I like your question Chronos with how it’s more central than my own. I’ve read that the USA is really committed to Israel with pacts and other agreements. At least other countries are allies too. I believe Egypt and Jordan are currently allied too but am not sure about that.
I’m seeing reports that US Navy ships fired at least a dozen interceptors at the Iranian missiles.
I keep seeing reports saying that most of the missiles were intercepted yet the videos that have been posted show large numbers of them appearing to strike unimpeded. One shows around fifteen hitting in relatively close proximity and one (maybe) being hit by air defense. Granted many, of the vids might be the same attack from different angles but not all of them. Could Israel be lying about the effectiveness of their defenses? If so, it can’t work for long as more reports and video come in from places that were hit.
For the short-range, low altitude rockets that can be defended against and destroyed by the Iron Dome system, no attempt is made to intercept incoming missiles which are going to fall on open, non-populated areas. The alert sirens which warn civilians to take cover immediately are designed to cover spcific areas, about 2 miles square, which includes a margin of safety. But I think the Iron Dome is much more precise,
I don’t know how precise the trajectory of long-range ,very high altitude, missiles from Iran can be calculated, but it seems to have worked very well. However many missiles were allowed through the defences, there was minimal damage.
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Good video from Reuters, via CNN:
Is it possible that what you saw was debris from a missile intercepted in the air falling to the ground ? That was the impression I got from the videos I saw online.
Israel is attacking Tehran tonight.
Israel’s military says that, “like every other sovereign country in the world, the State of Israel has the right and the duty to respond”, due to “the regime in Iran and its proxies in the region… relentlessly attacking Israel” since 7 October 2023.
I haven’t been able to find anything about the targets?
News reports over the several days included signaling by Iran that they would not respond back unless certain levels of targets were hit (e.g. leadership or essential infrastructure like nuclear plants).
Not asking for discussion in this forum, but any news reports what was hit and if the value is low enough to allow stepping back from would be appreciated.
From that same BBC report:
A news agency close to the Revolutionary Guards says that some military bases in the west and south west of the Iranian capital have been targeted.
The extent of the attacks and the precise targets are not yet clear.
The Syrian state news agency says that Israeli air strikes have also targeted some military sites in central and southern areas of Syria.
Iran has a real dilemma at this point. If they try to retaliate, there is a good chance that Israel will just flatten the place. Iran’s military is no match for any developed country at this point. Also, they risk igniting a major conflict in the region with the usual proxy actors getting into the action.
I can’t find much about the targets. I thought I read the IRGC headquarters was targeted, as well as missile silos and missile manufacturing facilities. But I’m not sure what else. I believe Israel did 3 waves of strikes.
I like how Israel keeps sending Iran signs that they can strike deep in their territory without consequences. The two airstrikes they’ve done deep in Iranian territory this year, but also the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran.
You may be assuming that Iran wants to retaliate, possibly massively, rather than de-escalate. You don’t always escalate no matter what.
Dedicated thread for the Retaliation is here:
It’s anybody’s guess in that part of the world.
I’m sort of reminded of the schoolyard bully who acts all tough and causes all sorts of trouble until someone punches them once, and then they break down crying.
“We won’t retaliate as long as you don’t hit us too hard” can’t be good for Iran’s standing on the international stage, nor for the standing of the politicians who said it.
Short of nukes Israel can’t “flatten the place”. It’s much too large, and Israel isn’t equipped for WWII levels of bombing anyway.
Personally I suspect they want Israel to continue bombing them, being attacked by outsiders is great for bolstering support for a government.
It was shorthand for destroying Iran’s capability to wage war in an effective fashion.
I’m kinda expecting that despite the US urging Israel not to, Israel plans to wipe out the Iranian nuclear facilities. They don’t need a gazillion bombs to do that, and they wouldn’t need to kill many people, either.