That works only as long as it’s a hypothetical replacement candidate that, Schrodinger’s cat style, hasn’t resolved into an actual candidate with a name and a history. Then the criticism will be tailored to that candidate. Nothing evaporates. You merely exchange gray (old man) baggage for red (“socialist”), pink (woman), or some other shade of baggage.
Yeah, but it’s not Indiana Jones switching a priceless artifact for a weighted bag of sand. Another candidate can’t just espouse Biden’s policies and call that good enough.
Such a candidate as you propose won’t be treated as a “young Biden” or “just like Biden, but young!” An easy exercise is to first imagine switching Biden out and bringing in Kamala Harris to lead the ticket. What’s the problem? She’s young and is aligned with Biden policy-wise, right? Oh wait – there are other considerations besides age, you say? Other kinds of baggage to overcome?
So … show me this baggage-less broadly-popular Democratic candidate. With name recognition (sorry, no year-2000 Obamas), if you please.
To me, it’s been bleedingly obvious from jump that this has been all this election ever was. If you can’t abide Biden, you’d better cheerfully abide Trump with a smile on your face for all four years. No gray area for this one, sorry. 99% of the time, there’s nuance and gray, but not here.
If there were some 50-year-old Democrat who’d make the perfect replacement for Biden, that person would already be president because they would have beaten him in 2020.
One debate wont move the needle much.
Yep.
Not to mention- we can NOT simply replace Biden. It can not be done- unless Biden says he is dropping out.
a 1% difference is statistically insignificant, and within the margin of error. Biden is more or less running neck & neck with trump.
No. No. No. No, and no.
Donald Trump’s administration initiated a sustained, years-long effort to erase protections for LGBTQ people. This included an effort to “define ‘transgender’ out of existence,” erode protections for transgender students and workers, and weaken access to gender-affirming health care that most transgender people already struggled to access.
Trump's Anti-Worker Record | Communications Workers of America.
At every turn Donald Trump and his appointees have made increasing the power of corporations over working people their top priority. The list of the damage done to working people by the Trump Administration is long, and growing every day. Here are a few examples.
Trump has encouraged freeloaders, made it more difficult to enforce collective bargaining agreements, silenced workers and restricted the freedom to join unions:… Trump has restricted overtime pay, opposed wage increases, and gutted health and safety protections:
Correct.
More evidence, from this article, which has some (admittedly old) polling data regarding alternatives vs Trump, which shows Trump beating them pretty handily, and that is even before the Republican smear machine gets them in its sights.
There was one Democrat who came out ahead by 6 points vs Trump. And from reading the thread it seems to be the same one everyone in the thread has in mind for replacing Biden The problem is getting this person on the ballot in 50-states will be a bit tricky. Their name: Generic Dmocrat
Yes, she is clearly not a proxy for the US general voter. So you should ask yourself why your mind decided that, instead of answering the question, that it should assume that the other person made a ridiculous and insane assumption as the basis for their question, and that you need to spend time warding off that deeply illusory assumption, rather than answer the question?
I’d venture to guess that it’s because your mind does not want to answer the question and it’s hunting for ways to go a different direction.
Which way, in your mind, does Ilhan Omar vote? Trump or Manchin?
Probably lives in the same space as this guy:
Jill Stein.
I think the answer to the question is irrelevant. And in fact, I don’t know (and don’t even really have a hunch) that Omar would vote for Joe Manchin. Not to say she’d vote for Trump … in the confines of a voting booth, she could vote down-ticket and leave “President” unmarked.
I don’t see that your hypothetical leads anywhere. If Ilhan Omar votes for Manchin … that doesn’t support a predictive corollary.
So let’s say that the radicals on the left sit out the election. What percentage of the US population are they?
Who wins the election?
What?
First 2020 debate - 60% of respondents to the CNN poll say Biden won.
First 2016 debate - 62% of respondents to the CNN poll say Hillary Clinton won (and 57% on the CNN one said she won the 2nd debate as well).
First 2012 debate - 67% of respondents to the CNN poll thought Mitt Romney won over Barack Obama
Technically, you are correct - only one of these hit the 2/3 bar. But the broader point is that a significant “win” in the first debate, at least according to CNN polling, is hardly rare. And based on what we know about history, hardly predictive of anything about actual voter support or electoral results.
Missed the edit window but, Democrats really do love circular firing squads like nobody’s business
I think the conventional wisdom that changing horses midstream would be an embarrassment and a disaster is probably far less true in this particular situation than it normally is… because this election will be SO much a referendum on Trump himself.
Normally you would have people saying “well, I liked Biden, I knew him, but… who’s this new person? Huh… no idea. Hmm, guess I’ll vote for the known quantity of Trump or sit it out”
In this election, you might have far more people saying “phew. I never liked Biden much, he was so old. Thank god there’s someone, anyone, who I can vote for instead of Trump!”
I mean, I’m not guaranteeing that would happen. I gave up trying to actually make predictions about Trump-era politics ages ago. But I think that this is not a normal time, and not a normal election, so… who knows?
I’m a little confused by the OP. Are they asking if in the 2024 election that incumbent Biden who won the nomination based on primary votes can still be removed as the nominee either by the all-powerful DNC hierarchy or by the delegates at convention OR is the question that according to Democratic Party rules, the incumbent President (if a Democrat) must be the party’s nominee if the President so chooses regardless of the primaries?
Wasn’t he the detective in Batman: The Animated Series?
Sure.
In an economic bubble, saying this time is different is a mistake.
But there are many other situations where this time is different is true. Leukemia is a lot different today than when I was young.
Biden’s rolling polling averages, against Trump, in 2023 and 2024, have been at least five points behind where Joe was that day, four years before, every since March 2023, when there began to be enough data to check. The polling consistency is abnormal AKA different.
And I think we know why it is different. It is different because Trump and Biden are the most famous people in the world. During the inflation spurt, swing voters made up their minds about those two individuals. They didn’t make up their minds about RFK Jr, because they never heard of him. But they made up their minds about Biden and Trump.
I predict that Trump gets only a small and fleeting bounce from the debate. Then it will bounce back. For Democrats — not good enough…