Ohh, good way of avoiding answering my question. But to answer yours:
Not really. I’m just capable of looking a few steps further down the road instead of being very short-termist.
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Or more likely, cling to power, cave to the DUP and abandon the country to a hard Brexit.
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Until there’s a general election, which will be sooner rather than later, at which point the new government (of whichever stripe) can go back to the EU and say, can we talk about a Brexit deal some more please?
There is some evidence that a majority in NI would approve of remaining in the customs union, though. So the required consent might well be forthcoming.
The DUP have undue influence here, not just because of the current parliamentary arithmetic in Westminster, but because the quaintly crapulous British electoral system delivered them a majority of Northern Ireland’s Westminster seats despite the fact that they only got 36% of the vote. A substantial majority of the voters cast votes for parties that either oppose Brexit or prefer a much softer Brexit than the DUP trying to bring about.
Does the DUP WANT to return to a hard border?
No. They want (in effect) a no-impact border with the Republic. And they want no border of any kind with GB. Border-wise, they want what they’ve got now, in other words.
The various ways in which they could have that are:
(a) Brexit gets called off.
(b) Brexit proceeds on the basis that the UK participates in the the European Economic Area/European Customs Union.
(c) Brexit proceeds on the basis that the UK does not participate in the EEA/CU, but the whole of the UK (and not just NI) keeps its trade and regulatory regime sufficiently aligned with the EU to make open borders pretty much on the current model a viable proposition.
The DUP would not favour option (a), since they are a pro-Brexit party. However their manifesto commitments and their rhetoric generally suggest that, by and large, they could live with (b) or (c). The dealbreaker for them is any arrangement which creates barriers/impediments to trade between NI and GB.
I didn’t ask you a question.
hang on, I’m the one that’s looking far enough ahead to see the possibility of a deal actually being done. I don’t buy the narrative that everything is impossibly complicated and each group is so entrenched in its position that progress is impossible.
The Irish border was an intractable problem right up until yesterday when it wasn’t, but then it was, but then it wasn’t again. I expect that pattern to continue until compromise has been reached just as it has in all of the negotiations so far.
The DUP will be fully aware that they risk a lot here. Imagine if they cause the government to fall and hand the reins of power to Jeremy Corbyn. The future of Northern Ireland in the hands of a long-time supporter of a unified Ireland.
You clearly haven’t read what I said then. This may be a solution for the next five minutes to turn a corner on Brexit, but it’s a ‘solution’ that creates ten times as many problems.
I haven’t even mentioned that. I asked you what you think would be the likely reaction of Scotland, and London, and other Remain-predominant areas of England. If Northern Ireland gets it, why can’t they? And where does that leave the UK as an entity?
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I’m not cheerleading for any particular solution at all. Whatever the proposed approach if it causes too many problems then it’ll be discarded as an idea and some other compromise will be agreed.
seeing as neither you, nor I, nor any journalist or news source knows exactly what “it” is. there is no point in speculating or scaremongering.
Judging by his responses to the Urgent Question in the Commons right now neither does David Davis.
Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, has now publicly stated that there should be no hard border in NI and no disruption to the UK internal market and that if regulatory alignment is required, it should apply to the whole UK.
David Davis, speaking to Parliament, appears to be agreeing. This is looking like a win for the DUP. But the Hard Brexit Tory faction will not countenance any plan that amounts to taking EU regulations by fax. Davis is working quite hard to explain that “regulatory alignment” is different from this, by floating the notion that you can achieve the same regulatory result without having the same regulations. (E.g the EU will have one regulation on how many micrograms per kilo of abamectin is permissible in food for human consumption and the UK will have another, completely different and utterly independent regulation which will, by an odd co-incidence, specify the exact number of micrograms per kilo as the EU regulation does.)
The extent to which all parties involved can make themselves believe this is the extent to which a fudge is going to hold the talks together till March. The question I haven’t seen raised, and which will put the cat firmly back among the pigeons, is “Who decides whether regulations are sufficiently aligned?”. Can Ireland/the EU unilaterally declare this is so? Will they accept the UK’s say so? Or should there be some sort of supra-national body with the power to force the UK to change its regulations?
NB - in Oct 16 Theresa May set out “red lines” for Brexit in her conference speech. These red lines were repeated in the Lancaster House speech where she laid out her negotiating objectives. These included: that Britain would not be a member of the Single Market; and that Britain would not take regulations from the EU. Everything since then has proceeded on that basis.
If we really are now considering “regulatory alignment” as a our desired goal, it means erasing those red lines almost entirely and taking up a completely new position. The DUP appear to have forced a fundamental policy reversal with a phonecall, and in less than 24 hours to boot.
Wow - who saw that sort of thing happening? We are all completely surprised that something like this has happened as a result of May’s deal with the DUP. No one could have possibly predicted it.
Who indeed? But the circumstances are spectacular:
The UK, EU and Ireland negotiate a deal, including specific language on “regulatory alignment” that they can all agree with. The UK commits to this language.
They all let it be known a deal has been reached, brief journalists and arrange a set-piece “negotiating lunch” and press conference between May and Junker for Monday.
On Monday morning, the UK shares the language its agreed with the DUP for the first time.
The DUP hit the roof. Foster calls a press conference denouncing the language as unacceptable. She calls May, interrupting her “negotiating lunch” with Junker. May goes back into the room with Junker and tells him she can’t deliver her end and the deal is off. The press conference is perfunctory.
What the actual. How in the name of all that is holy were the DUP only shown the critical language of the deal with hours to go? Who decided they didn’t really need to be involved? Does anyone on the UK side have any kind of grip on what they are doing?
Double-post.
I reckon they’ll go for alignment for whole UK now, wait for a future time when the Tories have a majority, and then amputate Northern Ireland.
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Oh, and this: Nicola Sturgeon calls for 'special' Brexit deals - BBC News is precisely what I was afraid of.
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It is hilarious how bad the UK government are handing all of this. A total embarrassing balls up. The deal with the DUP was always going to be like this. In the attempt to hold onto power May has reversed herself continually and also shackled herself to the biggest shower of regressive fundamentalist fuckwits on the two islands.
Brexit has been a total fuckup from the beginning when there was no plan or idea how to actually achieve the pie in the sky dreams they were touting. Now they are trying to appear to know what they are dong but are really showing how clueless and horrible the decision was in the first place.
Yes. It’s quite instructive to compare Brexit with what’s going on in Ireland right now with the debate on repealing the 8th Amendment (which prohibits abortion in almost all circumstances). What initially looked like the Irish government again kicking the can down the road by setting up an Oireachtas committee to hear evidence and make recommendations, is now looking like a very wise way to prepare the country for a referendum anchored by solid and informed proposals.
F**k me, that’s twice in this thread I’ve praised the Irish government … Brexit really is having an impact over here already 
BTW, this Irish Times column on how badly Britain is coming out of this compared to Ireland is worth bookmarking and hoping they take the paywall down from it soon.
I doubt that. The corner they’ve painted themselves into makes the former impossible now, without depending on Labour votes to get it through parliament; and if eventually they manage to get a workable majority again, the chances are that it will increase, rather than decrease, the influence of the post-Powellite fringe within the Tories.