Can the Democrats win the Alabama senate special election in December?

I personally didn’t need her statement. Moore’s own words on Friday were enough for me.

Ok.

I’m curious at what point Moore will drop out. If that point exists. He really seems to enjoy playing the persecution card. And his followers seemingly eat it up.

My dismal prediction is he will stick it out and end up squeaking out a close win :(. It’s Alabama. IMHO nobody opposed to him should get overly optimistic.

I’m about 65-35 thinking they aren’t bluffing about the refusal to seat him if elected.

They need all the votes they can get to pass the tax overhaul. If he wins, they’ll let him in the club.

Let’s say Moore is elected keeping the 52-48 split. 48 Dems voting to expel him leaves only 19 Republican votes needed to make 67.

Well, he has more substance than some on the right. Look at it this way:

Which would you rather have: North Korea nukes L.A., or Roy Moore goes to Congress?

Presumably there are things worse than a child molester, circumstances in which Roy Moore is logically the better choice. Extreme circumstances? Sure, but that’s what we’re talking about.

That’s the kind of argument he is making: “I don’t like child molestation at all actually, but what am I supposed to do? Vote for a liberal? Moore is accused of one thing; liberals are guilty of all things. It’s still a no-brainer.”

It is a crappy argument that seems to reduce the word “liberal” to name-calling, but maybe people really hate liberals worse than child molesters. Maybe people think this pesky Constitution is getting in the way of public 10 Commandments monuments and oppressing gays for being gay, &etc.

Many figures on the right are just dodging, which I take as having no substance at all. Easier to side with The Left of course, run Alabama and the nation guided by, oh I don’t know, math and science and precedent and justice instead of religious fundamentalism. But I don’t live there and I guess they like it the way it is.

Which gives me an evil idea of the GOP having a “Contract with Alabama.” Have 19 GOP Senators sign the contract pledging to expel Moore.

However, it is too late to get his name removed from the ballot, and we don’t want a Democrat! So, vote for Roy Moore and you have our pledge that you are not really voting for Roy Moore, but Luther Strange.

“If I vote for Moore am I voting for Moore? No. It’s Strange.” :slight_smile:

So what happens if Moore wins and the Senate expels him? The Gov of Alabama appoints the replacement and we get a GOP replacement? Or what?

The one drawback about expelling Moore is that it keeps this story dragging on. It’s not like the Senate is going to expel him 5 minutes after he’s sworn here. They’ll have to be hearings, I’m sure the Democrats would insist on that, before an expulsion vote could be taken. So, that’s a series of hearings that will likely take place in January, right after the holidays and brings the story right back into the news after the lull of the holidays
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Wait. One nuke? And not a thermo-nuke, just regular?

Not Dems. They’re certainly not going to stand up and fight to keep a pedophile in the Senate if Moore wins. At that point and for their purposes, one (R) is no different than another.

No, it’ll be the State of Alabama, led by the Bannonites, who will fight the Senate over why the expulsion decision should be allowed over the Will of the People of the Great State of Alabama™. Should keep Moore in the spotlight right through the mid-term election cycle. :slight_smile:

Moore would be very different. He would be a gift to the Dems. They could use him to tar every Republican running in 2018 and 2020.

Sessions is seriously considering a Special Counsel to investigate Clinton on basically everything under the sun (email servers, Comey’s investigation, collusion with Russians over uranium, Clinton Foundation, etc) which I’m sure is just the sort of distraction the administration is looking for. Knocks “Child molester senator” off the front page and rallies the troops into mindlessly chanting “Lock her up” instead of paying attention to what their own party is doing.

Yes, read about that. It was kind of interesting to me, actually, how Sessions handled it. No fan of Sessions I, but his pursuit seems less than fulsome. Session Looking Into Special Counsel for Clinton Issues (Reuters)

(Bolding mine.)

Not the most enthusiastic referral. Sessions is already in serious legal jeopardy. I don’t think he wants to garner any more obstruction charges than he already may face. To me, it seems more like a non-compliance compliance. Obviously I could be wrong (and often am!).

Really?

The only thing they could prove her guilty of is being an absurdly shitty campaigner.

I’m not sure how that is going to knock “Child molester senator” anywhere, much less off the front page.

Interesting snippet from a 2002 story about Moore.

“At the Etowah County Courthouse, some of those who worked with Moore roll their eyes when asked about him but keep their mouths shut. There are plenty of stories to tell, the longtime secretaries parole officials and lawyers said, but not on the record and not now, while Moore sits atop the state court system and controls its purse strings.”

Democrats don’t need to defend Moore, they can just say they want all the truth to come out and how it is important to let these women be heard.

Of course, even if the Republicans could meet such a bar, the Democrats could choose to trump them and vote against his expulsion to prevent a scheme like that from working.

One tweet I’ve seen in response: