On the other hand, they can’t go for anything less than they have already put on the table with the EU because the EU, obviously, will not accept it.
So either they get the DUP to back down and accept special treatment for NI, and good luck with that, or they extend the special treatment to the whole of the UK (which requires May successfully to assert her authority over the hard brexiters in her own party) or . . . well, that’s it, really.
Open letter by moderates in Tories imploring May not to let Ultras dictate terms. Unless a miracle happens this government could fall soon.
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The moderates track record is of talking a good game but lining up quietly when it’s time to vote. The question is whether the Ultras are any more likely to carry out their threats. Mainly, they haven’t been called to. But we’ve had one abortive leadership challenge already which could have been more so they have been known to blink.
If a Tory faction bring down the government, Labour get in. No one knows what that means for SM/CU membership, least of all Labour. So even if the Ultras put “Hard Brexit” ahead of Tory victory, it’s still a big gamble. Their ideal must be to somehow get May to stand aside for an annointed successor. But the chances of getting away with that without having to call an election are slim at best. Will they have the nerve to push over that first domino?
Boris won’t. Davis likewise has an unflattering mouth/trousers ratio. Gove might, especially if he gets chatting to Cummings any time soon. Rees-Mogg, I think, would rather be talked about as the next leader than actually do anything as common as actually lead. If May had the strength of will to call their bluff, my bet is they’d fold.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson?
Maybe Ruth Davidson?
God forbid, he is a buffoon but in world that elected Silvio Berlusconi and Trump I don’t think anything is impossible.
She’s seemed pretty impressive whenever I’ve heard her talk, she has a leadership aura about her
Another area of fallout from the DUP deal that could IN NO WAY have been predicted. Who knew that if you give one party special deals the others would all want one too? Inconceivable!
And yet another nominee for the “Whodathunkit?” awards: David Davis admits that there were no Brexit impact studies despite him previous claiming that his department was carrying out “57 sets of analyses” on various sectors (a familiar number for those of us who remember the original *Manchurian Candidate *film). He will likely escape formal censure for his little white lie, but not scorn and contempt.
A recent study discusses how the number of Leavers believing the UK will get a “good Brexit deal” has fallen to 28%, and 51% of Leavers think the UK government is handling the negotiations badly. Note that this hasn’t changed much their opinion on Brexit itself.
You and the Americans could trade. Trump for PM and Johnson for President. I mean you guys need someone who can make the “bestest, yuuugest deals”, and the Americans wet themselves whenever they hear a British accent.
She is more responsible for May remaining PM than anyone. Can you imagine a Tory Gov staying power because of Scottish votes.
Well he was born in America and up until recently he had joint American and British Citizenship so one of those trades is possible.
I have to say though, as buffoonish as he is, he remains head and shoulders above Trump both intellectually and politically. We mention them in the same breath only because we imagine he is the closest thing we have to the clown that is Trump but unfortunately the antics of the day-glo shitgibbon has meant that the crazyometer is in serious need of recalibration.
Towards the lower end we have the likes of Obama, Merkel, John Major, Cameron, etc. Then slightly above them we have Blair, Bush1 and Brown, Then probably Thatcher, Reagan, Bush2 and Gorbachev about a quarter of the way up. Boris just slightly ahead of those, Berlusconi is pushing the 50% mark and then Trump pegs the needle against the retaining pin in the red zone at the end and causes the whole gauge to bulge and steam ominously.
This really deserves a thread in itself. For months this excuse for a human has been reassuring us that his team were carrying out 57 assessments, that they were “excruciatingly detailed”, that they analysed the impact of Brexit on different sectors, that summaries had been read by the PM, that they contained information so sensitive they could not be published.
You might think, from listening to him, that 57 highly detailed impact assessments had been prepared, using sensitive data that was not in the public domain, and that these were sufficiently advanced that summaries had been prepared for the highest level. What a fool you would have been. There are no “impact assessments”. There are, apparently “sectoral analyses” which a) have clearly been scraped together at the last moment, b) don’t contain much analysis and c) rely wholly on public domain info.
