So Carlos Beltran is about to sign a 7 year, $119M contract with the Mets. Is it just me, or is he about the most overrated player of all time? Look at the numbers .
In about 5 1/2 seasons of games (885), he has hit 146 HR. Only about 27 per season. His high was 36 last year. So he might be coming on in power, but Sammy Sosa he ain’t. His batting average is .284, and has never hit over .307. So he ain’t Tony Gwynn either. He has 192 stolen bases, or around 35 per year with a high of 42 last year. I don’t think Rickey Henderson is losing any sleep over him. He’s a very good player and does a lot of things very well. But they’re throwing money at him as if he’s the second coming of Willie Mays. Granted, he hit the cover off the ball in the postseason last year, but come on. He isn’t that good.
Agreed. Maybe timing is everything. Didn’t nobody want this guy mid-season last year? Then, he winds up on a contender (Houston), and has an excellent post-season. So then he’s in the spotlight and now some teams are interested in him, like an elusive baseball card in a small neighobordhood of collectors, all wanting him (partly for the status too?).
Just another case of the Mets paying superstar money to a non-superstar. They do it every winter. Beltran will be good (but not great), and I’ll be very surprised if they finish higher than third.
A couple of things have led up to the Mets spending wildly and likely fruitlessly.
Beltran has spent the last 2 years being pumped up as “the most underrated player in the game”, “the greatest player you haven’t seen”, “the next Barry Bonds”, etc, etc. He has played quite well but people are also sucked into a certain amount of hype.
His agent is Scott Boras, who is pretty darned good at getting massive contracts for hopeless players (Darren Dreifort) so he can do pretty well with a top of the line player.
The Mets, for some reason, have finally decided to be a player for high salary free agents. It’s been years since they have acted like this. Heck, this article talks about how little the Mets have even tried.
This is the offseason where spending limits have mostly disappeared for owners. Richie Sexson is coming off of a major injury and gets $50MM. Troy Glaus got $45M. $7-8M a year for Jon Lieber, Jaret Wright, or Al Leiter? Owners seem to be overpaying for mediocre talent.
Beltran had the lucky combo of good skills, a wildly overpriced marketplace, and the lack of other options for teams. I doubt the Mets win the division even with him. Their pitching is looking like it’s ready to collapse at some point and Piazza is definitely on the wrong side of his career arc.
I’m glad you started this thread. I too was befuddled at the praise being thrown to him, given that he doesn’t hit over 300 and doesn’t hit 40+ HR or 130RBI. I just attributed it to my not knowing enough about the guy.
I disagree. He’s a switch hitter with power, speed, contact, and incredible fielding skills. He is the absolute complete package at this time. Andre Dawson is a great comparison - few people respected his numbers because he played for such a bad team. Beltran has put up quality numbers for a #2 slot in the lineup, and he does it from both sides of the plate. He switched leagues last year and didn’t miss a beat (his power numbers slightly declined, but his average went up - very impressive). All that, and he’s only 27 years old.
With that said, I think him taking a job in New York is a bad move. It’s high profile and a bad hitter’s park. I wish him luck - us Royals fans already miss him.
The only way the Mets win the NL East is if the Braves, Phillies and Marlins all decide to become soccer teams. The Mets don’t have the team to win in AAA, much less the NL East.
That said, I’m glad he’s out of the NL Central now, because that’s one less threat the Astros will have against the Cards.
He’s been the best all-around centerfielder in the game for 2 years straight now, with the only CFer able to challenge him being Jim Edmonds. And Beltran’s just hitting his prime. Is he worth the Mets’ contract? I dunno, it depends on what the market’s like the next few years. If it’s like last year, then no. If it’s like this year, then yes.
The difference between Beltran and every other CFer in the game (aside from Edmonds) is the same as the difference between Todd Helton and every other 1B in the game (aside from Pujols). It’s a gulf.
I also have to agree that Beltran is just hitting his prime. And for the last 3 years his OPS+ has been rising stedily to a 136 OPS+ last year (which means he’s 36% better than the average player… a substantial number). He is very likely to improve as he gets into his prime. Add to that he has great speed, which is something the Mets are trying to build on. And has great baserunning instincts, since he hardly ever gets caught on the basepaths.
