Beltran is a big time player, for sure: Power, Speed, Defense. His BA is not super great, however.
It’s a very generous contract. Beltran got pretty lucky; The stars aligned at just the right time. 
Personally, I’d rather have Jim Edmonds, Johnny Damon, or Steve Finley in CF, but that’s just me. Beltran is right up there.
That Beltran is a very good centerfielder is a given. Between him and Edmonds, if the ball is hit to center those guys will catch it if it’s catchable. But if I had to choose between a centerfielder with an average glove and superior bat vs. one with a superior glove and average bat, I’ll take the bat. I think the number of bases you give up on defense with an average centerfielder vs. a superior one isn’t that great. Sure, Beltran will turn some hits into outs and some doubles into singles over the course of a season. But the defensive impact of a centerfielder is in my opinion not that as great as that of a shortstop. In fact, give me a rightfielder with a cannon for an arm over a fleet footed centerfielder any day.
Beltran’s offensive stats just aren’t that impressive. I don’t care how good you are defensively, to me a centerfielder has to bat more than .307. Again, he’s a very good player. But he isn’t yet a superstar. He might be over time, but I think it just as likely that his playoff success could be a flash in the pan.
So the only CFs that you approved of last year were Juan Pierre, Aaron Rowand and Mark Kotsay?!? I’ll also mention that he wasn’t seeing a lot of pitches in Kansas City, since he had what fairly pathetic protection behind him in the lineup.
And his contract and current superstar status have very little to do with his playoff success. They have to do with the fact that he’s a consistent hitter with power from both sides of the plate to go along with speed and smart baserunning, and transitioned from the AL to the NL with few issues.
As usual, the Sabrheads don’t understand that a player’s value isn’t told only by statistics.
There are a lot of good things about Beltran that have nothing to do with his numbers. Primarily, the Mets need a real star, and fast, and Beltran is the clear choice this year. They are forming a new TV network, and need to become competitive by 2006. To do that, they need a player they can promote.
That’s been their strategy this offseason: go hard for big names (like Pedro and Beltran). And Latin ballplayers are an even bigger plus: there’s a large latin American community in NYC, and adding Pedro and Beltran gets their attention. This can translate into higher attendance.
The Beltran move was also necessary to ameliorate the bad feelings about the Kazmir trade (which wasn’t as bad as people have made it out to be – sure it’d be good to keep Kazmir, and the trade probably shouldn’t have been done, but Zambrano seems like a solid pitcher who certainly improved their staff). It will also create preseason excitement, which will translate into season ticket sales.
As far as overpaid, the Astros were willing to pay almost as much (Beltran would have made about the same after taxes in Houston; they didn’t sign him because they refused to grant him a no-trade clause). They knew what they had and obviously felt his value was pretty high. In addition, the Mets were forced to bid high simply because they didn’t have as much to offer otherwise (Beltran was willing to accept a lower amount from the Yankees – even after the Mets made their offer).
The Mets have now locked in one of the top CFs in baseball at the peak of his career. They probably paid a bit too much, but they had little choice if they wanted to turn the franchise around.
But the issue isn’t “why did the Mets sign Beltran?” It’s the amount they paid to do so. If you ignore the money, why is this a bad signing?
Correct, I was just talking about in terms of range factor. Sorry I didn’t make that clear. If you’ve got two CFers with equal ability, the guy in the more spacious park is going to make more plays.
Yep. They’ve both got a career RA rate of 104. Both are absolutely outstanding defensive centerfielders.
For him, I suppose. Just off the top of my head, Carlos Guillen, Bobby Crosby and Miguel Tejada were better defensively. Tejada was MUCH better defensively. Frankly, it shouldn’t even have been close. But Jeter dove into the stands.
I’m sorry, but Steve Finley? You’re joking right? Edmonds is equivalent to Beltran, and I might entertain the argument that Damon is as valuable as Beltran, but Finley? Unless you mean the Steve Finley from 2000 only, there’s no way he even belongs in this discussion.
So even though the Sabrheads are the ones agreeing with your position that Beltran’s worth it, we don’t understand? Whatever. Read the thread before you start babbling next time.
Exactly. Agreeing or not, the question of whether Beltran is worth it or not cannot be answered solely by citing statistics.
When the ultimate goal is wins and losses (and by extension, playoff success), it almost certainly can. On field success can be fairly decently predicted by past results of the player, the park, and the surrounding league. Short of injury or some over-riding outside factor (steroids, juiced balls) Beltran can be expected fairly closely mirror his most recent years, adjusted for the fact that he is in more of a pitcher’s park and the National League tends to have less offense than the American League.
