Caspar Weinberger

in responding to the question “what would happen when Iraq launches scuds Israel in response to a US attack” responded that if Hussein were “taken out quickly enough” Iraq would have no chance to respond. It was very difficult destroying mobile launchers during the Gulf War. Was Weinberger having a seinor moment, or still following a political agenda?

There’s no reason to assume that Cap was wrong or lying. I read or heard someone make a comment that it would be easier for us to detect and nullify the scud launchers this time, but I do not remember why or who said it. Still, if my memory is correct, CW’s comment may be correct or, at least, sincere.

Weinberger could be right. In brutal dictatorships like this, the government is often highly unstable and motivated solely by fear of the dictator’s secret police. If Saddam is killed, you might find an extremely rapid collapse of the entire military structure.

Also, during Desert Storm, there were only 2 J-STARS, and prototypes, at that. (J-STARS is roughly AWACS, but for ground control, rather then air control).

Now we have around a dozen, I think, not to mention the all of the UAV’s we have zipping around now.

Not to say that we can throw up a 100% scud-proof shield, but we are markedly more capable now, in this respect at least, then we were in '91.

Israel has recently installed two new batteries of anti-missile defenses that are way advanced beyond Patriot.

Caspar’s opinion seems to reflect the hawk’s assessment of the Iraqi military.
Tom DeLay, is even more optimistic:

Senior House Republican Sees Mass Iraqi Surrender
With analysis like this, I’m quite happy that it’ll not be my ass on the line over there.

Gee, Squink, are you saying that you are quite sure that the Iraqi military will die to the last man to defend Saddam, in direct opposition to what happened in the Gulf War?

What is your basis for your belief that this time, they will be committed to die for their Glorious Leader?


No Shodan that’s not what I’m saying. Are you saying that you’re willing to Prance your sons and daughters into Baghdad candy-ass naked because some politico says Iraq’s a paper tiger ?