I wish I didn’t have to agree with this. A few weeks back, I saw live coverage of a Biden appearance at some event, at which he gave a brief statement. I don’t remember if he had a script or not (I suspect not), but there were no teleprompters, and it wasn’t just a matter of him speaking deliberately, due to his stammer – he was vocally wandering, and it just didn’t look or sound good.
I literally just Googled two random videos. The first one came up when I Googled “Vice President Biden speech”. It was the first result. Get out of here with that “handpicked” nonsense.
If you want to make a point, bring your own videos.
Dean Phillips
Dean Phillips, as cited above, joining the race (and it could be an actual race; he declared too late for the Nevada primary, but lest we forget Biden also threw in long after everyone assumed he wouldn’t) recently on pretty much Cenk’s assertion that Biden’s polling is a terrible portent given his accomplishments.
You might recall also how poorly Biden did after his late entry; it took a John Conyers endorsement prior to South Carolina to turn it around. I think people assuming anyone challenging the incumbent only helps Trump are wrong. Democracy needs this!
I’ll leave it to others here to vet this Phillips nobody and report back on his disqualifying membership in the Cub Scouts thirty years ago.
Swing voters always think that. They thought that at this point in 2012 and Obama cruised to victory.
Polling this early means literally nothing for the general election. Wait until the campaign, when the public is actually paying attention, and the candidates are actually campaigning.
Biden’s not going to drop out, barring a health emergency. We as Democratic voters need to accept this and do everything we can to help him win. For what it’s worth (which is not much, but still more than polling at this point), betting markets favor Biden over Trump right now.
Any loyal mainstream Democratic governor would have an excellent chance. And if Biden drops out (something I realize he has decided against), some of those would jump in.
If you want a name, Gretchen Whitmer.
My last link is to focus group data, not polling. So see also:
Gov. Whitmer Ten Points More Favorable than President Biden in Michigan
and:
Whitner is 13 points ahead of Biden here.
In the old days, my links would be meaningless, because voters didn’t think about politics until after election year Labor Day, and because all politics was proverbially local, and because voters were loyal to their state’s “favorite son.” Those days are long gone. Once a Whitmer, Newsom, or Shapiro got the national name recognition that comes with winning the nomination, slightly-leaning-towards Trump voters would rethink their choice, giving the Democrat a reasonable chance of beating DJT.
I think Dean Phillips would also be a stronger candidate than Biden. But because our federal legislature is unpopular, better to stay away from members of congress.
Whitmer would be a good choice.
[quote="iiandyiiii, post:
B304, topic:991927"]
Polling this early means literally nothing for the general election.
[/quote]
Oh I thoroughly agree, but when is hitting the panic
button considered
timely? I hope the answer’s not “when it’s too late”.
Primary challenges are good for democracy. Say this Phillips guy (a sitting Congressman who has won elections) turns out to be a real sparkplug, giving Biden a chance to prove or disprove his current mettle, perhaps altering the arc of an eventual Biden nomination or even - barely thinkable - beating Biden. Will those who insist we mustn’t show anything but unified support for Joe now change their tune?
I’ll weep for the coming Trump victory. I’d vote for Biden in the primary and whoever wins in the general, but in this circumstance Trump would likely cruise to victory.
In general I don’t have a problem with primary challenges, but in my understanding of history, significant primary challenges (of which, thankfully, so far there is none) to a sitting president always hurt them. Always.
I like that one too.
The ones you picked were bad enough.
I can’t make sense of this. You seem to be saying any serious challenge to Biden wounds him, makes him vulnerable. I’d say it tempers him - or, if he can’t take the heat, retires him. Which, depending on who they are and how they do it, could be a good thing either way. Magas, and most Republicans can’t be swayed but fresh voices do excite swing voters and Trump is anything but that.
Are there examples of challengers to sitting Presidents actually strengthening that President’s campaign?
History says it would wound him. Like Kennedy harmed Carter in the run up to '80.
But if Phillips is what he appears to be - a delusional, egotistical, otherwise boring congressman - no one will care and it won’t register as anything but a blip. We should hope it amounts to nothing, because history says the alternatives will be to help Trump get reelected.
I’ve seen nothing to suggest Democrats should panic. Biden won a tough election and beat an incumbent. He’s been a good president so far. He helped the Democrats in the midterms minimize their losses in an almost historic way compared to what normally happens in midterm elections.
The polling right now is meaningless. We should support a good president in our party and help him get reelected. I don’t know why that’s so tough for some people.
I checked some Fall 2011 direction of country polls and you are correct there. But October 2011 was the month when Herman Cain was the GOP nomination front-runner. Swing voters had barely heard of Romney. By contrast, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are the most famous people in the country — and probably the world. Everyone has made up their mind about who they prefer.
A gob smacking highly disturbing fact is that a jury unanimously determined Trump to have vaginally penetrated a woman AKA raped her, in a Fifth Avenue store, and Biden-Trump polls didn’t move. Compare and contrast to how Cain’s polling plummeted when he was accused of sexual harassment. 2023 is not 2011!
I don’t see this as a good or practical consideration for SDMB posting.
Have you read How to Win Friends and Influence People? To go by that book — and I think there is something to it — we would have to jettison debate in favor of attracting and flattering conservative-leaning posters.
There’s no alternate theory of how to beat Trump. Phillips and Uygur certainly haven’t offered one. Biden, on the other hand, did it before, and Trump isn’t an incumbent this time. He might even be in jail!
You might think every voter has made up their minds, but there are probably a few million who don’t even know that Trump was found liable for sexual assault, or that he’s being prosecuted for various crimes. The campaign will undoubtedly hammer that knowledge into them.
Uygur actually said he would base his campaign on the progressive issues that poll the highest among a mix of Democrats and Republicans - things like negotiating prices for prescription drugs that are universally popular. Pragmatism seems to be the watchword here - pushing for a Public Option vs. Medicare for all (which he actually favors, and would support as a next step should the former be adopted).
Biden already does that, more or less. Plus he has a veteran campaign team that already beat Trump.
A serious challenge to Biden means Trump wins. It may happen anyway but I don’t want to ensure it.
Way back in your OP, you shared these concerns you (and, apparently, Uygur) have about Biden:
How do you think a strong primary challenge to Biden will be able to “temper” his age or his “allegiance to donor money?”
And, if you think that dealing with primary challengers will somehow up Biden’s game, and make him more energetic, how does that address “doesn’t matter if they can win debates and look good on the campaign trail, Trump is immune to that and they are all perceived as old style politicians as much as Biden is”?