O.K. I withdraw the remark.
I’m the guy that hates Belichick and all that the Patriots stand for.
And I think he made the smarter call there.
Then again, I think even if he had punted, #18 would have been able to score, given 2 mins, and 2 Time Outs. But I’m an Indy Fanboy.
Belichick made the right call, and I’m enjoying all the heated press he’s getting over it. :gleefully: Maybe they’ll call for his resignation or call for him to stand down! And maybe he’ll be disgraced forever and Tom Brady will resign in support of Belichick, and then there will be a huge scandal destroying the two, and they will forever fall out of the public’s eyes. /end of Patriots’ hate. Yeah. Right.
But yeah, Bill was just doing what he’s famous for, and he made the right call there, IMHO. I may hate him for those calls but it’s his bread and butter.
I don’t think it’s arguable. Agree with the rest.
Meh. The Patriots’ defense had their chance to win the game by stopping the previous Colts drive. On that drive, the Colts went 79 yards in 6 plays, taking 1:44. Manning cut through them like a knife through hot butter. If they’d stopped the Colts, or even made them take 12 plays instead of 6, then New England would have won and we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
So when the defense failed horribly at their chance to win the game, Belichick decided to give the offense a chance to win the game. They failed too. Them’s the breaks. But the defense complaining that they weren’t given a chance to win the game is just silly. They had their chance and blew it.
Two things:
- The decision seemed to be made only after the third down attempt failed. If they were going for it the whole time, the third down play call should have been different.
- The decision seemed also to be made out of fear of Peyton Manning.
The botched use of timeouts also contributed to the ultimate loss.
Agree 100%
Not an unreasonable fear.
He eats live babies whole, you know.
Exactly. The ease with which Indy went on to score showed that it was at least a reasonable decision.
On Inside the NFL they elaborated on Belichick’s thinking. Back in 2006 in the playoffs in a similar situation, the Pats punted it away only to have Manning drive the field and send them home, preventing the Pats from winning their fourth Superbowl by easily crushing the hapless Bears. (This shot at the Bears was never said but heavily implied by the conversation. Were I a Bears fan I would have been pissed.)
Based on that, I have to back off my hardline stance criticising the decision.
You admit it’s a coin flip, and yet you accuse the people supporting the decision of misrepresenting the value of the decision. Yet it’s the advocates here who are saying something between “it was roughly break even” to “it had a moderately higher chance of winning the game”… it’s the people who are on the other side who are using the ridiculous hyperbolic terms “BIGGEST COACHING MISTAKE EVER! HIS EGO GOT IN THE WAY OF MAKING A CALL THAT WAS PLAINLY OBVIOUS TO ANYONE!”
Belichick has a history of using actual statistical analysis to affect his gameplay decisions. For instance, there have been studies on the merits of punting vs going for it on fourth down all over the field and in all sorts of game situations, and it turns out it’s better to go for it far, far more often than the average NFL coach does. Bellichick does it more than anyone else - not optimally - but way ahead of his competition. He has a history of bucking the conventional wisdom and going for what’s actually best.
But he did run those calculations. Not a million iteration simulation, but simply the sort of back of the envelope stuff we’ve been doing. “Okay, if we punt, Colts chance to score a TD Is ____. If we fail to convert, the chance is ____” - that sort of quick math is absolutely the sort of thing a coach would do in their head. That’s what they’re supposed to do.
That’s an overly simplistic view of the issue. If you actually did this, then the Giants’ gameplan would change to beat your new strategy and Eli’s numbers against the blitz would improve. The optimal solution is probably to blitz more than usual, but still drop into normal coverages frequently so that he’s unsure what’s going to happen post snap, which makes him even more liable to make a slow decision, which then helps your defense be effective against him.
No, people are bringing up examples of where this risky strategy has worked but there was no great outcry as proof that the people who are making hyperbolic attacks on this decision are using results-oriented thinking.
If Bellichick goes for it on Sunday night and converts, what’s the media story this week? Something like “Ballsy! But understandable. You don’t want to give the ball back to Manning, so you trust your hall of fame quarterback to get the job done…”
But if it fails, then it’s OMG THE WORST DECISION EVER HOW CAN BELLICHICK NOT MAKE COACHING DECISIONS THAT MY GRANDMA COULD MAKE!??
