, I will go on record with the following prediction: Jarvis Landry will have a better NFL career than Odell Beckham.
Jeremy Hill is my favorite running back in this class, I think he could be a steal for whoever lands him.
Can anyone actually point out what the problems are with Teddy Bridgewater rather than just declaring him a second day pick?
I, for one, am not sold on the idea he’s a second day pick. From what I’ve seen, he’s like the other top end QBs in this year’s draft - pretty good but there’s some warning signs.
The valid knocks (as opposed to “intangibles”) are that his arm isn’t the strongest around and he probably needs to pack on a few pounds to take NFL level beatings from defensive ends. He also didn’t have the most impressive pro day, but I don’t know how much that affects NFL scouts. It certainly influences the opinions of sports media and fans, though, which led to his “draft stock” - whatever that means to all the people who don’t actually draft players - to fall.
While there’s room for improvement, the limited arm strength means he may also not have as much upside as a Blake Bortles, who has a massive arm but significant questions about decision making and accuracy, both of which can be taught, in theory, but usually don’t improve for many QBs in practice. That said, people said the same thing about Tom Brady (needs more weight, limited arm strength), and we all know what happened with him with the right team and circumstances.
Also, he’s not much of a runner. So, if a team wants one of these new QBs who can run and throw, he’s probably not their guy. That alone may have him slip relative to the other QBs, but I don’t see how that sends him into the second day.
As usual, the hype machine is at work. I’m guessing some team takes him possibly ahead of Bortles and Manziel, depending on whether teams want a threat to run. That doesn’t mean he won’t be a bust, but this year’s QB class is iffier than some. Of course, I’m probably wrong, and some team may take Bortles as the first QB of the draft because of his massive arm. If Al Davis were still around, that would also be a certainty.
You could easily make an argument that all the top QBs could end up busts. We’ll just have to see.
I think the knock on Bridgewater is really easy to articulate: there’s not a lot of evidence out there that he can make great throws. Wilson is a decent comparison – small, quick, very smooth on the move and good touch on his throws – but Russell Wilson made really impressive, hard throws on a pretty regular basis. I’ve never seen Bridgewater make a throw where I said fuck me, what a throw, even when they were taking apart a very good Florida defense in the only really marquee matchup he played in.
That’s why the pro day matters. You get to see the limits of his pure passing ability. As I recall, Russell Wilson hit every single throw he made at his pro day, so if you were the type who thought he was really impressive during games, you could point to that and feel like it was justified, and if you were the type who hadn’t been impressed up until that point, you had a reason to think maybe there was more to him. After Bridgewater came out and missed throws at his pro day, now the throws we never saw him make in games we’ve never seen him make at all. If he turns out to have a great arm, he’s Aaron Rodgers. If he doesn’t, he’s Alex Smith. You make your best guess.
I disagree with a lot of your names on your list in general, but if the second half of that Auburn game wasn’t an example of a (mostly) two-gapping interior lineman dominating, then we don’t need the word anymore. He’s not Suh or Aaron Donald in terms of quickness off the snap and getting in the backfield, so I’d be worried about the passing game, for sure, but I don’t think that’s the only kind of domination. That offense was supposed to be blowing the interior line off the ball (watch them against NFL talent vs. Alabama), so just dropping anchor and not getting pushed was a win for Jernigan, and he ended up with nine tackles, which is a pretty high bar for invisibility.
I can’t disagree with this more.
Bad Pro Days: Drew Brees (who holds the record as the most accurate NFL QB ever) and Tom Brady, plus lots of not very good QBs
Good Pro Days: JaMarcus Russell, Aaron Rodgers, Tim Tebow, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, plus lots of very good to very bad QBs.
Good QBs have had bad pro days and bad QBs have had good pro days. Unless a QB is completely unable to throw the ball at all, I don’t know what it tells you. Worse, the throws aren’t in game situations. Tim Tebow had a great Pro Day and showed a much improved delivery. But when he played in live games, he reverted to his old form almost instantly.
You can point to a good pro day for a successful QB and feel justified after the fact. But that’s just confirmation bias. What about a bad QB and an awesome pro day? I’m sure the Jaguars would like to go back in time and revise their estimation of Blaine Gabbert, despite his excellent pro day.
That’s why I’m not sure how safe it is for NFL scouts use the Pro Days to evaluate. It’s obvious why fans and sports media look at it - we don’t generally have access to game tape. But like the Combine, it’s just one more data point to consider and giving too much credence to it can throw off your judgment very easily. It’s easy to fall into a confirmation bias mode.
I was talking about Bridgewater’s pro day.
This has been a very interesting pre-draft period. I can’t remember the last time a QB (or anyone for that matter) has gone from the number one over all pick to out of the first day in mock drafts.
That just goes to show that people really can’t judge QB’s very well at all.
One of the things that has been interesting is watching the rise of Tom Savage, QB of Pitt. This guy wasn’t even mentioned when the first rollout of names for QB’s were listed, and he wasn’t one of the top 6 QB’s on anyone’s boards. Now, some people have him possibly going in the late first round or early second. He turned down an invite to go to NYC for the draft (a good move IMO).
This is a guy who has all the tools… And there is an article on NFL.com that states he has the strongest arm in the draft. He’s 6’4", and he does have a cannon, but Pitt was his 3rd school in 4 years.
I would venture to say that outside of Pitt fans, very few people had Savage on their radar. I was hoping that the Steelers would sign him as an UFA after the draft, because they often do that with Pitt players. Now, it looks like they hype machine has him going on day 1 or 2 at the latest. At the beginning of the pre-draft cycle, I figured he would be lucky to be drafted at all, and would not get taken any higher than 5th round if he was lucky and someone really loved him.
Bridgewater has to be saying “WTF” right about now. I was never high on him, but many people were/are… To see him fall in the eyes of many is really shocking to me.
It also might be bullshit that teams are floating out there to depress his value and allow a team with a lower first round pick to maybe get a shot at him, too. Who knows…
How about fans of Rutgers (where he received national recognition) or Arizona?
Actually, that is very few people.
Before anyone points it out to me, the article I linked to just talks about his strong arm and rise up the draft board. But it doesn’t mention him being invited to NYC or being drafted in the second round.
His turn down to the draft was on the Pitt twitter account, and he appeared in some talking head’s mock draft in the second round.
I figured some Rutgers people would know him, but Arizona? Probably a blip on the radar.
Sorry for forgetting you…
Since the 49ers are in the market for cornerbacks, I’ve scouted many on DraftBreakdown. I don’t care for Ohio St’s Bradley Roby. He impressed at times, but it just seemed like he was getting beat all the time, and then getting obviously frustrated.
I’ve also watched far too much tape on wide receivers (there’s a billion this draft). I thought Mike Evans was “just big,” but I’ve turned around on him, I’d be happy if the 49ers unexpectedly traded up for him. The guy who really is “just big” is Kelvin Benjamin. In three or four games I saw him do what you want elite receivers to do maybe twice, and often looked lost.
I’m a Rutgers grad and I remember Savage being a promising true freshman. I was never sure why he couldn’t (or didn’t) win the job back. The guy that took his job was mediocre at best. I assumed he was in Schiano’s doghouse and never got out. Bad luck about Rodriguez (at least his system) taking over at ASU. Bouncing around like that screws up your development. He’s an intriguing later round option for a deep team with an aging but still good QB.