One could put forth the argument that the money spent by the Mets provides other, less tangible benefits such as increased interest among Central American fans, a more public face for the future Mets channel, and the chance to sign higher profile free agents who just want to play with Beltran. But each of those could be said to be somewhat apocryphal with little basis in actual results. More fans? Maybe. But unless there is an uptick in Mets merchandise being sold, tickets being sold, and pricier ad revenue than having more fans doesn’t do much for the bottom line. Especially considering the bottom line is tougher to reach now that there is a much larger expense on the books. A more public face? I could throw forth Piazza, Glavine, or Pedro. And I’d be willing to bet that few, if any free agents choose to play somewhere because of who they get to play with. In the real world, money and family win out over buddies so I doubt the Mets get any value from this.
And, in all of the above cases, the return is based on Beltran’s stats. He sucks and no extra money will be flowing into the Mets pockets. Rather, people will be deriding another idiotic Mets decision and the fan base will be eroded. Beltran does great and the fans will come but that is still driven by his on-field statistical results. Based on runs created, Beltran could be expected to add 50 runs of improvement over Cameron while Cameron offers minimal improvement over whoever he replaces. Based on that, Beltran could be expected to add 10 wins to the Mets, which puts them right around .500. The Mets would clearly need a lot more help to win the extra 13+ games needed to get them into playoff contention.
Is it a darn good signing? Yes. Does this signal that the Mets have a future? Sure. Is Beltran the one that will lead them to the promised land? Maybe, but old and mediocre pitching and a lack of depth in offense will probably keep this team hovering around average until they start spending their money more wisely in other areas. This gives them a start but it is far from a final solution.
Err a, Finley was ranked 4th among ML CF’s last year. 36 HR’s, 94 RBI’s, 92 R’s, .992 FLD%. The guys has almost over 300 career HR’s, over 300 career SB’s. Great defensively.
So yeah, they are comparable.
Still doesn’t take into account that the guy is 39 years old. You would honestly rather sign a 39 year old center fielder to a long term contract over Carlos Beltran? :dubious:
It appears that I wandered off topic. I was just arguing that they have comparable skills.
No way would I sign Finley to a long term contract. 2 or 3 year contract, yes.
Sammy was a late bloomer who didn’t have an MVP-quality season until he was 29.
Putting that aside for now, let’s look at the money. CB will be making 17m/year on average. This is a pretty high salary. Who made more than that in '04?
Only 7 players:
Mo Vaughn. Oops, the Mets paid Mo 17.16 million last year. Beltran’s definitely worth more than Mo.
Pedro Martinez, 17.5m. Hey, is CB as good as Pedro? I think so. At least CB plays every day.
Barry Bonds, 18m. He’s a bargain.
Jeter, 18.6m. I’m reasonably sure that CB is worth more than DJ.
Carlos Delgado, 19.7m. Vastly overpriced. CB is worth more.
A-Rod, 22m. He gets a lot of flack from people, but I still think he’s worth top dollar.
Manny Ramirez, 22.5m. See A-Rod.
Now, let’s look at the guys who made less than, but close to, 17m in '04:
Shawn Green, 16.66m
Mike Piazza, 16.07m
Mike Mussina, 16m
Jeff Bagwell, 16m
Randy Johnson, 16m
Sammy Sosa, 16m
All these guys either were not as valuable as CB was last year, or were good but are getting so old that they’re not likely to be more valuable than CB for more than another year or two. Anyway, considering that CB is locked up for the next 7 years and is likely to be a top player for at least the next 3 to 5, I think the Mets got a very good deal.
There just aren’t a ton of great offensive CFs today. I really don’t think Beltran is that far above say Damon and Edmonds to command such a salary. If Houston and Boston had swapped centerfielders, I don’t see either team changing that much. As far as seeing good pitches, I think the 2004 Astros protected his bat more than the 2005 Mets will.
I dunno, CCC. If all my budget allowed was a 2-3 contract, and I could sign either Beltran (with hopes for more later) or Finley (with hopes he might wear your team’s hat in Cooperstown, if he makes it (doubtful)), I think I’d go with Beltran - hoping I could pick him up afterwards. Having Beltran on good terms could alleviate some pressure on cultivating an offensive/defensive gem in the minors to take Finley’s place after his inevitable retirement.