But the decision is the same either way. You either hate the decision (in which case you should critcize it even if it works) or you like the decision or think it’s break even (in which case you should support or be indifferent to the decision even if it fails). Rational people do not have the luxury of seeing whether a gamble pays off to decide whether they liked the decision to do it in the first place.
To give you a more pure example - let’s say you offered to bet me on a coin flip. If it came up heads, I give you $20. If it comes up tails, you give me $100. Great bet for me, right? The criticism in this thread is the equivelant of having it come up heads and saying “YOU IDIOT! You lost! you made a stupid gamble!” even though it’s obvious that my decision was correct and I maximized my chances to win. That’s results oriented thinking.
Quite frankly, I hate this sort of fan backlash. NFL coaches are always too conservative for exactly this reason. They may think that going for it is the best move that gives their teams the best chance to win, but they feel like they have to cover their own ass from fan backlash from results oriented thinking. So they actually have to make decisions that give their team a poorer chance to win, in order to protect themselves from illogical fans. The irony is that if the coaches take the “safe” (which is to say conventional) route, the fans will say “well, you gotta play the percentages here…” and they don’t understand that it’s often the case that when coaches do that they aren’t playing the percentages, they’re playing to the conventional wisdom. People get upset at challenges to the status quo, and so when someone tries to break the mold and fails, we all point and laugh because the threat to our precious idea of convention and familarity was rebuked.
I’d say it wasn’t the worst call ever, in and of itself. Belichick seems to have assumed that Peyton had the same chance to score a TD wherever the Colts got the ball. With that assumption, going for it was indeed a good call. However, the way the Patriots went about going for it on 4th down (pass play on 3rd down, calling a timeout between 3rd and 4th downs) was simply horrible.
I agree that there was poor clock management and poor use of timeouts. Apparently, the last timeout was blown because the punting team started coming out on the field without being directed to do so.
I’m more upset about the poor clock management and poor use of timeouts that the 4th-and-two call, which I think was a gutsy call, but poorly executed.
I’m much more upset about the phantom pass interference call for 31 yards during the Colt’s previous drive.
And I’m apoplectic and still talking to myself at how my Patriots could manage to lose the game when leading 31-14 in the 4th quarter. :mad:
[swingers]Always split tens.
Obviously, not always.
Always.
No, you don’t always split tens.[/swingers]
(I’m not a blackjack player. Was it splitting tens or eights they were arguing over?)
I don’t believe in the validity of those studies. For one, they aren’t based on actual game situations, but instead on the assumption that whatever happens in the 2nd quarter of a tie game will hold tru at the end of the fourth quarter with the game on the line.
Sportscenter showed the stats from the past few seasons on drives that started at or after the fourth quarter two minute warning by a team who was trailing. From your opponents 30 or better, teams score a TD 40% of the time. From your own 30, the percentage nosedives down to 3%.
This is just dripping with “I’m NOT a poindexter!” derision.
Some of these studies are generic like you say, but there are plenty that aren’t. The Advanced NFL Stats guy has based his entire model on specific game situations. He often talks about the difference between early game situations, where you just want to maximize your expected points, and late games, where the specific situation is more important.
I didn’t see this, so I don’t know the exact stat they’re using, but if they’re really using all drives from after the two-minute warning then it’s basically useless for analyzing the Belichick decision. Such a stat would include all the drives which start with essentially no time on the clock, such as the Pats drive in this game after the Colts scored with 13 seconds left.
Is there any place where the stats experts who analyzed this decision showed their work? An alleged expert who says “I analyzed this and the answer is such and such” just doesn’t impress me much anymore.
One would assume it also includes drives like the Jaguars vs Jets when they were down by <3, killed the clock on the 1 and kicked the game-winning FG. No TD = fail?
Much like zamboniracer, unless they show their work I put about as much stock in the expert analysis as I do the Sportscenter factoids.
EDIT: I’d be more than happy to verify any analysis and do my own original analysis if I had the data. Without access to the data, it’s hard to buy into what they’re selling. With the crappy new NFL.com design the only option is gamebooks. I can crawl them easily enough to download them all as pdfs, but I am not aware of how to rip the data out of the pdfs to put into a database. I believe they have gamebooks for every game in the 2000s, though, and my mouth waters at the prospect of all that yummy data. Anyone know how to rip data out of pdfs?
I tried, but I got all sorts of tiny pieces of paper, and then someone opened the window. :eek:
Just came across The Onion’s take on this: Patriots Lead Colts At Halftime