Crop dusters are totally ruled out?
I thought I misheard the Governor when he said all nursing home patients vaccinated by the end of the year but it may have been the original plan. We’re off to a slower start than expected but the age 60 and over totals are now 55,277. If that is mostly nursing home patients then we are above 70%. That is of course just the first of 2 shots.
There’s a considerable push-back from nursing home staff on the vaccine. So far 60% of them have refused it. That can’t be a good example for the patients.
91-divoc is now showing international and state vaccination numbers. They aren’t as fast as one might hope.
As far as I can see, it doesn’t have state numbers.
Better than I expected, if I’ve done the numbers right.
According to that graph, the U.S. is now vaccinating 0.2% of the population per day. Given the starting problems with the infrastructure, I think it’s conservative to assume that we will increase that to 0.5% per day. But we need two shots, so let’s assume 0.25% per day over the next few months.
24% of the population is under 18, and let’s assume that another 26% will reject vaccination, so half the population want to be vaccinated. At 0.25% per day it will take 200 days to vaccinate 50% of the population, so everyone who wants a vaccine will be done by July.
Weird. It did the other day. Now i can’t get them, either.
Are you not looking at total vaccinations? It looks to me like stuck at .2% for three days. The vaccines/day is a messy chart on my phone.
Eta: no, now I see the tail end is a proper upward line and currently over 233/100k/day.
You’ve done a lot more assumption guidelines than this simple counter, but this counter measures the rate of vaccinations per day to get how long it would take to get the country to 70% vaccinated. When I originally posted it in the breaking news thread on Jan 8, the time to herd was 1,195 days.
Today, 4 days later, the time to herd is 711 days. So the rate of daily vaccinations is definitely increasing.
We also need to consider immunity from natural infections, which paints a more optimistic picture of the path to herd immunity.
Youyang Gu, an MIT data scientist, has been the most accurate modeler I’ve come across during the pandemic. He and his team are now modeling the path to herd immunity in the US and consider both natural infections and vaccinations. You can see their current projections here:
They’re currently predicting herd immunity could occur around July 2021.
Nice! I’ve been reading that kind of time frame from other sources as well, from people predicting when things will return to “normal”.
That’s when community spread stops completely, but they have new infections dropping to a negligible number by the and of April.
The biggest assumption they are making is about whether the vaccine prevents asymptomatic infection and transmission from the vaccinated person. Their statement on this is:
While it is still unclear if the vaccine provides sterilizing immunity, we assume that the vaccine, if effective, can provide functional immunity for the individual and significantly reduce their likelihood of being infectious for at least the duration of 2021. Pfizer expects to report data on whether or not its vaccine stops virus transmission in the first quarter of 2021.
They assume 85% efficacy in preventing disease, so I assume this means that they also assume 85% efficacy is stopping transmission. Perhaps a more conservative assumption might be better here.
It’s also assuming that most people who catch the disease and recover acquire immunity. I think that’s optimistic. The immunity measured in vaccine recipients was much stronger and more consistent than in people who caught it.
Yes, I think modeling herd immunity and estimating when things will get back to normal has a lot of uncertainty in it until we get more data. And it’s sobering that even under their assumptions, a total of 35% of the population will be infected before community spread slows in March and stops in April.
But we have good data on efficacy in preventing disease, and I think we can be reasonably confident about vaccine logistics from here. So, from an individual perspective, it’s encouraging to know that we can all be vaccinated by summer. That makes me feel much more positive, and even more determined to get through another few months taking great care that I don’t catch it.
Might be optimistic, but I think it’s the correct view based on current data. Reinfection remains extremely rare and we’re now seeing results of studies that show immunity many months after infection.
Study showing neutralizing antibodies 6 months after infection:
Another study showing immunity at 6-8 months:
1,246 person study observed no symptomatic re-infections over 6 months:
Here’s a tracker of confirmed reinfections around the world.
In the context of 100s of millions of infections around the world, 33 confirmed reinfections and 2,400 suspected cases is great news. How long naturally acquired immunity (and vaccine acquired immunity) lasts remains to be seen, but so far results are encouraging.
I think I remember seeing speculation that a vaccine could result in stronger immunity than natural infection. Do you have a link?
There have been cases of people “getting sick again” from the start, in the very earliest papers, and you need a perfect storm to know that it’s a new infection – you need the person to have their virus sequenced both times and to be diagnosed with different strains. Otherwise the assumption is “you didn’t really get all better”.
I’ve posted about a dozen links to the MIT course on covid I audited this year. The lecture on “vaccines” shows immune response of both convalescent serum and serum from people in the early vaccine studies. The first is a scattering of dots all over the field, the second shows all dots up high, around the 80th percentile of the level of those naturally infected, iirc. Pretty sure it’s lecture 10
Ah, thanks! I bookmarked that and forgot about it. I’ll check it out.
This would be a great contribution to the thread about whether to get vaccinated if you’ve already had it!
It’s an hour lecture, and I’m referring to a slide somewhere in the midst of that. Not the best reference, really. (At least, I hate having to wade through long videos to find something.)