Trump might have scored a few points with some moderates and independents, but I doubt it’s going to move the needle much. It’s going to come down to whose voters are more motivated to come out and vote, which is why this race will be more interesting than it should be. The problem for Republicans everywhere is that the GOP isn’t really inspiring anyone but their bedrock base of conservative voters. Even among those who voted for Trump, many just don’t like the personalities that populate the GOP, and that’s especially true of Trump. Conversely, Trumpism has given a serious jolt to the Democratic party and there is a wave of activism. Women voters will be a force over the next year or two.
Did it happen? Did Trump fill up a stadium for Saccone? :dubious:
The venue was the Atlantic Aviation hangar at Pittsburgh International Airport, so not stadium capacity, but apparently there were several thousand there and they turned people away.
The 35ish percent that support him no matter what really do support him. That’s not an insignificant number of people.
Trump had some things to say about Conor Lamb, but they weren’t always intelligible: “The people of Pittsburgh cannot be conned by this guy Lamb. You just can’t do it. Because he’s, again, he’s never going to vote for us. He can say ‘I love President Trump. I agree with everything he says.’ You know what? I don’t want to meet him.”
They do a weird thing where they filter the results through three different turnout models, but all three show Lamb with a lead from +2 to +6.
PredictIt has reacted accordingly and now has the race 60-40 Lamb.
I have a bad feeling about this. I think the added attention that this race is getting is going to wake up enough R voters at the last minute. The prospect of sweet, sweet liberal tears is a strong motivator.
A real bad feeling. Like a Leon Lett is about to score a Superbowl touchdown feeling.
Kind of a different thing in politics, isn’t it? In sports, one team is clearly ahead and the other is clearly behind. When it comes to voting, all you can do is estimate and predict, which is an inexact science to begin with.
IOW, if Lamb did lose, how would we really know why and when?
He’s talking about Leon Lett losing a touchdown in Super Bowl XXVII.
It’s a symbol of the consequences of celebrating too soon.
Christ, looking at that Beebe really hustled his ass off to make that play.
Which is just what I was talking about. We don’t even know for sure who’s really ahead right now, so how can someone blow something we don’t even know exists? What if it was blown three months ago, and we don’t even know it yet?
Some Nate Silver tweets from yesterday on the topic…
“Can Democrats Flip a House Seat in a District Trump Won?”
Find out tomorrow!
Even if the Republican wins, do y’all realize how much the GOP invested in this race? A shit-ton of door-knockers from DC plus a shit-ton of cash that the candidate himself couldn’t raise. Is this something the RNC and their Super PACs can maintain across every competitive district come fall? HA, I say, HA!
The GOP dropped $8 million dollars into this race through the weekend on TV ads alone, $15 million total! Plus the president and veep have been deployed! And Ivanka! And soon Donald Jr.! And the Democrat is still standing upright? Even if Saccone wins, I can’t see how the Republicans can muster much of a grimace out of all this.
…I just realized that this is the district one of my aunts lives in. Specifically, the one of my aunts who makes elucidator look like a right-winger. I’ll be giving her a call tonight, just to be sure…
Yup. A lot of cash for a district that basically does not exist in ten months. Win or lose neither apparently is expected to run in the 18th again. (See the 538 article.)
But while the optics of squeaking by in a district that had not been competitive in a long time, and that both Trump and Romney had won by nearly 20 (!) are bad, very bad, they are, to the general public perception, much less bad than actually losing it.
Spending to avoid that might make some sense but of course throwing that much money and Presidential clout into it and still losing, with another special election flipping to a Red stronghold to Blue? That’s humiliating.
Even if they could maintain that burn in all races that might be competitive in November one has to think donors having little to show for their largesse will result in them exerting pressure to cut bait on candidates who cannot fundraise better for themselves.
I don’t know what you’re talking about, this election is in a Democrat district.
Stay tuned for our updates on the war with Eastasia, with whom we have always been at war.
It’s apparently got a lot of Republicans who like to call themselves Democrats. I’m not sure why.
If so, I’d guess it was a holdover from the old union days, back when Democrats were more corrupt and Republicans less so.
I think the lesson here will be that all things being equal, good candidates bead bad candidates. Saccone is a terrible candidate, easy prey for Lamb to slaughter. Since PA will have new districts in the fall, the seat means a slight decrease in Ryan’s caucus with little importance. The optics are huge, and to see a district flip so far will give momentum to the blue wave.
This right here is that Leon Lett business that I’m worried about.
I don’t see the enthusiasm fading and overconfidence coming. Democratic turnout is going to be huge for this midterm.
Saccone puts his opponents into a basket of deplorables…