They say that they were lied to and told that it was for training.
Even if it weren’t, with this sort of war, the morale is bound to be higher on the defender’s side than the attacker’s.
Ukraine didn’t attack Russia or do anything to deserve invasion. It’s hard for an invading Russian soldier to have much particular motivation for anything.
A lot of their people back home are against it. And supposedly at least some of the oligarchs are pissed at Putin.
This leads me to something that I have been wondering. Or possibly two things:
How much support does Putin actually have for this invasion? How many people in Russia actually feel that taking over the Ukraine is a “good thing”, either in terms of something that will actually benefit Russia or that Russia is justified in doing? Is it possible that if enough people, particularly those who have some power in Russia, feel that Putin is overstepping his “authority” in attacking Ukraine this could somehow lead to him being forced to step down or assassinated?
I freely admit to not knowing the strength of Putin’s power base, or whether he could lose enough of it to be at risk.
I’m guessing that with the plummet of the value of the ruble, their pay is not going to be an incentive for risking their lives, either.
How is it even plausible that they were “tricked” into thinking that crossing another country’s borders by force was “training”?
Why do you think they even knew where they were or where they were going? You follow orders, get on the troop train or the transport, and they take you to where they tell you to go.
sorry, but that is not how devaluation works … (at least in the short term)
their wage decreased by 20% today (expressed in us$) … but the price for all products in the market in moscow also decreased by 20% today
so as long as they don’t have to buy things abroad, its a non-issue, as you have the same multiplier on both sides of the equation
A reasonable person would know what country are they in, and more importantly, the difference between civilian and military targets.
As mentioned in a previous thread, “following orders” is NOT a legitimate excuse.
And in fact, it seems that many of the Russian soldiers are, in fact, hesitating to attack civilian targets, despite their orders.
Sure, if the devaluation affects everything all at once by the same amount. But it never actually works that way. Businesses will recognize that the money is losing value, and so will very quickly raise their prices. Do you think that the Russian government who pays the soldiers will be similarly quick to recognize the issue, and raise the soldiers’ pay?
I’m not excusing it. Pay attention. I’m arguing that it’s very possible to load people ointo a transport, not tell them where they’re going, and get them someplace without their being aware of where they are It’s got nothing to do with “reasonable” – it’s whether you’re informed or not. That might be beyond their control.
And as soon as they realized they WERE being told to attack civilian targets, many of them rebelled. But they didn’t know in advance.
Read about the way workers could be transported to work on the mass launchers in Heinlein’s “Moon is a Harsh Mistress” and not know where they were.
The soldier could not possibly have thought they were on a training mission the whole time - while firing live rounds at live targets. It is not implausible they were told initially they were on a training mission, perhaps up to the point of actually going over the border.
Anyway, in war the first casualty is truth. The soldier may well be lying because he doesn’t want to upset his captors and wants to appear innocent and apologetic. And the Ukrainians may have staged this and publicised this with a view to creating demoralization.
This isn’t aimed at you, D_Ancona but is just a general comment - everyone knows the old adage that the first casualty of war is truth. And everyone knows that nations have active propaganda departments that lie to advance their war efforts. But when a war breaks out, some (most?) people still seem to place a surprising amount of truth value on information from governments at war. Shrug.
most of the time - neither the consumers nor the commerce notes devaluation … they held 1000 rubles y/day, they hold 1000 rubles today … bread was 100 rubles y/day, bread is 100 rubles today…
again - and I mentioned this in my post - that is in the short run … if you have to replenish your stock and it comes from abroad and you have to pay in usd, then of course that filters in after a couple of weeks/months… But take the scenario of a local veggy market or bakery that buys all flour locally - there will be NO effect.
I assume that russia is a relatively domestic economy (by sheer size of its land, language barriers and not too smooth international supply chain) - so that could take a long time
but a scenario that is painted as “due to the sanctions, as of today everything is 20% more expensive for russians to buy due to the ruble taking a dive is NOT correct”
source: Me, I live in a country whose currency devaluated in the past months some 20% against the usd (over a period of serveral months) … the only thing people keep saying is … “wow … the dollar is getting expensive” … its psychology … everything around you stays the same.
there is also the chance, that conscript nr:1234567 who is sitting in the rear of a personnell truck with 36 others really has no idea where they are going …
from a “command” side of view … why would you want to know 100.000 conscripts where they are going … that is just a risk … just keep it among the 1.000 officers and there is less chance somebody spills the beans while being drunk, etc…
Also, I get the feeling that the russian army is way more vertical (and less “democratic”) than western armies … just shut up and do what you are told … that kind of things
Years after the Soviet Union (as Russia was then) sent troops to Afghanistan, I spoke with a Russian friend who was in the army at the time.
He explained that his unit was simply told to get on an aircraft, flown to an airport (which turned out to be in Afghanistan) and told to set up a perimeter.
At first he had no idea where they were.
Sure, as long as you live in a bubble. Once you factor in international trade you have a problem.
How many of the soldiers have personal GPS devices (phones, watches, etc)? They wouldn’t necessarily know where they are going but they’d know where they are. At some point they were given live rounds & told to ‘saddle up’ & then it becomes quite obvious.
This, probably. If you’re a POW, the last thing you want to do is piss off your captors. You’ll say whatever makes you most sympathetic in their eyes.
Here in the US, whenever anything happens to the oil supply anywhere in the world, prices at the pump go up within the hour. The gas station owners don’t wait for the effects to work their way through the supply chain. Anyone whose supply chain involves foreign trade reacts instantly.
The same thing would be true for Russia… except that there, everything BUT oil is dependent on foreign supply chains. The bread that was 100 rubles yesterday is made from foreign wheat. And the bakers there are going to raise their prices just as quickly as the gas stations here. As will everyone else, except the government.