Munch:
Say what? Mike Sweeney batted after him. What better protection could a batter ask for?
Um, no, they’re not. Sorry, but you’re just flat wrong.
First off, he’s not great defensively. Finley’s just average nowadays. So just toss that out the window right now.
Second, who cares about his career line? Reggie Jackson’s got better career numbers than either, do you want to put him in your lineup next year? Didn’t think so.
Third, ranked fourth according to what criteria? Beltran was second in OPS, Finley was eighth. Beltran was fifth in OBP, Finley was 15th. Beltran was third in SLG, Finley was fifth. We won’t even get into stolen bases and stolen base percentage. The only place Beltran and Finley are comparable is in BA, and probably SLG, with Finley being inferior but not terribley so. Beltran was about 30 runs better than Finley offensively last year, and another 10 runs better defensively. That’s not a difference, that’s a gulf.
Fourth, even if he ranked fourth, so what? What’s the difference in skill between third and fourth? Is it more than the difference between one and two? Using your logic, we could say that Jimmy Rollins is comparable to Miguel Tejada because CBS ranked him second. Give me a break.
Ok, after seeing career stats, I’m willing to say Beltran is similar defensively to Cameron. However, I’d still like to see Cameron in CF. Why? Because of his 2003 season. 2004, moving to a new park, could have resulted in a down year for Cameron. In 2003, he had an absolutely FABULOUS year, including a 141 RAR. I’d like to keep Cam in CF to see if that was his true defensive worth, or just an outlier. And if it was an outlier, he’s not worse than Beltran, so it wouldn’t hurt the team any.
I do know that Mets pitchers last year loved Cameron in CF, compared to prior years ;). That as much as anything may have led to the lower ERAs :D.
Someone who doesn’t grimace everytime he stands up? Seriously, the last several years Sweeney hasn’t been the picture of reliability, missing nearly 150 games in the last 3 years. And after Sweeney in the lineup, who’s left? Gonzalez? Stairs? Randa? Nope, Beltran put up impressive numbers with a poor supporting cast. Pair him up with Wright, Reyes and Piazza, and he may even show improved numbers.
According to this criteria.
Finley is a Top 5 CF’er, and has been for many years. And he is certainly not an average fielder. The guy had 3 errors in 158 games last year. His arm is not what it used to be, for sure, but he is still a great defensive player.
What is the formula they use for that ranking? I could come up with a formula that lists Bernie Williams as the most valuable center fielder in the game but that doesn’t make it correct, accurate, or reliable. I’m not yet saying this is a poor tool, just that since I can’t find the components, I can’t fairly judge it. And without knowing the components, you can’t either. Even if this is a fine system, the gulf between Beltran and Finley is fairly immense. Under that same reasoning, Mark Kotsay is as valuable as Steve Finley. If you use a more standardized measurement like RC/27, Beltran provides 7.56 runs per game while Finley sits at 5.48. That’s a pretty big gulf.
Number of errors is a fairly poor way to view defensive skills. Sure Finley did a fine job handling balls that he reached, but did he reach as many balls as Beltran (or even as many as he has in the past)? In 2004, Beltran had a Zone Rating of .886 and a range factor of 2.70, both fairly impressive. Meanwhile, Finley had a ZR of .855 and a range factor of 2.37 both of which essentially mean that Finley gets to a lot fewer balls than Beltran. If pitchers understand those numbers, I can promise you they pick Beltran every time. And Finley is trending the wrong way on his career arc.
All that said, Finley would be a fine 2 year stopgap for the right price which is certainly much lower than Beltran, but you would also get a player that’s not even remotely in Beltran’s league by any measure (and veteran leadership or clubhouse presence aren’t measures). He would do quite well manning a position until the AA or AAA stud is ready. Signing Beltran, while costing big bucks (and I made the case above that the bucks are a bit too big and the results will be less then most Mets fans will initially expect) is the type of signing that can change a franchises fortunes provided they don’t drop the ball elsewhere.
[waves white flag]
Ok, ok, you guys win! I’m not afraid to admit when I am wrong. You have convinced me. Beltran is the better player!
Having said that, I still don’t think the “gulf” is as wide as you guys are making it out to be. A CF that hits 36 HR’s, with 90+ RBI’s, and a good BA can’t be THAT far behind, can he?
Granted, Beltran beats him with superior speed and better defensive skills.
Maybe I’m somewhat biased, because I have always felt that Finley has been such an underrated player, for so long. I guess I am stretching it a bit, in order to defend him.