He basically made these analyses up, got caught lying and tried to write his book review on the bus to school. And amazingly, he doesn’t even appear to be ashamed.
But that’s not the worst thing we’ve heard about Cabinet preparations for Brexit. According to Philip Hammond, the Cabinet has not, to date, discussed what end-state they want to achieve after Brexit. It has, after all, only been 18 months since the referendum, and nine since A50 notification.
The Cabinet - the government - the negotiating team - do not know what they want to achieve as a result of the negotiations. It has not, till now, been a priority to thrash this out.
Holy fuck.
If I managed a project here at work like that I’d be out on my arse quick smart and 100% deserve it.
In our experience, that means it’s Johnson.
It’s when you see what she actually does that you realise the aura is entirely illusory.
So a breakthrough has been made. UK will maintain full regulatory alignment with the EU, no hard border in Ireland, and EU citizen rights are fully maintained.
So, once again, complete capitulation by the UK. We’re going to get laws by fax.
How exactly is this taking back control?
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The “no hard border” and “maintaining citizens rights” were stated right at the start by both parties and there are no surprises there.
There was always going to be a divorce bill and I’d lay hard money on the payment terms of that bill to be linked to the suitability of the transition period and final trade deal.
The words “full regulatory alignment” are not stated as a standalone guarantee. The context of the words are important. Here is the actual wording
Huge wiggle room there. As one would expect. Telling that people on both sides of the argument are referring to this paragraph as evidence for their own positive/negative spin (as you do). It is artfully ambiguous.
Maintaining citizens rights was not maintained by the UK government. If you remember, they planned to have EU residents transferred to a new category of foreign resident, with loss of rights from what they have now.
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So May lives to fight another day. I wonder if she’ll take the opportunity to, aah, “refresh” the ministerial team?
As a way of kicking the can down the road, that’s great. And given the time crunch on Phase 2, kicking the can down the road was the only move left. But at some point, either in Phase 2 or in the actual trade negotiations, Westminster, Stormont and Brussels will all have to come to an agreement on which rules are “those rules” that “support North-South cooperation, the all- island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement”. If they can agree on that - if the Tory party can agree amongst itself - then they will have to agree on what it means to be “fully aligned” with “those rules” and then they will have to agree a procedure for deciding whether or not the UK is “fully aligned”, as time goes by and which institution will oversee that procedure. At that point the ambiguity will crumble and the UK will have to decided whether it wants easy trade with the EU and less ability to make its own regulations, or harder trade with the EU and greater freedom to regulate. Currently, as noted, the UK doesn’t know what it wants. Nor does the Cabinet, nor does the PM.
But still. I’m pretty happy with this outcome, because I believe it can only lead to a considerably softer Brexit than recently seemed likely, which will save a lot of jobs and protect a lot of investment.
Every member of her Cabinet who has ever said “No deal is better than a bad deal” should be sacked.
They wanted an immediate end to ECJ oversight; they’re getting 8 more years.
They wanted to pay a minimal amount - or even nothing - to the EU. They’re paying £50bn.
They wanted to be unequivocally outside the Customs Union; they’re going to be in “full alignment” with “those rules”.
They wanted to be out of the Single Market; see above.
They wanted to be entirely free to make trade deals with other nations, unencumbered by CU or SM regulation; see above.
By *their *standards, this is a bad deal. If they roll over and accept it, instead of resigning on principle or launching a leadership contest, they they’re empty suits and May can safely ignore them. The same goes for all the backbench “rebels”.
That would include May herself. She said it a lot, as I recall.
“Ah, no. You misunderstand. By ‘bad deal’ we mean a deal which would have left the UK even worse off than crashing out with no deal at all. Since no deal at all would be an absolutely catastrophic outcome, this deal is really very good. Almost any deal you can conceive of is really very good, in fact.”
Good point!
“We haven’t jumped into the fire. So this frying pan is really perfect for us, all things considered.”
I’ve been spending a bit of time admiring Para 46: