First, Bush destroyed the Republican party-by abandoning conservatism. he spent like the worst kind of Democrat, and got us into two wars, based on faulty reasoning.
The Republican Party needs to adopt a Libertarian agenda:
-stop the abortion controversy: leave it alone!
-start dismantling the American “Empire” (overseas military bases that we can ill-afford)
-negotiate treaties with countries on the basis of mutual interest (i.e. don’t hand China our manufacturing sector for free)
-begin a REAL downsizing of government (eliminate Dept. of Education, merge Army, Navy, Airforce into ONE secretariat)
-stop being “world policeman”
-end NATO, announce to Europe that they can maintain it if they want to
Not always. But in my two examples credit was placed where it was due.
Why do we have to make such a decision? We can have capitalism that is regulated. That after all is what the government is for. To defend the overall good of the society against the powerful. Allowing capitalists to loot the system is not good for America or for the future of capitalism. Free market capitalism has become a hard sell now, due to its unfettered looting. They jeopardized the economy of the entire world. At least the thieves are wealthy enough to insulate them from the problems they caused.
I’ll not stand by and let you give Reagan credit for getting inflation under control. Credit for that feat goes to Fed chief Paul Volcker (a Carter appointee):
Significantly, Volcker is currently advising Obama.
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Nothing doing. The Repubs aren’t going to be honest about what went wrong in the past 8 years; they’re going to blame the “Liberal Media” and such. They won’t ever admit there’s anything wrong with Reaganomics, or that the far-right social conservative agenda is costing them votes, or that the Iraq war involved borderline-criminal deception of the American people. They’ll just wait until the country is prosperous enough for people to forget about the past disasters, gas is cheap again, and certain kinds of people are clamoring en masse about “keeping their capital.” Then they’ll swoop back into power again, with nothing changed.
Of course, that scenario may not occur. Gas might never be cheap again; maybe we really will have to look for alternatives to oil. Maybe then will the Repubs possibly redefine their “brand.”
Otherwise, they’ll merely change how they advertise their brand–trying to look like something other than what they are (e.g. champions of the working class)–and continue to espouse the same policies and agenda privately. And when the economy’s sound, they’ll win again and fuck everything up. Again.
Og, I hope I’m wrong. I’d love to see the Republicans adopt more Libertarian policies. But if they’re going to be wanking off to Sarah Palin for the foreseeable future, it will never happen.
It’s possible, sure. It looks like they’re going to get their asses handed to them on a national level for the second election in a row, here - Obama appears headed for a big win (at least in electoral vote terms; seven or eight percentage points isn’t a landslide but it’s not a squeaker either), taking states Democrats were supposedly unable to compete in, and the majority in the Senate and House is going to get pretty big. So you have to believe that some major conservative thinkers are going to spend some time wondering what went wrong.
What they’ll conclude, as you and everybody else have noted, is unknown. The people who just fell in love with Sarah Palin will cool off, and maybe there will be enough of them, combined with the conservatives who didn’t like her in the first place, to change the direction of the party. But some on the religious right will definitely conclude the public was cheated by the media, swamped by money and tricked by a terrorist. You’re not going to convince those people that the party has gone too far to the right. I think all of this is going to take at least a few years to sort out, ideologically, even if the GOP has a chance to take back a few seats in 2010. The GOP may spend a long time in wandering in the wilderness here.
They could only keep the Big Tent up so long. Now they will have a fight for who owns the soul as pk foreshadows. A lot of course depends on how the next 4 to 8 years (assuming an Obama win) goes. What will they have to fight against?
The conservatives who I’ve respected are more libertarian leaning and tolerant of religious differences. They are willing to get involved internationally but not eager to do so.
But they won’t rewin a Presidency without the RR behind them. The support of the RR is not a sufficient conditiion but it is a necessary one. None of the other factions are, by themselves, critical support like the RR, even if having some coalition of the other factions and/or the middle is.
The conservative repub party can not compete. They have to gather single issue groups under their umbrella to stay away from a deluge. They go for NRA ,gun types,anti abortion types, anti gay haters and small towners. None of them actually benefit from the repub policies. But they vote for them anyway. They believe that the repubs are on their side. The fact that the legislation they want is never passed does not seem to bother them. they are being used .
There are simply way too many things that could occur to really predict it.
But the Republicans are going to need a better narrative. With McCain they’re overreached on the right. I guess at some point, someone told McCain that he’d need the far-right to win this election and he shifted way to the right. By doing that he lost the middle.
Any future Republican party is going to need another person that embodies the ideals of the RR without explicitly doing so. GWB did that surprisingly well. But will the RR be satiated by this in the future?
Check out this by pandagon:
and this bit is good too…
So the question is, what will it take to get the RR to come out next time? After 8 years of Obama are they going to be happy enough to support a candidate like Bush? Bush was special because he was the first guy who was “one of them” to be President. Technically Carter was too, but they didn’t have their infrastructure set up then.
That’s what I think will determine the future of the Republican party. Will the RR be happy with another GWB? Another guy who by all means seems to be one of them, but again, he didn’t really do anything to stop the cultural change they hate so much.
I can tell you this much, the fiscal conservatives won’t be willing to accept anyone more right-wing than Bush. I’m not sure the RR will accept anyone to the left of Palin now. Maybe they’ll find a compromise candidate, but I’m not sure. Eight years out of the White House will make you a lot more pragmatic, that’s for sure.
As scary as the past eight years have been for Democrats, it’s hard to imagine how they will find another Bush or Reagan. The Republican Party depends on these types. The Primaries really showed us what happens when you don’t get a GWB or Reagan in the fray. You are simply split up between the Huckabee faction and the McCain faction. It will continue that way until they get lucky enough to get another GWB. Anyone have any ideas who that could be?
The 2010 census could help Republicans quite a bit. There’s been a significant population shift to red states since 2000, and that will result in those states having more electoral votes and more representation in Congress after the next census.
So let’s not get too cocky until we see that new map.
This election appears to show that “red states” aren’t as permanently red as everybody assumed in 2004. And Democrats will also be in a position to control redistricting in 2010.
They’ve certainly become more purple, as we see in Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia. On the other hand, that may be a function of the unique circumstances of this race: a dynamic candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket, combined with the economic meltdown.
I’d be cautious about seeing a trend in what may be an anomaly.
There are longstanding demographic trends at work in those states that predate Obama.
Agreed. I suppose a better statement of my position would be to question whether those trends are enough to tip scales in a typical election. (This election is not what I would call typical.)
For one thing, we’re getting an overwhelming black voter turnout in this election. Will that always happen?
I believe that even before Obama, Colorado had also been cited as a state that could change affiliation because of demographic shifts. A lot of people, including me, have said this looks like a realigning election, so what a “typical” election will be going forward is an open question. And if you’re a Democrat it’s one more reason to be glad Obama got the nomination, because his campaign identified these trends, and I don’t think Clinton’s did. Her strategy appeared to be based more around winning the traditional swing states - Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, maybe Michigan - which she said Obama couldn’t win, which he appears to be on the verge of doing anyway, helped no doubt by the economic crisis. Whereas his strategy was more about taking some historically Republican states, which he also appears to be about to do. They may not have changed this year if Clinton had won, but like I said I think the trends were in place.
I’ve never seen any stats about the black turnout in this election. I’m sure it will be strong and that Obama will get a larger share than the almost-90% Gore and Kerry got, but I’ve never seen a specific comparison of what the turnout might look like.
And the advantage of the spread the table campaign approach this time is that an infrastructure is built to compete in currently Red states in the future. Some might not flip this time but they are positioned to become more competitive later.
It would probably be hard to predict even at this stage, but I’m pretty sure the turn out will be historic…and not just for blacks but over all. Maybe I’ve been captured by the SDMB system but…it’s looking more and more like ‘landslide’ may just be how thing thing works out in the end.
I’ve already voted (New Mexico allowed early voting starting last weekend), and even early there were a lot of people there. Just an anecdote of course but I think we are going to get a LOT more folks voting than ever before.
-XT
Yeah, I’m starting to think so, too. I think all the polls are probably ignoring the landline impaired (I’m actually in that cohort) and perhaps over-focusing on traditional electoral demographics. And there’s certainly been a lot of early voting. This is the first time I know of that voting is cool, or at least it’s cool after a fashion. Obama is a politician but also a pop culture figure in a way that even Clinton wasn’t.
Was it sort of like this in 1960? I know it’s a trite comparison, but it stands out.
Well, I don’t know from personal experience, mind (that was the year I was born :p), but I think this is going to top even that. In fact, I’m sure it is. And yeah…Obama is MUCH more than Clinton ever was.
-XT