Brasil 2014

Here are the possible point distributions for four-team groups:

9 6 3 0
9 6 1 1
9 4 4 0
9 4 3 1
9 4 2 1
9 3 3 3
9 2 2 2
7 7 3 0
7 7 1 1
7 6 4 0
7 6 3 1
7 6 2 1
7 5 4 0
7 5 3 1
7 5 2 1
7 4 4 1
7 4 3 3
7 4 3 2
7 4 3 1
7 4 2 2
7 3 2 2
6 6 6 0
6 6 4 1
6 6 3 3
6 5 4 1
6 5 2 2
6 4 4 3
6 4 4 2
5 5 5 0
5 5 4 1
5 5 3 2
5 5 3 1
5 5 2 2
5 4 4 3
5 4 4 2
5 4 3 2
5 3 3 2
4 4 4 4
4 4 4 3
3 3 3 3

Some of these are no longer possible in this tournament, e.g. 3 3 3 3, which requires all games in a group to be drawn.
It is possible to qualify from a group with only two points, if one team wins all its games and the other three games are drawn, which could still happen in Argentina’s and Belgium’s groups.
There are also a few ways to qualify with only three points.

Nitpick: Newton Heath.

Nice one, very interesting. In particular, it seems surprising that it is possible to not qualify on 5 or even 6 points, but both of these only have one possible permutation. You can’t even say that two wins guarantees qualification, as the 6 6 6 0 permutation involves everyone beating one team, with the other three teams all beating each other. I’m pretty sure that neither the 5 5 5 0 nor the 6 6 6 0 scenarios have ever occurred in World Cups (or Euros), so historically 5 points have always been enough.

Group D in the 1994 World cup:

Where Argentina won their first two games, but ended 3rd in the group behind Nigeria and Bulgaria. No points for Greece (might well be the same this year).

Group F in the same world cup:

Netherlands and Saudi Arabia progress; Belgium doesn’t with the same number of points and Morocco got nothin.

And Group E in the same World Cup had everyone finishing on 4 points.

With you on Nigeria/Iran. There were two microseconds of action interspersed among 95 minutes of snooze. I really hope that wasn’t the first match any casual fan watched, or they’ll probably never watch again.

I actually think Mexico/Brazil was the best game of the tournament so far. The antithesis of the other nil-nil draw.

I like Ghana’s goal against the US for goal of the tournament-so-far.

Van Persie’s goal was spectacular but I marked it down a little for degree of difficulty; he was completely unmarked and it looked a bit harder than it really was (if you watch carefully you’ll see he doesn’t leave his feet until after he heads the ball.)

The US and Russia are both most likely to advance as second place teams. The US’s most likely second round opponent is Belgium, which is a dicier prospect. Although not quite as bad as Russia likely getting Germany.

Here is a list of the number of times each combination of points has actually occurred, since 1994 (when international football introduced 3 points for a win), and taking into account both men’s and women’s versions of the following tournaments:

  • World Cups
  • European Championships
  • Olympic Games

9630 - 14 times
7540 - 12
9611 - 10
9440 - 6
9421 - 6
7730 - 6
7640 - 6
6443 - 6
5541 - 6
7441 - 5
9431 - 4
7531 - 4
7521 - 4
6660 - 4
6633 - 4
7631 - 3
7433 - 3
7621 - 2
6641 - 2
6541 - 2
6442 - 2
5443 - 2
7422 - 1
7322 - 1
5550 - 1
5532 - 1
5531 - 1
5432 - 1
4444 - 1

You can tell I’m male because I find this

A) Dull
B) Interesting & Important

at the same time.

All three matches tonight are going to be awesome as I have a work thing (minigolf!) and hence will be away from the TV.

Same with me. I spent significant time already this morning studying this list.

The discussion about various group permutations brings me to something I was wondering about the other day.

Back in Euro 2004, the joke was that the Greeks were trying to become the first team to win a major international tournament without scoring a goal. Just a joke, of course, but it got me to wondering if such a feat is even possible, excluding goals scored in penalty shoot outs.

So the scenario I came up with was that in the group stage, all the games end in 0-0 draws. That leaves the four teams level on three points, same GD, same goals for and against, and the same head-to-head record. Lots are drawn. Our hypothetical team advances to the knockout stages, where every game ends 0-0 after 120 minutes and they advance via PKs, eventually winning the final in that manner.

Any flaws in this?

Other than the implausibility of any team which plays 120 minutes in every knockout round having the energy to keep nine clean sheets?

No. It’s theoretically possible.

What a match thus far. Two goals in 2 minutes. What a cup.

Look Australia, when you go behind to a far superior team you’re supposed to collapse, OK?

(although they’ve started much better in this game)

Two nice goals in less than a minute. Come on Aussies!

Two of the best goals in this world cup within 90 seconds, that’s value for you!

Is it just me or is Cahill’s goal more aesthetically pleasing because it hammers down and up off the bar?

I agree. Also because it was more unexpected–when it’s 3 on 1 you expect a team to be able to knock it in barring a spectacular save.

Cahill’s first goal in this game is easily top 3 goal so far.

Someone apparently forgot to tell Australia that they’re hopelessly outmatched here.

Well, crap. Cahill is out against Spain.

I need some rooting interests and us former colonies got to stick together.

A stupid foul and probably worth a card, yes, but it couldn’t have hurt that much, could it?