California Marriage Cases - Speculation and Discussion

Turns out the California Supreme Court will be releasing its decision tomorrow in the same-sex marriage cases:

Watching the oral arguments in March, I definitely got the impression that they were at least close to a majority for ruling in favor of SSM. Kennard was definitely on board. And I can’t remember any specifics, but IIRC it seemed like Werdegar and Moreno may have been leaning in favor as well. I think the Chief Justice was considered to be on the fence by commentators, but he seemed to be making a lot of arguments from the bench in favor of SSM.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we have marriage equality in California effective tomorrow.

If anyone else has any last minute speculation, I’d like to hear it, and then when the decision comes out we can discuss it here.

God, I hope they don’t decide in favor of SSM. We’ll get it through the legislative branch soon enough, but if the courts force it on us, I don’t know what’s going to happen. And that will not be good for the Democrats come November.

n.b.: I fully support SSM, but I believe it is something that the people need to decide. We’re getting there through the legislative branch (we’d already have it if Arnold hadn’t vetoed) slowly-- first domestic partners, then we’ll have full marriage as soon as the new Democratic governor is sworn in after Arnold. I think it’s pretty likely to be a Democrat.

I’m torn on the subject. As much as I would love to see SSM legalized here I fear it could hurt us in November. Especially if the constitutional amendment to ban it makes it on the ballot.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a SSM ballot initiative passed in CA now (or an anti-SSM ballot initiative failed). Prop 22 was, IIRC, in 2000. Things have changed so much since then.

I would like to believe so as well. But there’s nothing like a court decision they don’t like to get the right up in arms.

I’m so fucking tired of walking on eggshells so we don’t upset the dinosaurs and bigots. Fuck 'em…

I don’t disagree. The problem here is that they are well on their way to getting a constitutional amendment on the ballot here in CA to stop SSM permanently. It’s a tough balancing act when you’re trying to claim your rights in the face of so many people that feel giving them to you is morally wrong and that they have a mandate from their god to stop you from getting them.

I definitely feel this, too, and the idea that it’ll happen anyway would make a loss in the court not so bad in the long run, but I also feel jayjay’s frustration.

But if the court decides for SSM, even the prospect of a hard fight through November won’t keep me from celebrating for at least tomorrow.

There’s one problem with this argument: While I fully favor granting Libertarians the same freedom of speech enjoyed by Liberals and Conservatives, I don’t think that a judge who is appointed, not elected, mandating it from the bench is appropriate. They should have the commpn decency to shut up and wait until the legislature gets around to awarding it to them.

Wouldn’t you agree?


Fortunately, the legislatures already have, by passing the First Amendment to the US Constitution.

Oh, come on. There is no way to read the 1st amendment to say Libertarians don’t have free speech. It’s in the US constitution and (I assume) the CA constitution. The people of CA have spoken w/ prop 22. The people can speak again to revoke prop 22. I think we’re ready to do that (or very soon will be).

The decision has been handed down.

Long opinion. George, Kennard, Werdegar, and Moreno are in the majority, and they struck down Prop 22. Booyah.

The court overturned the ban. This is going to get interesting…

If I’m reading this right, they are applying strict scrutiny instead of rational basis. I’ll need a lawyer to explain it fully.

From the opinion:

John, that’s a good way to put it.

Long winded, aren’t they?

Just a tad. :slight_smile: I still need a better explanation of rational basis, strict scrutiny and all that. From my understanding, they are saying that sexual orientation qualifies as a suspect classification and it seems that is a good thing.

John McCain couldn’t have asked for a better present. The anti-gay bigots are now officially mobilized for the fall.

Arnold has come out (no pun intended) against the proposed state constitutional amendment to limit marriage to a man and a woman. That should help quash that effort, I think.