With TCU (me so horn frog) winning the Rose Bowl today, mid-majors are now 4-1 against BCS conferences. You can’t count the 2010 Fiesta Bowl because they pitted two mid-majors against each other. So what will the mid-major conferences (either on the field or with the NCAA) need to do for the BCS to change their system into something like:
Playoff!
Top 2 teams to the national championship game and top 6 ranked conference champions plus 2 others (highest ranking non-conference champions is what I prefer) to the 4 BCS bowls
Unfortunately, the BCS is completely safe for at least another year.
TCU did everything it could, but… they “only” won by two points, and they “only” beat a Big Ten team. The BCS defenders will continue to dismiss their accomplishments. “Who’d they beat this year? NOBODY? Wisconsin? Ha! The Big Ten was down this year. You saw what Alabama did the Michigan State, right? THAT’S what ANY Southeastern Conference school would do to ANY team in the Big Ten.”
TCU and Utah, 2 of the best mid-majors, are both moving to BCS conferences.
So the answer is no, they won’t undo the system. Personally I am glad to see the better mid-majors joining BCS conferences. Even though I hate the BCS and want a playoff, I don’t believe there is any realistic and fair system that could be put into place if the good teams are spread out among too many conferences with too little opponents in common. The best argument for a playoff would be to whittle down the number of relevant conferences until it is a no-brainer to invite all the champions to the playoff.
I realize that TCU has been in a mid-major conference for a while, but I’m sick of the media potraying TCU like some little David among Goliaths. They were long time members of the Southwest Conference and IMHO always have been a major college program.
In theory, COULD the mid-majors undo the BCS? No. Only the big schools and conferences could do that.
For example, IF Boise State and TCU had both been undefeated and had been scheduled to play each other for the national championship… THEN, the SEC and Big Ten and Big Twelve would be screaming that the BCS is a farce, and demanding a playoff.
I’m not sure where the OP gets the 4-1 figure. I see
Louisville 31 - Southern Miss 28
Air Force 14 - Georgia Tech 7
Maryland 51 - East Carolina 20
UCF 10 - Georgia 6
TCU 21 - Wisconsin 19
That makes 3-2, with four of the games being one-score affairs. I’m not sure we can call that some kind of dramatic revelation.
And this trend will continue. TCU and Utah are moving up. UCF figures to follow before long.
I think the future will be with 12-16 team superconferences. The Big 12 needs teams, so there’s room for Houston or SMU or someone to step up (really, they are idiots for not already locking down TCU). The Big 10 will always have the door open to Notre Dame.
As an opponent of a playoff, what I’d really like to see are tougher regular-season matchups. I see one really simple fix: all BCS conferences must have 10 football teams, and all BCS teams must play 9 in-conference games. That forces expansion, and one more in-conference game will make schedules a bit harder. Just a few more losses in the top 10, and the picture starts becoming clearer.
I think the easy solution to that is to have scheduling done by the NCAA (or some other body). You want to compete for an NC? Then we get to put your schedule together. Everyone gets their in-conference games and historical rivalries, but you can’t stack the deck against the bottom of your conference - it’s now tiered. Your OCC games are also tiered, and are all determined at the end of the last season, just like the NFL.
We are discussing BCS historically and not this year’s bowl games.
The Big East (with Miami) and ACC (with Florida State) and other traditional power conferences have automatic qualifiers. By getting an automatic bid, we get teams in a BCS bowl like:
Four BCS games (top 8 teams?)
1999: #15 Syracuse (Big East) lost
2000: #22 Stanford (Pac10) lost
2001: #17 Pudue (Big10) lost
2002: #13 LSU (SEC) won over #8 Illinois (Big 10)
2003: #14 Florida State (ACC) lost
2004: All were top 10 teams
2005: #13 Michigan (Big 10) lost; #21 Pittsburgh (Big East) lost
2006: #11 West Virginia (Big East) won; #22 Florida State (ACC) lost
2007 Bowls started the separate National Championship game (top 10 teams?)
2007: #14 Wake Forest (ACC) lost
2008: See below
2009: #19 Virginia Tech (ACC) won over #12 Cincinnati (Big East)
2010: All teams within the top 12
2011: #13 Virginia Tech (ACC) TBD
The record of automatic qualifiers more than 2 spaces from the top 8 (1999-2006) or top 10 (2007-present) is 2-8 with this year’s to be determined.
In addition, at large selections from BCS conferences/Notre Dame include
2001: #11 Notre Dame (Ind.) lost
2008: #13 Illinois (Big 10) lost
How does the non-automatic qualifiers record of 80% stack up against low-ranked automatic qualifiers of 20%? Does it show something is wrong with the system when ranking=eligible is immaterial for some teams yet crucial for others?
Your mistake is in thinking that the BCS is designed to create competitive matchups that showcase the best games possible each year. It’s designed to do two things - showcase ONE matchup of the best possible game, and then make a shit-ton of money with its other 4 games. Competition really has very little to do with that second part.
Ah, I see. I still think 5 games is way too little a sample size to draw any conclusions from, especially given that in those games you tend to expect the non-BCS team is much more motivated. If you put the best non-BCS teams in 2010, 2006, 2004, 2003 and 2002, against another top-10 team, do you think 4/5 they would have won?
And Munch is 100% right. Fair ain’t got nothing to do with it. If the BCS schools could get away with shutting the mid-majors out completely, they would.