Is he overpaid? Probably, but it depends if the owners still spend like drunken sailors in the next few years as opposed to the (somewhat) fiscal restraint they’ve shown.
Oh, and I’d prefer Beltran to play LF for the Mets. Cameron is a superior defensive CF.
I just did a quick search, but couldn’t find it - where do you get your OPS+ numbers from?
Interesting. Both had the same number of errors last season, but Cameron had 100 fewer ABs (19 fewer games) (Beltran had no appearances as DH in the AL last season). Plus, more than half his games were played under the shadow of that damned flagpole in CF at Minute Maid. Additionally, Beltran had 13 assists to Cameron’s 7. I don’t think the numbers hold up your assertion. I’d rather see Beltran in left simply because he’s less injury-prone there.
Runs Above Average have them both at about the same level last year. I think that about jives with my impression that they’re both about equivalent defensively.
Tough to justify that number, but the Mets had to do something to generate some heat this offseason. New front office people, new cable network starting next year, the Braves signing Gabe White and Tim Hudson, etc. have forced them to make some moves. Gotta figure the Beltran deal will make it almost impossible to find room for Carlos Delgado. I honestly doubt Pedro and Beltran will have the impact they are hoping for, but you never know.
Cameron had a slightly better Range Factor in the NL (2.67 to 2.60), also a similar Fielding Percentage in the NL (.978 to .977). Furthermore, I’d consider spacious Shea Stadium as more difficult to defend in CF than Minute Maid Park (for instance it was one of Cameron’s worst years in Range Factor, Fielding Percentage, Errors, etc).
Though a lot of fielding is subjective. There aren’t many good measures of it. Saying that, Cameron has 2 Gold Gloves and Beltran doesn’t have any.
It’s not a horrible contract, certainly. From a pure baseball standpoint, he’s probably slightly overpaid. He’s had one great year, and a couple of very good ones. Unfortunately, that makes him more likely to be very good than great over the next few years…
From a off-the-field point of view, there are some other benefits, if the Mets handle it right. Getting a player the Yankees were at least rumored to want always helps. And if the Mets can market Beltran correctly, that’s another plus.
As someone stated on another message board I read, the Mets now have Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran locked up for the next five years. That’s one heck of a core to build around.
Now if only they had kept Scott Kazmir…
Here’s another comparison, which is going to make Beltran look WAY overpaid. Last year Vlad Guerrero got 5 years at $14 million per, if memory serves. Carlos Beltran is nowhere near the player Guerrero is, of course.
I guess that’s the difference between being hurt in your walk year, and hitting 0.435 in the playoffs in your walk year.
Except, the park Cameron was playing in before Shea was Safeco - which is even more spacious. I hardly think it was the stadium, most likely just an off year. It happens.
I’d also argue that Shea is easier to defend than Minute Maid. Shea is more spacious, meaning that a player with a lot of range is going to get to more balls that would be homers in another park. And you don’t have to worry about slamming into a wall or breaking your ankle running up a hill.
Pfft. I think that Gold Gloves were proven to be a joke when Palmeiro won one at a position he barely played. And of course, there was Derek Jeter winning one this year.
Anyway, a good measure is runs above replacement. It’s basically range factor, but corrected for park, league, pitching, etc. It shows Cameron and Beltran to be about equivalent.
Naw, the more spacious parks are more difficult to defend because there is more space to cover. If the ball goes over in one park, you only have to be cognizant if it is close to going over, so you can climb the wall. However, if that area is within the field of play, you have to be able to run full out and perhaps dive to make the play, or else it’s a triple. Where you set up is vitally important in a spacious park. The smaller parks are very easy to defend comparitively.
Which means, of course, that he’s really NOT Andre Dawson. Almost all the players on that comparison list did what they did during a time when there were much lower batting averages, home run totals, walks, etc. Most of the players on that list were in fact superior hitters.
Having said that, whether or not Beltran is worth it to the Mets is dependent upon how much money they have to burn and what the alternatives are. Given that Beltran is only 27 and seems healthy, it might be worth it to the Mets to basically lock center field down in the hands of such a good player for the next seven years. Beltran might not be Willie Mays but he’s as safe a bet as you can make to deliver year after year.