Doesn’t seem to be anything serious, just a little “gastrointestinal bleeding.” But this story was inevitably going to spawn a new “After Castro?” thread, so why waste time?
Place your bets!
Gods know. I don’t think the old bugger is quite ready to kick the bucket…but at 80 any surgery can go bad. What will happen after? Obviously his brother will be in command…for the few years before HE kicks the bucket. I’m unsure if the US would be willing to normalize relations with Castro’s brother at the helm…maybe, maybe not. Perhaps Castro kicking the bucket AND the incentive of oil would do it for us.
I could then get my cigars. 
-XT
If he is bleeding from the varices of the stomach he’s walking the green mile. There is no surgical cure for the problem and he probably won’t make his 80th birthday in 2 weeks. Not a pleasant way to go. Since he turned over power to his brother I suspect it is something as serious as this.
If I understood the article correctly Castro isn’t just handing over power for the couple hours he’ll be under (like Bush has done), but for several weeks/months while his brother essentially serves as regent? It sounds like Cuba will have a new Supreme Leader by the midterm elections (I wonder what effect that’ll have?). And as long as we’re speculating; what heads of state/government will show up at the funeral?
Well, I guess Hugo Chavez would be obligated. And maybe a lot of other Latin American heads of state – at least, the leftist ones (might turn into a litmus test at home, for them). And Thabo Mbeki of South Africa, since Castro always supported Nelson Mandela. And maybe, just maybe, Vladimir Putin. But none of Castro’s fellow Communist heads of state (from China, Vietnam, Laos, North Korea) – because it’s not entirely safe for them to travel that far.
It is worth remembering that the obsession with Cuba is an entirely US affair. A state funeral for a Cuban head of state would most likely be treated the same way by most other countries in the world as for any other state. Usual diplomatic procedures would apply. WIth Cuba I would expect Prince Charles would be asked to cover for the Queen, and probably Tony Blair himself or Margaret Becket as Foreign Secretary to attend. Only really close countries would get the Queen herself.
Nobody else but the US treats Cuba as a pariah.
Are you serious?! Doesn’t every country in Europe still carry baggage from the Cold War?!
Yes, but we are not affected by the long reach of the shadow of the Monroe Doctrine. :rolleyes:
Interesting developments. This blog is pretty up to the minute.
This Miami Herald article (registration required) worried me a bit; it describes huge celebrations in the streets of Miami, but virtually nothing going on in Havana. Are the Miami exiles expecting a revolution that’s not going to happen…?
And if Castro’s brother keeps Cuba on the same track…will any of it matter?
Just playing Devil’s Advocate. If you were Cuban, and Fidel was either a) in for a little surgery, b) gravely ill or c) maybe already dead. His brother, maybe in charge, maybe a placeholder for a time. Would you run out into the streets to celebrate? Or wait for more concrete news?
You’re right of course; I meant to add a line about reprisals for people celebrating in Havana, but I was spacing out at the time.
Still, you can’t help but wonder if there’s a degree of disconnect between the fervor of the exiles and those who stayed behind. It wouldn’t be the first time that kind of thing has happened.
As a side note, I’m coincidentally in the middle of Joan Didion’s great Miami. It’s about 20 years old, but still gives a fascinating insight into the exiled Cuban-American community and the city they’ve done so much to create. I’d highly recommend it, especially to anyone who wants some background on the unfolding events.
Well, to your point of Miamians jumping the gun, I’ll bet the underground is buzzing in Havana. They might not be celebrating in the streets, and I’m kind of assuming they don’t have much internet access or a blogosphere, but you know word is spreading*, people are whispering, hopes are high.
*I have no factual basis for this, TOTAL assumption. But a logical one, I think.
Or an invasion or other intervention by the US. They’ve been pandered to for so long they probably expect it.
There is certainly something peculiar going on, I heard that they broadcast FC’s ‘letter’ five times.
If I were Raul Castro I would be very nervous of civil unrest when FC snuffs it.
The Cuban population is well aware that they are seriously impoverished compared with the West.
It would be tactful for the USA to drop the embargo as soon as his death is anounced, they can always say that their beef with Castro was purely personal and they have nothing against the Cuban people. Complete nonsense, but it would be a convenient way of drawing a line under things.
Actually a public message to RC sending condolences for his /personal/ loss, would be quite an interesting olive branch.
I don’t know much about Raul, it is possible that he might fancy a dignified retirement.
If he were subtle he could organize a suitably rigged election, the big worry would be the transition period.
Don’t know about that, but when I went to Germany to visit a friend, I noticed that one of the lesser expensive and more popular vacations plastered on the posters of travel agencies was cuba. Hell - 4 days, 3 nights flight and hotel was $250 euro. He was trying to convince me that we should go there for a quick few days because it was a sort of cold clammy rainy couple of weeks until I pointed out to him that if a cuban stamp appeared on my pasport I could probably kiss off trying to get back into the US through US Customs…
FWIW, Egypt package was 300 euro, and Lybia was about 325 euros.
So Dubya & Friends get to pick up the hot potato of explaining to them that, no, the Marines aren’t fetching Grandpa’s stuff for them. Live by the pander, die by the pander.
I used to have two passports, both UK
I was asked to go to Israel at short notice, and my ‘Western’ pasport had five days on it.
No sweat at Heathrow, but when I got to TLV the lass spotted that it would expire before my return date.
Reluctantly I produced my other passport, it had an unused permit for the Lebanon and an entry and exit for Sudan
Quite amusing.
I expect you could have got the Cuban entry stamp on a separate bit of paper.
I believe Cuba also has world record on the number of hookers per inhabitants. Apparently a large number of the “progressive” Europeans taking a short vacation to Cuba to have a taste of the delicious samba-socialism, take the opportunity to buy a local girl cheaply for their hard western currency. It used to be so in the old East European block as well. Your money could really get you places on a vacation to Yugoslavia (I was there) or a trip to Moscow. Not much to buy. But you can always buy a girl or two with the blessing of Fidel Castro and his communism that has prostituted his whole population.
Hmmm, sounds much like what my grandfather had before he passed away last year, perhaps we’ll see his state funeral fairly soon.
That should be entertaining.